Tracking the tropics - 2025

[Torch Tiger]

I really want an Oct. 1991 redux.  but grace were a cat 5 injected from the SW more, and a rounded/phase track like Sandy.  It's a weenie Hazel/Sandy/38 type thing 

[CoastalWx]

This may be the most boring tropical season in decades 

[WxWatcher007]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

This may be the most boring tropical season in decades 

2013? lol 

In all seriousness though, might be primed for a hybrid in the coming week to ten days.

[Typhoon Tip]

The global numerical guidance have been formulating a mid and upper level vortex along the M/A for several days worth of cycles...  It's unclear why they are so deep at the surface, however...when there's only modest at best baroclinic instability below the 700 mb in that region astride the M/A.  You need the fuller vertical integration to succeed a sub 990 mb -type powerful cyclone genesis.   mmm, so I'm a bit suspect of the Euro/GGEM/GFS as being too amplified.  They could be right .. but I also think a 00z UKMET -type solution is more possible. 

This is based on a couple of concepts. 

One, modeling tends to too much amplitude beyond D6 as a standard correction ... They'll lose some 20 ... 30% kinematic layout as that time range comes into the D4s.  How many times has the d-drip euphoria of the D8 bomb turned into a 4-6" jack in the winter for example. 

Two, if there's a hybrid lurking in destiny, it would probably have to come from a weaker initial 500 mb closure than the Euro-like solutions are presently selling.  It's almost like 'thermodynamic momentum'   Pig extra-tropical gyres have a lot of cooler mass/momentum, so it takes longer to modify the kinematics toward a warm profile.   If the initial trigger is a weaker mid level instability, the machinery (outflow aloft) from ongoing festering convection instantiates and starts to feedback with inflow into festering convection ... conversion doesn't have as much to overcome.   In some rare cases, a stronger initially cold core gyre may transition, provided the surrounding hemisphere is very supportive ( 1990 "perfect storm" scenario).  So it's not impossible - but rareness immediately assumes 'less likely' in this case.