Fall 2025 WX Discussion Thread

[John1122]

MRX issued a WWA for the Plateau, and OHX did for their Plateau counties as well. 1-2 inches for 1500+, 1 inch for under 1500.

[BuCoVaWx]

Came home from a concert in Pikeville KY on the newly opened stretch of the Coalfields Expressway around midnight. Once I crossed over into the VA side the snow was heavy with poor visibility near Breaks Interstate Park. There is a solid dusting on the ground right now. It will be interesting to see if we pick up anymore later.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I have something between a heavy frost and a crustellation of snow. 

Man the shortwave looks strong:

Hopefully someone gets a nice surprise in the valley. 

[Carvers Gap]

Very light dusting here in Kingsport on the roof tops and mulch.  Shortwave on the 6z RGEM looks strong as Holston noted.

[1234snow]

Looks like a WWA was just issued for several counties but also a Winter Storm Watch. I wonder if the watch was a mistake/glitch.

[housemtnTN]

19 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

Looks like a WWA was just issued for several counties but also a Winter Storm Watch. I wonder if the watch was a mistake/glitch.

My weather app (TWC for samsung) gave me a WSW  earlier this morning but a few mins later it was a WWA. I'm guessing it probably was an error, etc.

[Jed33]

Getting a nice snow shower here this morning. Woohoo! First of the season. Nice little dusting on the car, grass, and leaves.

[Jed33]

26 minutes ago, 1234snow said:

Looks like a WWA was just issued for several counties but also a Winter Storm Watch. I wonder if the watch was a mistake/glitch.

In a very cautious but interesting twist, MRX just put nearly the whole CWA in an advisory. Updated the forecast discussion to mention that they feel the CAM models are correct with numerous snow showers developing between 11AM-3PM and that there is high confidence of heavier bands setting up which will reduce visibility and make travel difficult. They do say they do not have much confidence at all in where the bands will set up. Out of an abundance of caution feel it necessary to issue an advisory. Hmmm that doesn’t sound like the MRX of old haha! Good to see them acknowledge the potential!

[Carvers Gap]

@Holston_River_Ramblerthe NW flow streamer off of Bays Mtn can be seen this AM.  I drove through it on the way to JC.  It is cranking.  For anyone else, just look for the streamer SE of Kingsport along I26.  I hit the stream right at Gray which is where it often sets up.

[tnweathernut]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

@Holston_River_Ramblerthe NW flow streamer off of Bays Mtn can be seen this AM.  I drove through it on the way to JC.  It is cranking.  For anyone else, just look for the streamer SE of Kingsport along I26.  I hit the stream right at Gray which is where it often sets up.

I caught a piece of that into the office this morning.  Nothing at the house, but about a mile east of the house it was ripping.  Nice to put you in the "snow" mood.  I was never impressed with the first part of this event, but really interested to see if the energy pulling through this evening can give a few "streak" surprises.

[Carvers Gap]

37 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

I caught a piece of that into the office this morning.  Nothing at the house, but about a mile east of the house it was ripping.  Nice to put you in the "snow" mood.  I was never impressed with the first part of this event, but really interested to see if the energy pulling through this evening can give a few "streak" surprises.

Same.  That shortwave is what has interested me.   It has been strong on modeling for several days.  We picked up a burst here on Knob Creek in JC which made the ground white a few mins ago.  

[Shocker0]

It's been snowing good all morning here NW of Crossville. It's sticking to the roads now. School is canceled. If it snows enough, I'm planning to drive around and get some rare fall leaf photos in the snow, as long as they didn't all fall yesterday 

[Save the itchy algae!]

I work in Oneida now (used to be Powell) and am enjoying the snow.


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[Shocker0]

I-40 is shut down Monterey westward due to wrecks

 

https://www.facebook.com/share/1BdVdEoyvL/

[midwoodian]

30 F and snowing on the front of Signal Mountain


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[Save the itchy algae!]

