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Hurricane Erin - 75 mph - 993 mb - WNW @ 17

BarryStantonGBP
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Predict her peak  

28 members have voted

  1. 1. Predict Erin’s peak

    • Tropical storm
      0
    • Category 1
      1
    • Category 2
      3
    • Category 3
      9
    • Category 4
      15
    • Category 5
      0

  2. 2. Will Erin landfall?

    • Yes (CONUS)
      3
    • Yes (Canada)
      5
    • Yes (Bermuda including brush)
      3
    • Yes (The Caribbean)
      0
    • No
      9

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dbullsfan
dbullsfan

I’m sure a lot of us quietly would love a storm to track and love the natural beauty of big storms, but maybe don’t openly act so excited and seemingly be rooting for a devastating storm. Real lives a

Boston Bulldog
Boston Bulldog

I would strongly advise against using telescoping hurricane models, such as HAFS, or the now depreciated HWRF model, until an actual system has formed. These models will key in on spurious or hal

WxWatcher007
WxWatcher007

Pay attention to the super ensemble

Posted Images

GaWx

GaWx

Posted
Posted

0Z UKMET shifted a bit E with recurve at 69.6W (vs 71.9W on 12Z) meaning passing by closer to Bermuda: 

TROPICAL STORM ERIN       ANALYSED POSITION : 17.1N  51.9W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 15.08.2025    0  17.1N  51.9W     1004            34
    1200UTC 15.08.2025   12  18.0N  55.1W     1003            37
    0000UTC 16.08.2025   24  19.5N  58.1W     1001            39
    1200UTC 16.08.2025   36  20.3N  61.6W      999            41
    0000UTC 17.08.2025   48  20.8N  64.4W      996            40
    1200UTC 17.08.2025   60  21.4N  66.5W      992            46
    0000UTC 18.08.2025   72  22.5N  67.7W      989            48
    1200UTC 18.08.2025   84  24.1N  68.7W      987            50
    0000UTC 19.08.2025   96  25.9N  69.2W      985            52
    1200UTC 19.08.2025  108  27.5N  69.4W      983            57
    0000UTC 20.08.2025  120  29.4N  69.6W      979            60
    1200UTC 20.08.2025  132  31.7N  68.7W      971            64
    0000UTC 21.08.2025  144  33.8N  67.2W      964            70
    1200UTC 21.08.2025  156  35.8N  64.0W      960            73
    0000UTC 22.08.2025  168  37.6N  59.0W      954            75
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  • Scott747 changed the title to Tropical Storm Erin - 70 mph - WNW @ 17
  • BarryStantonGBP changed the title to Tropical Storm Erin - NOW 70 MPH
  • BarryStantonGBP changed the title to Tropical Storm Erin - 70 MPH - 81 MPH IN FL RECORDED AT RECON
  • BarryStantonGBP changed the title to Tropical Storm Erin - 70 MPH - 81 MPH FL / 75 MPH SFMR @ PENETRATION
BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

Posted
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Posted
7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Copied from another BB: 998 mb is a pretty high SLP for a hurricane:
 

First hurricane of 2025 season


 

AL, 05, 2025081512, , BEST, 0, 180N, 553W, 65, 998, HU

GOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAALLLLLLL

 

Hurricane ERIN
As of 12:00 UTC Aug 15, 2025:
 

Location: 18.0°N 55.3°W
Maximum Winds: 65 kt  Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 998 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 15 nm
64 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:
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  • BarryStantonGBP changed the title to HURRICANE ERIN C1 65 KTS - CONFIRMED BY RECON LADS
  • BarryStantonGBP changed the title to TROPICAL STORM ERIN - RECON AND BEST TRACK CLAIM SHE IS A 65 KTS HURRICANE
  • Scott747 changed the title to TROPICAL STORM ERIN - Expected upgrade to hurricane at 11
NJwx85

NJwx85

Posted
Posted

Another shift West with the 12z spaghetti models. They all now make it to at least 70 W before recurving. The vort that eventually kicks this out should be onshore tomorrow so hopefully the we’ll get a better consensus by Sunday.

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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Erin - 75 mph - WNW @ 18
Wannabehippie

Wannabehippie

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 15
Location: 18.2°N 56.1°W
Moving: WNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 996 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

I was just about to post the same thing. LOL.

TS watches are up for the northernmost Leeward Islands.
Looks like there is still some dry air being entrained in, which is probably why Erin is not intensifying faster.

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WxWatcher007

WxWatcher007

Posted
Posted

Forecast to be 120kt in 72 hours, so this should take off once it can shake off possible dry air entrainment.  

