O'Brother Septorcher

[Damage In Tolland]

22 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Saturday brings the better
chance of some severe storms as instability increases and lift
arrives in the form of a cold front. Details will ride on exact
timing and stregth of this front, how unstable we can get ahead of
it, etc.

It’s Stein . There is zero severe threat 

[dendrite]

82/50 at CON today. Avg 66…normal 66. Right on the money.

[Torch Tiger]

56 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s Stein . There is zero severe threat 

Should be a wild day

[SJonesWX]

5 hours ago, Lava Rock said:

planned for some overseeding/new seeding this Fall, but not looking like it'll happen. Don't want to tax the well

Got mine done over the weekend. Hope the well holds up during the stein

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Loving these cirrus with fallstreaks to the north right now.

Wispy Steinrrus

[CoastalWx]

15 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Should be a wild day

More NNE. Let’s end Brian’s drought with his roof blown off.

[Torch Tiger]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

More NNE. Let’s end Brian’s drought with his roof blown off.

60kt microburst with .06" rain.  ha

[Torch Tiger]

gfs/ggem more W/NW timing for Saturday, Euro op timing is really good for most though.  I'm interested. Hodos look more straight than a few days ago, though...was hoping for a few sups with the better dynamics and wind field

 

[Damage In Tolland]

51 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

Should be a wild day

Not in SNE . Forcing and dynamics all north. Pattern has flipped to wetter NNE

[Torch Tiger]

Yeah I was looking at Euro AI, op looks like crap besides NW.  Hopefully WNE/CNE/NNE gets something.

[CoastalWx]

55 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said:

60kt microburst with .06" rain.  ha

We PHX

[Torch Tiger]

That's all we got.  Steintember

[Snowedin]

11 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Our feeders are filled too, fascinating birds, I love watching them.

Without a doubt! I was reading a couple postings recently that mentioned how the females actually leave first, then the males and finally the juveniles. But I’m still seeing a good number of all types so maybe they’ve yet to make the journey south. Either way, I’m leaving mine up until the last stragglers head on out, especially if this month is mostly mild.

[Snowedin]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

82/50 at CON today. Avg 66…normal 66. Right on the money.

It’s crazy how the dry air really allows temps to take off during the day and of course, drop off just as fast in the evening when the sun sets. Reminds me of the first half of April.

[kdxken]

16 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Where's the early Fall? #Moregarbage.

 

[dendrite]

Funny because I thought the modeling looked warmer in the extended overnight…more signs of persistent ridging and fewer cold intrusions. 

[CoastalWx]

7 minutes ago, kdxken said:

 

Guy uses CPC probability forecasts. Fucking joke. Enjoy 84-88 with dews Saturday in this frigid pattern.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dendrite said:

Funny because I thought the modeling looked warmer in the extended overnight…more signs of persistent ridging and fewer cold intrusions. 

Yep. 

[powderfreak]

27 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Guy uses CPC probability forecasts. Fucking joke. Enjoy 84-88 with dews Saturday in this frigid pattern.

Only if they are below/blue.  Not sure he posts ones that show AN, ha.

[CoastalWx]

Friday and Saturday look quite warm and humid.

[qg_omega]

On 9/2/2025 at 7:29 AM, CoastalWx said:

Looks like a mild and boring month coming up. 

COC as far as the eye can see

[dendrite]

NWS has flakes in the forecast for the arrowhead of MN…pretty wild for 9/4.

[Typhoon Tip]

I suspect there are competing forces going on right under anyone's awareness. 

There's been trough anchored over Quebec, and static confluence parking a low thermodynamic surface ridge right over head, which really shuts off continental heat conveyors from getting in here.  while there is 540 DM heights and even grapple/wet snow over the NP of Michigan and probably hard frosts N of the ST Lawrence Sea Way up there NW of Maine. 

This pattern is not a warm one when/if that is the case, but the stalled sfc ridging combining with aspect of CC are combining to host modest H850 warm anomalies/heights to stall over our sub-continental space.  Like a sub-anomaly.  As an interesting aside, these stalled highs were always part of autumn climatology last century, usually in October and associated with Indian Summers in Novembers, too.  Anyway, so we're approaching 80 in the afternoons, during these above other circumstances outside our region due to a semi-coherent +PNA. It's more unusual than some may know.

There's also another dimension to this worldly change that is under the radar:  warm intrusions, which can and do happen even in cooler profiled hemispheres, are warmer than they were 30 years ago.   Two consecutive days of hydrostatic heights nearing or even exceeding 570 dm, like the consensus appeal the models have for this Fri/Sat window, is getting late in climo and thus "seems" like a warmer than normal pattern.  But it's just a warm sector during a cool index mode ... still is taking place in the midst of at least a modest +PNA with the 'real' heat packed back west over the western continent.  In 1990, that'd be 74 with 62 dps probably. 

So how does one separate the two?   which is it?  Is it a warmer than normal pattern... or is the pattern just over-producing a warm transience in cool hemisphere, because CC is obfuscating what's really going on along with everyone's ability to understand what is really happening?   

I really need to see a -PNA with a neutral EPO actually manifest, otherwise ... we are over performing warmth in a cool larger sense of it. As far as this Margrave whatever you spell him, I suspect he has a chilly functional bias, yeah... Upon sensing the abstraction of any cooler anything, his willingness to pounce is a bit transparent to and annoying.  So, we he detects a +PNA lurking in the "subplot" of the models, but is going to probably stop where ever the cool quotient is seen - and thus not seeing these competing deeper aspects. Because the saga of 2025's late summer and now early autumn is deeper and more complex than those CPCs charts.  Which, it's not clear he understands the difference between 60% chance of cooler than normal, vs blue colors intending to actually say it will be cooler than normal.  For some reason... how to use those charts doesn't get learned by people.  That means there's a 40% chance it will be above normal, btw - 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, dendrite said:

NWS has flakes in the forecast for the arrowhead of MN…pretty wild for 9/4.

Deep trough in plains and srly flow here. Signs of winter pattern. 

[metagraphica]

55/53 IMBY.  Fake cold I guess. I see a bunch of stations all around that are in the low to mid 60's.  66 at KSNC!

[Damage In Tolland]

We warned em 

[dendrite]

Min 51.5°….CON 50°

Getting to the point where that isn’t much BN anymore. 

[Typhoon Tip]

At a glance that synoptic layout overnight Sunday night into early Monday morning looks like a decoupling frost fest in the interior from NE PA to SNE and up, but the 2-m progs stall at 42-ish.   I wonder if the same aspect with 2-m in the models, where they're too cool on warm extended outlooks applies the other way, and they don't do the decoupling thing on the other end of the temp progs. 

[CoastalWx]

54.8 here for the low. 

 

Saturday could be interesting up north. Some areas could get soaked. 

[Damage In Tolland]

18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

54.8 here for the low. 

 

Saturday could be interesting up north. Some areas could get soaked. 

South?