September 2025 OBS-Discussion centered NYC subforum

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, uofmiami said:

Well you did post yesterday, which I see you since deleted, that the record ridge over SE Canada was going to keep the moisture to our S.  We'll take whatever QPF falls, but this was hinted on some models early Monday morning (6Z Euro, NAM & GFS).  Glad to see some better agreement that they'll be some QPF at least.

almost always a northern correction within 24-36 hrs on these systems....

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Well you did post yesterday, which I see you since deleted, that the record ridge over SE Canada was going to keep the moisture to our S.  We'll take whatever QPF falls, but this was hinted on some models early Monday morning (6Z Euro, NAM & GFS).  Glad to see some better agreement that they'll be some QPF at least.

The Euro AI has been the only model that was showing for many days that the rain would reach our coast. I don't know what the final outcome will be with this but all the models came around to it. Amazing job with the AI Euro sniffing this out days in advance of other models. 

[forkyfork]

the AI has had a bunch of fails too

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 95 (1991)
NYC: 93 (1915)
LGA:  95 (1991)
JFK: 89 (1991)


Lows:

EWR: 42 (1984)
NYC: 47 (1966)
LGA: 48 (1984)
JFK:  48 (1959)

Historical:

1875: A hurricane stuck Indianola, TX killing 176 people. 75% of the town was swept away from the disastrous storm surge. The highest wind registered was 88 mph before the anemometer blew away. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1881 - Iowa's earliest measurable snow of record fell over western sections of the state. Four to six inches was reported between Stuart and Avoca. (The Weather Channel)

 

1888: An estimated F2 tornado struck Washington, DC. The tornado first touched down on the south side of the city then moved up Maryland Avenue. The National Museum and Botanical Gardens were damaged before the tornado lifted off the ground. 

1928 - Hurricane San Felipe, a monster hurricane, which left 600 dead in Guadeloupe, and 300 dead in Puerto Rico, struck West Palm Beach FL causing enormous damage, and then headed for Lake Okeechobee. When the storm was over, the lake covered an area the size of the state of Delaware, and beneath its waters were 2000 victims. The only survivors were those who reached large hotels for safety, and a group of fifty people who got onto a raft to take their chances out in the middle of the lake. (David Ludlum)

1915: Boston, Massachusetts has the warmest minimum temperature of 76 °F for the month of September. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)


1928: The Okeechobee Hurricane, also known as the San Felipe Segundo Hurricane was one of the deadliest hurricanes in the history of the Atlantic basin. This Hurricane made landfall near West Palm Beach, Florida as a Category 4 storm during the evening hours of the 16th. The storm surge caused water to pour out of the southern edge of Lake Okeechobee, flooding hundreds of square miles as high as 20 feet. This storm killed over 4,000 people, including 2,500 in Florida. 

1933: The second major hurricane of the very busy season struck the North Carolina coast near New Bern with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph and a central pressure of 957 millibars or 28.26 inches of mercury. 76 mph winds were reported at Cape Hatteras, NC. 21 people died and significant damage was reported in Virginia and Maryland. Damage was set at $1 million dollars. The Category 3 storm followed on the heels of the damaging Chesapeake – Potomac Hurricane, which struck the coast in late August (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1961 - Hurricane Esther was seeded by Navy planes in the inaugural experiment of what was to formally become Project STORMFURY next year. Esther was the first hurricane to be initially detected by satellite. On Sept. 10th, TIROS III imaged an area of disturbed weather a hundred miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.