Hurricane Erin Discussion Number  17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL052025
1100 AM AST Fri Aug 15 2025
 
Erin has become better organized during the past several hours. The 
last few NOAA and Air Force Reserve aircraft passes through the 
cyclone have indicated the formation of an eyewall, with the Air 
Force Reserve aircraft reporting 700-mb flight-level winds of 75 kt 
northeast of the center. In addition, conventional satellite imagery 
shows the development of a central dense overcast, and a recently 
received WSFM microwave overpass shows a well-defined ring of 
shallow to moderate convection in the 37 GHz imagery.  Based on 
these data, the initial intensity is increased to 65 kt and Erin 
becomes the first hurricane of the 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

The initial motion is 290/15. The subtropical ridge to the north 
will continue to steer Erin west-northwestward into the weekend. 
Encroaching mid-latitude westerly flow is forecast to cause a 
weakness to develop in the ridge during the latter part of the 
forecast period, and this will result in the hurricane gradually 
turning northwestward and northward by 120 h. The guidance remains 
in fairly good agreement through about 60-72 hours. After that time, 
there are some differences in both the forward speed and cross-track 
spread with the turn toward the north. The regional hurricane models 
again lie along the western edge of the guidance envelope, while the 
GFS and Google DeepMind models remain on the eastern edge. Although 
still spread, the guidance envelope has not shifted significantly 
since the last advisory, and the new track forecast is an update of 
the previous forecast. There is still uncertainty about what impacts 
Erin may bring to portions of the Bahamas, the east coast of the 
United States, and Bermuda in the long range.

Erin is currently in a favorable environment for strengthening, 
although there are some uncertainties on whether dry air is 
entraining into the core. The improved low-level structure 
indicates potential for rapid strengthening, and based on this the 
first 36-48 h of the new intensity forecast shows a faster 
development rate.  After 48 h, the hurricane is forecast to 
encounter some northerly to northwesterly vertical shear that should 
at least slow development. However, the global and regional 
hurricane models are in good agreement that Erin will become a 
powerful and increasingly large hurricane over the southwestern 
Atlantic over the weekend and into next week. It should be noted 
that the the Florida State SuperEnsemble and the US Navy COAMPS-TC 
models forecast higher peak intensities than the official forecast, 
so it would not be too surprising if Erin became stronger than 
currently forecast.
 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall tonight through Sunday across the northern Leeward 
Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico may lead to isolated 
and locally considerable flash and urban flooding, along with 
landslides or mudslides.
 
2. Tropical storm conditions are possible for portions of the 
northern Leeward Islands, where Tropical Storm Watches are in 
effect, beginning on Saturday as the core of Erin passes north of 
those islands.  Gusts to tropical storm force are possible in 
rainbands over portions of the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico later 
in the weekend.
 
3. While the threat of direct impacts in the Bahamas and along the 
east coast of the United States appears to be gradually decreasing, 
there will still be a significant risk of dangerous surf and rip 
currents along western Atlantic beaches next week.

4.  Interests in Bermuda should continue to monitor the progress of 
Erin since there is still a risk of strong winds, heavy rainfall, 
and high surf by the middle part of next week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 18.2N  56.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 18.9N  58.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 19.8N  61.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 20.6N  63.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 21.6N  66.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  18/0000Z 22.7N  67.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 23.8N  69.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 26.5N  70.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 30.3N  71.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
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  • BarryStantonGBP changed the title to OI OI! WE'VE GOT HURRICANE ERIN LADS - 75 MPH / 996 MB
BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

Posted
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OI LADS GTFIH NOW I JUST SAW THIS WHILE IN SPOONS

LASSIE EXPECTED TO BE A CATEGORY 4

  

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  15/1500Z 18.2N  56.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 18.9N  58.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 19.8N  61.4W   90 KT 105 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 20.6N  63.8W  105 KT 120 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 21.6N  66.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 60H  18/0000Z 22.7N  67.9W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 23.8N  69.2W  120 KT 140 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 26.5N  70.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 30.3N  71.0W  110 KT 125 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Beven
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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Erin - 75 mph - 996 mb - WNW @ 18
BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

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37 minutes ago, wthrmn654 said:

I'm sorry but does anyone know what staton is saying 90%of the time? 

34 minutes ago, audioguy3107 said:

There is a lot of keyboard yelling.

It's called tracking the tropics with a pint at Spoons mate. Now let's watch Erin score some category 5 goals

image.thumb.png.a59d4a0272aba0069d2eea8da1a5bfa4.png

 

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BarryStantonGBP

BarryStantonGBP

Posted
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Posted

another quote from another forum

 

USTropics
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 2663
Joined: Sun Aug 12, 2007 3:45 am
Location: Florida State University

Re: ATL: ERIN - Hurricane - Discussion

  •  

#419 by USTropics » Fri Aug 15, 2025 12:58 pm 

eastcoastFL wrote:Last night's disco talked about the potential of an EWRC expanding the size of Erin significantly. I wonder how that will play in how much the Bahamas are affected.


I feel much better about the Bahamas and United States after the 12z data has come in, we're looking at some potential squalls, significant riptides, and beach erosion as the main concern here for the islands and United States (Bermuda is still a bit unknown right now, but looking better). Here is the latest 10-run GFS trend with the 12z data (which has the strongest Erin yet in 72 hours):

Image

Image

So basically the strength and position of the high pressure (red) and ridge extension (pink) determines the recurve alley (purple) here, not so much the strength of Erin. The best way to see potential scenarios is to look at the ensemble runs, and that will give us an idea of what different strengths of Erin means to the track.


GEFS was the last remaining ensemble suite that was showing a more gradual turn to the north, and as a result some ensemble members were impacting the Bahamas or the potential for a Carolina scrape. The 12z GFS ensembles has only one remaining member that is doing this gradual turn now (and it does not impact the Bahamas or Carolinas directly):
Image

Compared to 06z ensembles:
Image

Here are 06z ECMWF ensemble members:
Image
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  • Scott747 changed the title to Hurricane Erin - 75 mph - 993 mb - WNW @ 17

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