August Medium/ Long Range

[mitchnick]

34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If it’s still hot and humid with no end in sight by the time I get back from the beach in 10 days, I am going to be insufferably whiny. 

You can avoid that by being insufferably whiny all the time like me. Beats the unpredictability of sudden mood changes. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Why is it when cpc says we’ll be wet it’s wrong but when it says we’ll be dry it’s right?

[stormy]

This is a classic, sometimes encountered.

A grudge match between HP to our north and moisture to our south wanting to come north.

The models and the prof mets. at the NWS, TWC, ACCU. are totally confused. But, confusion is the best way to go.

This will all wash out in the next 72 hours.

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, stormy said:

This is a classic, sometimes encountered.

A grudge match between HP to our north and moisture to our south wanting to come north.

The models and the prof mets. at the NWS, TWC, ACCU. are totally confused. But, confusion is the best way to go.

This will all wash out in the next 72 hours.

You think the moisture will win?

[CAPE]

The upcoming warm/hot and humid period may be relatively short lived as the h5 longwave pattern reshuffles and the mean ridge placement is out west just beyond mid month on the latest ens means.

[frd]

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The upcoming warm/hot and humid period may be relatively short lived as the h5 longwave pattern reshuffles and the mean ridge placement is out west just beyond mid month on the latest ens means.

That look would be enjoyable. Also, would keep Atlantic hurricanes away. 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Come to papa

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Come to papa

Normal/below normal temps from the 20th to the end of the run. That puts us a few days from Sept. I'm sure we will get our typical second summer heat, but if August plays out like this given the nice period we just experienced, hard to complain.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS.  No rain next 7 days.  

[CAPE]

45 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS.  No rain next 7 days.  

You are posting a rainfall map for a single op run over a 7 day period from a global model when the chance for rain is in the form of scattered convection. You think it has it nailed?

Btw some in the region do get rain per that particular run, not that it means much. Do better.

[Weather Will]

40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You are posting a rainfall map for a single op run over a 7 day period from a global model when the chance for rain is in the form of scattered convection. You think it has it nailed?

Btw some in the region do get rain per that particular run, not that it means much. Do better.

WB 18Z GEFS and EPS keep beneficial rains for most to our south through Day 6.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z NBM, can't make this stuff up at Day 7.  Back to the dust bowl.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS and EPS keep beneficial rains for most to our south through Day 6.

Better. Yes it looks like a generally dry period for our area, but there is some uncertainty. Any rain we do see will most likely come in the form of convection and it will be scattered. Haves and have nots.

[Jebman]

7 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Come to papa

Hope you get it along with lots beneficial rain while staying real safe.

[CAPE]

Still lookin good for some nice 'coolish' weather just beyond mid month with h5 ridge out west.

[Weather Will]

Dry weather continues on the latest WB EURO weeklies for the foreseeable future.

[frd]

The cool weather potential might have been reduced a bit, but still better next week than this week. 

The core of the heat settles in the West.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Update on summertime temperatures:

Both Virginia and West Virginia saw their second hottest June-July period on record. Virginia had a gridded mean of 76.6F, second only to 2010's mean of 77.0F. At West Virginia, the two-month mean finished at 73.8F, second only to 1934. Incredibly since 1952, only one June-July came within 1F of that value (and only barely). The mean in 2010 was 72.9F, or 0.9F cooler than this year.

August has started MUCH colder. My best estimate for the current mean is 71.5F in Virginia and 70.7F in West Virginia. Very rare for the two states to have such similar mean temperatures. West Virginia is usually decidedly colder on average. The Virginia value if it were to hold would match 1986 for 13th coldest August on record. West Virginia's implied mean is already in the warmer half of all Augusts.

If these values were to hold, Virginia's summer mean would finish at 74.9F (13th hottest), while West Virginia's summer mean would finish at 72.8F (tied for 4th hottest). We can safely rule out a record hot summer for Virginia; however, a top 10 hottest summer is still very much possible. Currently, there is a 3-way tie for 10th place between 1952, 2002 & 2005. August would probably need to finish around 72.1F or higher for a top 10 summer.

Now, the mean of 72.8F for West Virginia falls just 0.2F shy of the current record hot summer (1900 & 2010, both at 73.0F). To tie those years, we would need to see August finish around 71.3F. To break them, around 71.6F. To put that into perspective, 71.3F is the 1991-2020 mean, so West Virginia would only need to have a normal August (based on most recent climatology) to tie the record.

[TheClimateChanger]

9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Update on summertime temperatures:

Both Virginia and West Virginia saw their second hottest June-July period on record. Virginia had a gridded mean of 76.6F, second only to 2010's mean of 77.0F. At West Virginia, the two-month mean finished at 73.8F, second only to 1934. Incredibly since 1952, only one June-July came within 1F of that value (and only barely). The mean in 2010 was 72.9F, or 0.9F cooler than this year.

August has started MUCH colder. My best estimate for the current mean is 71.5F in Virginia and 70.7F in West Virginia. Very rare for the two states to have such similar mean temperatures. West Virginia is usually decidedly colder on average. The Virginia value if it were to hold would match 1986 for 13th coldest August on record. West Virginia's implied mean is already in the warmer half of all Augusts.

If these values were to hold, Virginia's summer mean would finish at 74.9F (13th hottest), while West Virginia's summer mean would finish at 72.8F (tied for 4th hottest). We can safely rule out a record hot summer for Virginia; however, a top 10 hottest summer is still very much possible. Currently, there is a 3-way tie for 10th place between 1952, 2002 & 2005. August would probably need to finish around 72.1F or higher for a top 10 summer.

Now, the mean of 72.8F for West Virginia falls just 0.2F shy of the current record hot summer (1900 & 2010, both at 73.0F). To tie those years, we would need to see August finish around 71.3F. To break them, around 71.6F.

Looking at @frd's 6-10 day outlook, which shows most of the Mountaineer State 2 to 5F above recent climatological normals (with the exception of a small portion of the Eastern panhandle), I think the temperatures should be sufficiently high to push the West Virginia statewide mean high enough to at least tie, if not break, the record for hottest summer. That gets us to August 24 - the question then becomes whether that can hold for the final week. This is a record that was first set 125 years ago (albeit tied in 2010)! Stay tuned!