Hurricane Erin - NOW 130 MPH AND 948 MB

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Boston Bulldog said:

I don’t think the dual blob structure is going to preclude Erin’s RI. The southerly mass of thunderstorms should either dissipate or form into a curved band. Even if it doesn’t, we’ve seen powerful hurricanes with a second convective mass such as Matthew. Honestly Matthew was a fascinating storm, I’m sure there are great papers discussing its structure. Not sure what caused it

Very impressed with Erin’s gigantic ventilation right now, the anticyclonic outflow is sprawling across all quadrants 

Outflow is textbook. If it weren’t for some dry air intrusion we could see some insane RI. Even still heading towards 29/30c water temps should allow a shot at 135kt. 

[hawkeye_wx]

Down to 975 mb.

[Diggiebot]

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

Down to 975 mb.

Consolation this will be a great hurricane to watch 

[Boston Bulldog]

Erin is about to put on a show.

 

[WxWatcher007]

As @Boston Bulldogsaid, Erin is taking off. 

After struggling with SAL and drier air, Erin looks to have mixed that out and organized substantially, with a closed eyewall for hours now per recon, much better vertical alignment, and a tightening RMW. In the image below, note how the first pass had a weaker sampling of winds in the southern half of the storm, but subsequent passes now show a more symmetrical distribution of strongest winds in the eyewall. 

As the NHC notes, the environment is conducive for explosive intensification. Wind shear is low for now, the outflow continues to become more impressive, and moisture looks like much less of an issue. 

 

The islands, even though there are likely to be some impacts, are incredibly fortunate that they are not in the direct path of what is going to become a buzzsaw in the next 24-36 hours. 

[GaWx]

4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

As @Boston Bulldogsaid, Erin is taking off. 

After struggling with SAL and drier air, Erin looks to have mixed that out and organized substantially, with a closed eyewall for hours now per recon, much better vertical alignment, and a tightening RMW. In the image below, note how the first pass had a weaker sampling of winds in the southern half of the storm, but subsequent passes now show a more symmetrical distribution of strongest winds in the eyewall. 

As the NHC notes, the environment is conducive for explosive intensification. Wind shear is low for now, the outflow continues to become more impressive, and moisture looks like much less of an issue. 

 

The islands, even though there are likely to be some impacts, are incredibly fortunate that they are not in the direct path of what is going to become a buzzsaw in the next 24-36 hours. 

Is there any significance to the 2nd area of deep convection to the SW of the main area?

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Is there any significance to the 2nd area of deep convection to the SW of the main area?

I don't believe so. It looks like Erin's core isn't being hindered at all by it. 

Dropsonde in the NW eyewall measured 89kt at the surface and 99kt just off the deck at 925mb. 

[TriPol]

2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I don't believe so. It looks like Erin's core isn't being hindered at all by it. 

Dropsonde in the NW eyewall measured 89kt at the surface and 99kt just off the deck at 925mb. 

9...25??? Is that right?

[Windspeed]

9...25??? Is that right?

He meant at the 925 mb flight level. Not at the surface.

At any rate, faster than steady intensification continues, but the lid is about to come off. Expect rapid deepening through Saturday and high-end Category 4 type intensity until outer banding consolidates. Given the regional environment and outflow pattern, Erin most likely will grow into a large size hurricane by Tuesday. So expect several replacement cycles with periods of reintensification in-between.

[BarryStantonGBP]

MATE WTF IS ON WITH THIS LASS DID SHE JUST DUNK HER HEAD IN KET IN AYIA NAPA

Hurricane Erin	Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive
...ERIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 19.8°N 61.1°W Moving: WNW at 20 mph Min pressure: 955 mb Max sustained: 120 mph

week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 19.8N  61.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 20.3N  63.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 21.1N  65.6W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 22.1N  67.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 23.3N  68.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  18/1800Z 24.6N  69.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 26.2N  70.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 29.9N  70.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  21/0600Z 34.7N  68.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 

[BarryStantonGBP]

3 minutes ago, BarryStantonGBP said:

MATE WTF IS ON WITH THIS LASS DID SHE JUST DUNK HER HEAD IN KET IN AYIA NAPA

 

Hurricane Erin	Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive
...ERIN RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING... ...OUTER RAINBANDS BEGINNING TO AFFECT THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS... 5:00 AM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 19.8°N 61.1°W Moving: WNW at 20 mph Min pressure: 955 mb Max sustained: 120 mph

week.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  16/0900Z 19.8N  61.1W  105 KT 120 MPH
 12H  16/1800Z 20.3N  63.3W  130 KT 150 MPH
 24H  17/0600Z 21.1N  65.6W  130 KT 150 MPH
 36H  17/1800Z 22.1N  67.5W  125 KT 145 MPH
 48H  18/0600Z 23.3N  68.8W  120 KT 140 MPH
 60H  18/1800Z 24.6N  69.8W  115 KT 130 MPH
 72H  19/0600Z 26.2N  70.5W  110 KT 125 MPH
 96H  20/0600Z 29.9N  70.9W  105 KT 120 MPH
120H  21/0600Z 34.7N  68.0W   95 KT 110 MPH
 

BLOODY HELL I just woke up and saw Éowyn uh I meant Erin becoming a bloody category 3, and a mid-range one at that innit

 

[BarryStantonGBP]

Been cooking right

GET BACK IN THE KITCHEN ERIN AND MAKE ME SOME SCRAN

It’s breakfast so gimme a full English with korma on the side

anyway she’s been cooking a lot while i was asleep

[BarryStantonGBP]

GOOOOOOOOAAAAAAALLLLLLLL

ERIN SCORED A FAT CAT 4 

NOW COOK ME SOME MORE SCRAN 

 

Hurricane Erin	Satellite | Buoys | Grids | Storm Archive
...NOAA HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND ERIN A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE... 5:50 AM AST Sat Aug 16 Location: 19.6°N 61.5°W Moving: WNW at 20 mph Min pressure: 948 mb Max sustained: 130 mph

[BarryStantonGBP]

4 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said:

As @Boston Bulldogsaid, Erin is taking off. 

After struggling with SAL and drier air, Erin looks to have mixed that out and organized substantially, with a closed eyewall for hours now per recon, much better vertical alignment, and a tightening RMW. In the image below, note how the first pass had a weaker sampling of winds in the southern half of the storm, but subsequent passes now show a more symmetrical distribution of strongest winds in the eyewall. 

As the NHC notes, the environment is conducive for explosive intensification. Wind shear is low for now, the outflow continues to become more impressive, and moisture looks like much less of an issue. 

 

The islands, even though there are likely to be some impacts, are incredibly fortunate that they are not in the direct path of what is going to become a buzzsaw in the next 24-36 hours. 

OI LAD SHE’S A C4 NOW