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NYC/PHL Dec 26-27 Boxing Day Blizzard Part 8

NickD2011

By NickD2011,
in New York City Metro

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Drz1111

Drz1111

Posted
Posted

Someone should save the WV loop for one of those threads where someone asks, "What does phasing look like?" This is what it looks like.

Amazingly, of the set of big storms in this decade, PDII to now, this is shaping up to be potentially the best, with lots of snow AND wind, no temp/mixing issues, and nice daytime timing for the first leg, at least. It's sort of an embarrassment of riches that we can start to grade between better and worse blizzards, but this one is really the complete package. If we're about to embark on another decade-long drought like post 1983, this isn't a bad way to go out!

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am19psu

am19psu

Posted
Posted

am19psu- Any thoughts on increasing/decreasing chances of deformation banding in PHIL/eastern 'burbs, based on latest data/trending?

Wherever the deformation band sets up is going to get crushed. My guess is that it will be from C NJ north through NYC then across CT, but I've never made a skillful mesoscale forecast. It's just not what I'm good at.

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NorthShoreWx

NorthShoreWx

Posted
Posted

Yeah, this is coming a little bit west of what the 12z models were showing already. I don't think anybody in our area has serious dry slot issues yet...but if I were on Montauk I might be watching carefully.

Yeah, I don't think its us, but with the storm tucked tight to the coast, some areas to the east could see lighter qpf. I edited the post to clarify maybe MTP to the cape.

Believe me...I'm more up for this one than I was for some of the other recent biggies. I've had very high expectations since Friday...pulled the trigger early for friends and family (more than a foot, 'B' word)...although I really had my doubts before Friday.

Its the winds I'm really waiting for...this should be the best we've seen since '78. We've already jumped to the next level ...from snow blowing off of roofs to curls of snow blowing along the street. I'll be offline this afternoon because I'm going out...not going to watch the whole thing on a monitor :) Cameras will be in tow. The bluffs on the sound a copuple of miles from here are always a great place for some video in a blizzard.

Side note: being on LI, we have to deal with lots of changeovers...but one of the compensating factors is the winds we get in these beasts. That and some enhancement almost makes it all worthwhile.

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A-L-E-X

A-L-E-X

Posted
Posted

Yeah, I don't think its us, but with the storm tuckied tight to the coast, some areas to the east could see lighter qpf. I edited the post to clarify maybe MTP to the cape.

Believe me...I'm more up for this one than I was for some of the other recent biggies. I've had very high expectations since Friday...pulled the trigger early for friends and family (more than a foot, 'B' word)...although I really had my doubts before Friday.

Its the winds I'm really waiting for...this should be the best we've seen since '78. We've already jumped to the next level ...from snow blowing off of roofs to curls of snow blowing along the street. I'll be offline this afternoon because I'm going out...not going to watch the whole thing on a monitor :) Cameras will be in tow. The bluffs on the sound a copuple of miles from here are always a great place for some video in a blizzard.

Side note: being on LI, we have to deal with lots of changeovers...but one of the compensating factors is the winds we get in these beasts. That and some enhancement almost makes it all worthwhile.

How were your winds in Jan 1996? I consider that my windiest-- so far. The snowstorms last winter were very windy too.

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Chris L

Chris L

Posted
Posted

How were your winds in Jan 1996? I consider that my windiest-- so far. The snowstorms last winter were very windy too.

My father and Uncle claim that JAN 1996 blizzard is the windest snowstorm still after all these years... Let hope we can do better than that in the wind department.

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earthlight

earthlight

Posted
Posted

Wow, Upton is really going nuts for my location. I don't think I've seen this before.

This Afternoon: Snow and widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 27. Blustery, with a north wind between 18 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow and widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 19. Windy, with a north wind between 24 and 26 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.

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joey

joey

Posted
Posted

Ace- here comes a powerful band: http://www.wunderground.com/radar/radblast.asp?zoommode=pan&prevzoom=zoom&num=6&frame=0&delay=15&scale=0.224&noclutter=0&ID=DIX&type=N0R&showstorms=10&lat=40.83667374&lon=-74.10268402&label=East%20Rutherford,%20NJ&map.x=400&map.y=240&scale=0.224&centerx=190&centery=619&showlabels=1&rainsnow=0&lightning=0&lerror=20&num_stns_min=2&num_stns_max=9999&avg_off=9999&smooth=0

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rcostell

rcostell

Posted
Posted

Wherever the deformation band sets up is going to get crushed. My guess is that it will be from C NJ north through NYC then across CT, but I've never made a skillful mesoscale forecast. It's just not what I'm good at.

Appreciate your time in answering a newb. Heaviest intensity of day in Haddon Heights, Camden County. Hoping to show my son what a "deformation band" can put down. He missed the biggies last year. I can NOT believe we are so lucky to see this type storm again this next year!

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Blizzardo

Blizzardo

Posted
Posted

Wow, Upton is really going nuts for my location. I don't think I've seen this before.

This Afternoon: Snow and widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 27. Blustery, with a north wind between 18 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 38 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible.

Tonight: Snow and widespread blowing snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 19. Windy, with a north wind between 24 and 26 mph, with gusts as high as 49 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible.

they got 15-25" for my totals...lol

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NorthShoreWx

NorthShoreWx

Posted
Posted

of the set of big storms in this decade, PDII to now, this is shaping up to be potentially the best

The strong signal for a 970ish low significantly to our south is something none of the others had in common. They usually blow up like that after passing to the northeast and we get a significant % of snowfall from overrunning before the low gets cranking. Mainly commahead / deformation snows with sick winds will be the story this time.

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