ERIN (40 KTS)

[GaWx]

12Z UKMET: further W than the 0Z’s recurve at 63.3W with a threat to Bermuda as it ends the run moving NNW:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 24 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 24 : 17.8N 35.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2025 24 17.8N 35.1W 1008 30
0000UTC 13.08.2025 36 17.3N 39.1W 1007 30
1200UTC 13.08.2025 48 17.1N 42.2W 1006 28
0000UTC 14.08.2025 60 17.8N 44.6W 1007 29
1200UTC 14.08.2025 72 19.4N 48.1W 1007 32
0000UTC 15.08.2025 84 20.8N 51.7W 1008 31
1200UTC 15.08.2025 96 21.4N 55.0W 1007 30
0000UTC 16.08.2025 108 22.0N 57.9W 1006 34
1200UTC 16.08.2025 120 22.3N 60.2W 1003 43
0000UTC 17.08.2025 132 23.4N 62.8W 1002 44
1200UTC 17.08.2025 144 25.0N 64.3W 1001 47
0000UTC 18.08.2025 156 26.0N 65.4W 999 45
1200UTC 18.08.2025 168 27.5N 66.0W 998 50

[MJO812]

Cmc very close to the coast

[GaWx]

12Z Euro: best of both worlds with it well away from US and also~250 miles W of Bermuda:

[WxWatcher007]

I think a direct U.S. impact is increasingly unlikely, but not fully closed. Worth a closer in Bermuda and Atlantic Canada imo.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

12Z Euro: best of both worlds with it well away from US and also~250 miles W of Bermuda:

Pretty much a perfect track for maximum wave impacts. The storm will be far enough offshore to not directly effect local weather (busy beaches) but close enough that swell decay is negated. Next week will be an interesting one at the beach.

[GaWx]

 I counted 6 of 30 (20%) 12Z GEFS members hitting the Conus. I’m not worried about it and am pretty optimistic the U.S. will not be hit, especially considering the climo related to the current 17.4N latitude so far E in the MDR. But though still small, 20% is the highest since at least 6Z of yesterday fwiw. Likely will go back down later runs today.

[Alfoman]

While I do not anticipate the storm getting to the US coastline, how close she can get is dependent on a few different variables around timing, strength, and steering.

Most of the ensemble spreads that favor a more west outcome keep the storm weaker for a longer period of time during the next 4-5 days. If Erin struggles to intensify, she could drift closer to the islands as the lifting effects of the EC trough won't be felt as much as it would with a deeper storm. How deep that trough dips as it exits the US also could impact the strength of the steering currents underneath. CMC for example keeps Erin weak and at a lower lat accordingly, so you don't see that NNE track component really kick in until Hispanola.  

[GaWx]

The 12Z JMA hits Bermuda directly.

[Joe4alb]

Small shift in the GFS lol

[MJO812]

51 minutes ago, Joe4alb said:

Small shift in the GFS lol

AI Euro is also close

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, Alfoman said:

While I do not anticipate the storm getting to the US coastline, how close she can get is dependent on a few different variables around timing, strength, and steering.

Most of the ensemble spreads that favor a more west outcome keep the storm weaker for a longer period of time during the next 4-5 days. If Erin struggles to intensify, she could drift closer to the islands as the lifting effects of the EC trough won't be felt as much as it would with a deeper storm. How deep that trough dips as it exits the US also could impact the strength of the steering currents underneath. CMC for example keeps Erin weak and at a lower lat accordingly, so you don't see that NNE track component really kick in until Hispanola.  

The 18z GFS has it at 950 mb clearly took steps westward.  That is a bit concerning being that the model error at this lead is at least 300-400 miles any given direction.  We are in watch mode if this trends a bit further west over the next three days or so. 

[GaWx]

18Z GFS ensemble at 240: still heavily favors safe recurve from Conus though with some threatening Bermuda and Canada; but 6 of 30 (20%) are far to very far SW outliers, which is similar to the 12Z:

[WxWatcher007]

10 minutes ago, GaWx said:

18Z GFS ensemble at 240: still heavily favors safe recurve from Conus though with some threatening Bermuda and Canada; but 6 of 30 (20%) are far to very far SW outliers, which is similar to the 12Z:

I was a little surprised by that given the op but clearly some other members put Atlantic Canada in play (for this run)

[Diggiebot]

37 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I was a little surprised by that given the op but clearly some other members put Atlantic Canada in play (for this run)

Cool another Atlantic Canada cane?!?!? Fish this out passed Bermuda and let’s just move on to September tropical 

[SnoSki14]

It would be very difficult to get this to the US coast given where it's at now. In fact it would be pretty historic. 

[Kevin Reilly]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It would be very difficult to get this to the US coast given where it's at now. In fact it would be pretty historic. 

 

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

It would be very difficult to get this to the US coast given where it's at now. In fact it would be pretty historic. 

Well we did do historic last year with Beryl very far south and a Category 5 on July 1st so who knows. 

[MJO812]

More flatter

[WxWatcher007]

54 minutes ago, Diggiebot said:

Cool another Atlantic Canada cane?!?!? Fish this out passed Bermuda and let’s just move on to September tropical 

Just pointing out the potential. Atlantic Canada has been on an exceptional run of hits from recurving TCs. 

53 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

It would be very difficult to get this to the US coast given where it's at now. In fact it would be pretty historic. 

I'm not sure historic is the word, but it would be very hard to do given where we are now.

Keep in mind that the general trend today has been a further south track in the short term, and we don't know what that means long term given the uncertainty on how amplified the Atlantic ridge is and the depth of whatever troughing comes out of the eastern US/Canada. 

[TheDreamTraveler]

4 hours ago, Joe4alb said:

Small shift in the GFS lol

lmao I was not expecting the GFS to shift that far west in a single run. Glad to know it still has no idea what it's doing

[Diggiebot]

48 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Just pointing out the potential. Atlantic Canada has been on an exceptional run of hits from recurving TCs. 

I'm not sure historic is the word, but it would be very hard to do given where we are now.

Keep in mind that the general trend today has been a further south track in the short term, and we don't know what that means long term given the uncertainty on how amplified the Atlantic ridge is and the depth of whatever troughing comes out of the eastern US/Canada. 

Same run as New England from 38 to Donna in 60 I guess so why would it stop? 

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Keep in mind that the general trend today has been a further south track in the short term, and we don't know what that means long term given the uncertainty on how amplified the Atlantic ridge is and the depth of whatever troughing comes out of the eastern US/Canada. 

 The good news in the short-term for the US is that Erin climbed slightly from 17.4N to 17.6N since the previous advisory or at 275 degrees vs a prog to stay at 17.4N/270 degrees. Maybe this is a sign that the latitude will be mainly maintained instead of losing much. We’ll see.

 Edit: But the NHC is still progging the low point of 17.1N on Wednesday morning. That will be one key benchmark to compare the actual track to.

[WxWatcher007]

 

Pretty well organized despite the marginal SSTs