August Medium/ Long Range

[mitchnick]

34 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

If it’s still hot and humid with no end in sight by the time I get back from the beach in 10 days, I am going to be insufferably whiny. 

You can avoid that by being insufferably whiny all the time like me. Beats the unpredictability of sudden mood changes. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Why is it when cpc says we’ll be wet it’s wrong but when it says we’ll be dry it’s right?

[stormy]

This is a classic, sometimes encountered.

A grudge match between HP to our north and moisture to our south wanting to come north.

The models and the prof mets. at the NWS, TWC, ACCU. are totally confused. But, confusion is the best way to go.

This will all wash out in the next 72 hours.

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, stormy said:

This is a classic, sometimes encountered.

A grudge match between HP to our north and moisture to our south wanting to come north.

The models and the prof mets. at the NWS, TWC, ACCU. are totally confused. But, confusion is the best way to go.

This will all wash out in the next 72 hours.

You think the moisture will win?

[CAPE]

The upcoming warm/hot and humid period may be relatively short lived as the h5 longwave pattern reshuffles and the mean ridge placement is out west just beyond mid month on the latest ens means.

[frd]

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

The upcoming warm/hot and humid period may be relatively short lived as the h5 longwave pattern reshuffles and the mean ridge placement is out west just beyond mid month on the latest ens means.

That look would be enjoyable. Also, would keep Atlantic hurricanes away. 

 

 

[WxUSAF]

Come to papa

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Come to papa

Normal/below normal temps from the 20th to the end of the run. That puts us a few days from Sept. I'm sure we will get our typical second summer heat, but if August plays out like this given the nice period we just experienced, hard to complain.

[Weather Will]

WB 18Z GFS.  No rain next 7 days.  

[CAPE]

45 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GFS.  No rain next 7 days.  

You are posting a rainfall map for a single op run over a 7 day period from a global model when the chance for rain is in the form of scattered convection. You think it has it nailed?

Btw some in the region do get rain per that particular run, not that it means much. Do better.

[Weather Will]

40 minutes ago, CAPE said:

You are posting a rainfall map for a single op run over a 7 day period from a global model when the chance for rain is in the form of scattered convection. You think it has it nailed?

Btw some in the region do get rain per that particular run, not that it means much. Do better.

WB 18Z GEFS and EPS keep beneficial rains for most to our south through Day 6.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z NBM, can't make this stuff up at Day 7.  Back to the dust bowl.

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z GEFS and EPS keep beneficial rains for most to our south through Day 6.

Better. Yes it looks like a generally dry period for our area, but there is some uncertainty. Any rain we do see will most likely come in the form of convection and it will be scattered. Haves and have nots.

[Jebman]

7 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

Come to papa

Hope you get it along with lots beneficial rain while staying real safe.