1964: Concord, NH recorded a morning low of 27°, making this the shortest growing season on record at just 100 days.(Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1965: Rawlins, WY recorded their greatest daily precipitation on record as 2.06 inches of precipitation fell, including 14.5 inches of snow.(Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1967: Hurricane Doria formed off Florida and moved northeast into the Atlantic. However, it reversed course and moved west to the lower Delmarva coast as a hurricane, then turned southwest, making landfall north of Cape Hatteras, NC as a tropical storm. This is a historic hurricane for two reasons. It was the 1st time on record that a tropical system made landfall north of Cape Hatteras, moving from the northeast. Also on this date, a noteworthy first occurred in satellite photography when Doria, Hurricane Chloe, southeast of Nova Scotia, Canada and Hurricane Beulah, about to move into Mexico’s Yucatan Peninsula, were all photographed on the same orbital pass by ESSA 2. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1971: A record breaking early fall snow storm caused extensive damage to trees and utility lines. The heavy wet snow occurred with little wind but caused record breaking cold temperatures for so early in the season. Snowfall totaled 15.6 inches at Stapleton International Airport with most of the snowfall 12.0 inches occurring on the 17th. This was the heaviest first snow of the season. The maximum snow depth on the ground was 13 inches. Record low temperatures were set on three consecutive days: 31 degrees on the 17th 23 degrees on the 18th and 20 degrees on the 19th which was also a new all-time record minimum for the month at that time. Record low maximum temperatures were set on 4 consecutive days: 48 degrees on the 16th 35 degrees on the 17th 40 degrees on the 18th and 42 degrees on the 19th. Tony Hake Providing Local Weather for Thornton, Colorado (http://www.thorntonweather.com) Early Denver CO Snow

1984 - The remains of Tropical Storm Edourd began to produce torrential rains in the Lower Rio Grande Valley of Texas. Port Isabel reported more than 21 inches. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Overnight rains soaked Arkansas, with 5.25 inches reported at Bismarck. In the town of Malvern, up to four feet of water was reported over several downtown streets, with water entering some homes and businesses. Thunderstorms in Texas drenched Lufkin with 4.30 inches of rain in just three hours. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Missouri. A small tornado near Kirksville lifted a barn thirty feet into the air and then demolished it. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Hurricane Gilbert moved ashore into Mexico. The hurricane established an all-time record for the western hemisphere with a barometric reading of 26.13 inches. Winds approached 200 mph, with higher gusts. Gilbert devastated Jamaica and the Yucatan Peninsula. (The Weather Channel) Hurricane Gilbert made landfall 120 miles south of Brownsville TX during the early evening. Winds gusted to 61 mph at Brownsville, and reached 82 mph at Padre Island. Six foot tides eroded three to four feet off beaches along the Lower Texas Coast, leaving the waterline seventy-five feet farther inland. Rainfall totals ranged up to 8.71 inches at Lamar TX. Gilbert caused three million dollars damage along the Lower Texas Coast, but less than a million dollars damage along the Middle Texas Coast. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Showers and thunderstorms, respresenting what remained of Hurricane Octave, brought locally heavy rains to California, impeding the drying process for raisins and other crops. Sacramento CA was soaked with 1.53 inches of rain in six hours. At Phoenix AZ, the afternoon high of 107 degrees marked a record seventy-six days with afternoon highs 105 degrees or above. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)


1996: Two weeks after Hurricane Fran lashed eastern North Carolina with torrential flooding rains and 115 mph winds, at least three damaging tornadoes spun through the same communities from severe thunderstorms. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1999: The remnants of Hurricane Floyd caused major flooding to North Carolina. More than 10 inches of rain fell in a swath from North Carolina to New Jersey. Many streams in the targeted areas reached 100-year and, in some instances, 500-year predicted levels. It ranks among eastern North Carolina, southeastern Virginia, the central and northern Delmarva Peninsula, and New Jersey's most destructive flood disasters. Floyd's Track - Weather Underground (Ref. More Information About Floyd)

2000: The record high of 95° at Denver, Co set three records: 1.) New record high for the date. 2.) The warmest reading for this late in the year. 3.) It marked the 60th day during the year the temperature reached 90° or above, tying the record set back in 1994. Miles City, MT hit 100°, their latest 100 degree reading on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004 - Hurricane Ivan turned northward over cooler waters, and made landfall in southern Alabama as a Category 3 storm. Hurricane Ivan had a very unusual track almost making a huge circle.