Obs thread?


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[nrgjeff]

Maybe so. Getting close to a thread worthy event maybe short-term forecast and obs combo thread. Might not need two for this one though.

Thank you for all the ground truth! Fun to see how everyone is doing and I find it useful for work too.

Indeed another short wave is coming in behind for this afternoon. Bubbly satellite loops show it coming out of Kentucky. Plateau and Mountains should continue going. Maybe some Great Valley North. I don't expect much in Chatty. Still I'm happy for y'all and will enjoy it vicariously. 

[bearman]

We are getting a good snow shower in West Knoxville.

[John1122]

Started and OBS thread, hopefully many of us get the opportunity to post in it this afternoon and evening.

[housemtnTN]

Snow showers in downtown Knoxville.

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies mean today is flat out frigid from just after Thanksgiving (onset TBD) to Christmas), and then hinting at the trough pulling west.  I feel like I have seen that movie before!  The control is the opposite!  So, beware of shoulder season Weeklies.  However, that is a really cold mean at this range.  Yesterday's GEFS Weeklies were similarly cold.  Looks like a PNA or EPO driven cold snap.  It will be interesting to see if we can get November BN for temps...gonna be a close race.

[Carvers Gap]

No particular order.  Just thought I would share some LR ext maps and maybe throw in a seasonal.  I am mainly looking at the time frame from Thanksgiving to Christmas.  I tend to think the cold arrives just after Thanksgiving and holds to just before or right to Christmas.  I think we have a very slight ridge or at least something to turn storms slightly northward if they slide across.  I did throw in one turd burger control run just to show you how different the Euro Weeklies mean and control are.   Pretty strong cold signal overall for early and mid December.   There are much cooler weeks embedded within those 30 day maps.

 

[*Flash*]

So, my wife didn't capture it...but as this vid was recording, our 16' diameter trampoline went airborne behind the house into an open lot ~100 yards away. It was completely shredded upon finding it the next day. Thankfully, our only house damage was to our chimney cover. Still, there were several downed trees, some clearly by lightning strikes, and many disheartened children realizing their playgrounds are now rubble. Santa has time to come through though!

[Daniel Boone]

16 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

No particular order.  Just thought I would share some LR ext maps and maybe throw in a seasonal.  I am mainly looking at the time frame from Thanksgiving to Christmas.  I tend to think the cold arrives just after Thanksgiving and holds to just before or right to Christmas.  I think we have a very slight ridge or at least something to turn storms slightly northward if they slide across.  I did throw in one turd burger control run just to show you how different the Euro Weeklies mean and control are.   Pretty strong cold signal overall for early and mid December.   There are much cooler weeks embedded within those 30 day maps.

 

The last one looks MJO 6 Canonical Nina basically. 

[Carvers Gap]

Today's GFS is the first of the operationals to get Nov 27th in range, albeit waaay out there.  That is generally the earliest part of the potential window for sustained winter cold.  Some modeling waits a few more days.  The 12z GFS fits with what LR ext models have been saying.  Now, we have seen head fakes at exaclty this range and at exactly this time of year during prior years.  We have also seen LR ext models nail the forecast 4-6 weeks out.  The GFS has a knack for spotting patterns at d16 during early winter.  Here is a collection of maps from the morning and afternoon suites.

1. You can see the cold air configuration for DJF.  The CFS flips flops between front loaded and back loaded winters, but generally this shows up regardless.  I title this one "Remember when everyone used to talk about International Falls during cold outbreaks?"

 

2.  The CFS daily runs 4x per day and can offer some fun solutions.  I title this one, "Send it all to Cuba."  This was from 6z.

 

3.  The CFS at 0z gave us this lovely west PAC ridge.  I title this one "Cold and dry."

 

4.  As noted in the intro to this post, the 12z GFS now has Thanksgiving week in range.  I title this one "Didn't we just do this yesterday?"