[LibertyBell]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Happy Birthday. The models have an earlier frontal passage now on Friday. So the warmest 850s come through Thursday night. More like low 80s around Friday as the 850s are much lower now during the day than the older model runs.

Thanks Chris, do the models also have warmth on Thursday now, so now it's low 80s on both Thursday and Friday rather than upper 80s on Friday?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe Wdrag's analysis is on the mark with rainfall potential for parts of the area.

The system responsible is an impressive and strengthening coastal low (non-tropical). The guidance can sometimes be too sharp with the cutoff of precipitation. It wouldn't surprise me to see Atlantic City wind up with 0.50"-1.00" to perhaps 1.50" of rain and NYC wind up with around 0.25". I do think we'll see amounts fall off sharply north and west of New York City.

In terms of outcomes, Atlantic City and Georgetown have already received more rainfall than had been expected on the guidance for the 6-hour period that will end at 18z. 

 

Don why isn't it being called a noreaster? Is a coastal low the more PC term now?

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe Wdrag's analysis is on the mark with rainfall potential for parts of the area.

The system responsible is an impressive and strengthening coastal low (non-tropical). The guidance can sometimes be too sharp with the cutoff of precipitation. It wouldn't surprise me to see Atlantic City wind up with 0.50"-1.00" to perhaps 1.50" of rain and NYC wind up with around 0.25". I do think we'll see amounts fall off sharply north and west of New York City.

In terms of outcomes, Atlantic City and Georgetown have already received more rainfall than had been expected on the guidance for the 6-hour period that will end at 18z. 

 

Staten Island and parts of Long Island could get up to an inch of rain.

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Happy birthday.

Thanks Don, I'm glad the sunshine hung around for my birthday!!

[LibertyBell]

11 hours ago, rclab said:

May you continue to ring and of course, post. As always……

 

Thanks RClab, and thanks for the nice birthday present too!!

 

[bluewave]

25 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Well you did post yesterday, which I see you since deleted, that the record ridge over SE Canada was going to keep the moisture to our S.  We'll take whatever QPF falls, but this was hinted on some models early Monday morning (6Z Euro, NAM & GFS).  Glad to see some better agreement that they'll be some QPF at least.

I posted yesterday that the heaviest rain would stay to our south due to the record blocking to our north which is still the case today. I didn’t mention any specific amounts since the models haven’t been very good recently in that regard beyond a few days out

The big picture hasn’t changed much over most of the last year for precipitation. We have been drier than average with the heaviest amounts either completely missing our area or narrowly focusing in a small area like we have seen since May.

The next few days look like more of the same. Some of the wetter models have the .50 line getting closer to NYC which would be nice. But not enough to end the drier pattern even if the wetter models closer to .50 verify.

In my area along the CT Shoreline we had one of the warmest and driest summers. Vegetation has locally been on the brown side to the lack of rainfall. 

 

[uofmiami]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I posted yesterday that the heaviest rain would stay to our south due to the record blocking to our north which is still the case today. I didn’t mention any specific amounts since the models haven’t been very good recently in that regard beyond a few days out

That's why it's deleted but the 90 for Friday posts remain 

[bluewave]

37 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

That's why it's deleted but the 90 for Friday posts remain 

Model forecasts change which is nothing new. I was just pointing out to Liberty who enjoys the summer heat that the models were showing 85°-90° potential near JFK.

Now they have a faster frontal passage so the forecast is for 80-85°.  Still a warm late summer day with a dry downslope flow. Plus these warm downslope flow days usually beat guidance. So a few spots could still see some mid 80s.

Back in August I was saying that the 90° potential probably wasn’t over for the warm spots in NJ which turned out to be correct this month.

Maybe you should try posting some of your own ideas instead of being more concerned about trying to play gotcha games. I notice that you only chime on the few occasions that the warmest guidance doesn’t verify. But are usually silent when warmth beats guidance.
 

[uofmiami]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Maybe you should try posting some of your own ideas instead of being more concerned about trying to play gotcha games. 

I do, I busted horribly back in fall of last year calling for a cooler November, as I recall.  It's called forecasting, you'll never be correct all the time in weather.  I just don't delete my posts when the forecast of it ends up incorrect.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

I do, I busted horribly back in fall of last year calling for a cooler November, as I recall.  It's called forecasting, you'll never be correct all the time in weather.  I just don't delete my posts when the forecast of it ends up incorrect.

The only posts I have deleted contain specific model forecast charts which can become outdated after only 1 run at times. I don’t like leaving inaccurate model information up when there is newer information available. But I never delete my forecast ideas which you can always go back and find in all the threads. 

[Brian5671]

Breezy,  mostly cloudy and 73 here...will be a close call to get any rain here-12z runs are right on the edge.   LI/NYC and most of Jersey do ok.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don why isn't it being called a noreaster? Is a coastal low the more PC term now?

 

Coastal low is a broad term for the system. Nor'easters are coastal lows. 

[anthonymm]

Wow I really hope we don't torch the last several days of the month. I need to be outside all day and I'd rather not sweat my a*s off in mid 80s temps.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Staten Island and parts of Long Island could get up to an inch of rain.

 

Belmar and perhaps Staten Island could see an inch. I think amounts will be less on Long Island, though.

[Stormlover74]

Wind is picking up

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Wind is picking up

this is definitely going to be a noreaster and not a *coastal low*

coastal low is the most PC term I can think of

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

I posted yesterday that the heaviest rain would stay to our south due to the record blocking to our north which is still the case today. I didn’t mention any specific amounts since the models haven’t been very good recently in that regard beyond a few days out

The big picture hasn’t changed much over most of the last year for precipitation. We have been drier than average with the heaviest amounts either completely missing our area or narrowly focusing in a small area like we have seen since May.

The next few days look like more of the same. Some of the wetter models have the .50 line getting closer to NYC which would be nice. But not enough to end the drier pattern even if the wetter models closer to .50 verify.

In my area along the CT Shoreline we had one of the warmest and driest summers. Vegetation has locally been on the brown side to the lack of rainfall. 

 

I wish August into September had been warmer, but the real heat ended after July.

[LibertyBell]

40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Breezy,  mostly cloudy and 73 here...will be a close call to get any rain here-12z runs are right on the edge.   LI/NYC and most of Jersey do ok.

This feels like winter and wondering where the cut off will be lol.

Either way, if this kind of system happens in the winter, there will be a lot of hair being pulled out watching ACY get 20 inches of snow while this area probably wouldn't even reach 6 inches.
 

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This feels like winter and wondering where the cut off will be lol.

Either way, if this kind of system happens in the winter, there will be a lot of hair being pulled out watching ACY get 20 inches of snow while this area probably wouldn't even reach 6 inches.
 

there would be lots of wishcasting, posting of every model run, and radar hallucinations lol

[LibertyBell]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

there would be lots of wishcasting, posting of every model run, and radar hallucinations lol

Ant would be quite prolific lol

[anthonymm]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wish August into September had been warmer, but the real heat ended after July.

Dont worry, we sizzle this friday and the last week of september + first half of october.

[Sundog]

Models are wishy washy with how much rain falls up here

They mostly all bring the low up here to affect us, they just differ in how much rain actually falls once it's here. 

[Brian5671]

9 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Models are wishy washy with how much rain falls up here

They mostly all bring the low up here to affect us, they just differ in how much rain actually falls once it's here. 

Looks scattered and models won't be able to hone in on the exact areas that get a good downpour-obviously NYC S and E favored

[jm1220]

2 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

almost always a northern correction within 24-36 hrs on these systems....

Not always. Sometimes in these confluence situations the northern edge is too far north since dry air just eats away the precip. If the ridge or confluence to the north ends up weaker, the precip can climb north. 

[donsutherland1]

The 9/16 12z HREF:

[MANDA]

36 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The 9/16 12z HREF:

That looks reasonable for up in my area.  I'm thinking along the lines of .10 - .20" at most up this way.