August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[winterwx21]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

that worked out well last year

Yeah it definitely wasn't one of those winters with lots of days in the 50s. Average to slightly below average temps and frequent light snowfalls with a good amount of snowcover days. At least it felt and seemed like winter even though we missed the big snowstorms. 

[bluewave]

15 hours ago, jm1220 said:

I don’t see why we can’t reach 100 for many of us if we get another stretch of WNW downslope heat. Especially since like you said we’re not getting much rain over the next 5-7 days. Topsoil dries out very quick this time of the year as we can see with the browning lawns. 

The story of this summer and much of  the last decade has been the models underestimating the WAR or SE Ridge beyond 5 days. So this has been a repeating model forecast error.

Around August 1st the forecast for August 11-18 had a modest warm up into the 90s. Definately a rebound from the less warm pattern this week.

But now much of the guidance brings back 100° potential again. So you can see this big shift in the models in just 5 days of runs.

New run August 11-18

Old run 

 

[anthonymm]

11 hours ago, Sundog said:

A rare win (and it barely qualified) in an otherwise dud of a year

 

Can we get just ONE non dud winter? Like a february 2021 repeat?

[SACRUS]

 

 

74 /68 mostly cloudy wtih some hazy smoke mixed in.   Clouds and mainly - mostly dry outside a stray shower or drizzle/light rain the next 24 hours.  Clearing tomorrow and setting the stage for a wonderful 3 day period (too bad it wasnt a 3 days holiday weekend) as it looks gorgeous for any beach , outdoor, bbq, pool etc.  Sunny, warm - 80s Fri - Sun/ upper 80s by Sunday.  Flow comes around and expanding heat by Monday which should get the areas back into a widespread 90s for and through Thu or Friday,  perhaps some strong heat Tue/Wed (95+).  Beyond there outside a day or two near / slightly below normal its an overall warm- hot / humid and turning wetter.  With tropics systems activity looking to stay persistent.

8/6 - 8/7: Clouds - smoky front
8/8 - 8/10 :   Great stretch - near normal - sunny - dry -  Amazing summer time weather
8/11 - Beyond :  Warm - Hot / Humid  turning wetter overall - Heat 8/11 - 8/14 (strong heat possible 95+ Tue 8/12 /Wed 8/13)

 

 

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:


EWR: 97 (2001)
NYC: 97 (1955)
LGA: 95 (2018)
JFK: 91 (2010)


Lows:

EWR: 57 (1934)
NYC: 56 (1869)
LGA: 57 (1994)
JFK: 57 (1994)

Historical:


1881: Smoke from Michigan forest fires created a yellow pall over the Northeast. Candles were necessary for light at noontime. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1890 - Thunderstorms left four inches of hail covering the ground in Adair County and Union County in Iowa. The hail drifted into six foot mounds, and in some places remained on the ground for twenty- six days. (The Weather Channel)

1905: Princeton, IN received 10.50 inches of rain, which established a 24-hour maximum precipitation record for the Hoosier State. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1918 - Unusually hot weather began to overspread the Atlantic Coast States, from the Carolinas to southern New England. The temp- erature soared to an all-time record high of 106 degrees at Washington D.C., and Cumberland and Keedysville hit 109 degrees to establish a state record for Maryland. Temperatures were above normal east of the Rockies that month, with readings much above normal in the Lower Missouri Valley. Omaha NE reached 110 degrees. (David Ludlum)  On this date the highest ever maximum temperature of 107 °F was recorded in Richmond, VA. (Ref. Richmond Weather Records)

 

1947: The city, Sault Ste. Marie, MI hit 98°, equaling their all-time highest temperature. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1959 - A bucket survey showed that thunderstorms dropped 16.70 inches of rain on parts of Decatur County IA. The total was accepted as Iowa's 24 hour rainfall record. (The Weather Channel)

 

1959: Hurricane Dot crossed Kauai in the Hawaiian Islands producing sustained winds of 105 mph with gusts to 125 mph. Over 6 inches of rain fell with over 9 inches on the big island of Hawaii. The sugar cane crop on Kauai sustained $2.7 million in damages.

1961: A severe thunderstorm brought 70 to 100 mph winds to Lake Texoma, OK. The winds caused extensive damage to piers and either damaged or sank more than 100 boats. One person drowned when their boat capsized during the storm. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1977: Severe thunderstorms produced nearly 20 tornadoes in Sangamon and Christian Counties in central Illinois. Many of these only affected open fields. However, one tornado did cause extensive damage near and east of Chatham. One tornado just south of Lake Springfield was unusual in that it had a clockwise rotation, in contrast to the usual counter-clockwise rotation found in tornadoes. The thunderstorms that produced these tornadoes caused a large swath of destruction from strong winds extending from southwestern Morgan County east to far southwestern Macon County. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1979: 100° at Salt Lake City, UT tied the record for the date. It was the 5th day of temperatures 100° or hotter. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1986 - Evening thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 100 mph at Winner SD damaging two hundred homes. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1987 - Afternoon thunderstorms deluged Milwaukee, WI, with 6.84 inches of rain, including more than five inches in two hours, breaking all previous rainfall records for the city. Floodwaters were four feet deep at the Milwaukee County Stadium, and floodwaters filled the basement of the main terminal at the airport. Flooding caused 5.9 million dollars damage, and claimed the life of one person. Death Valley, CA, reported a morning low of 97 degrees. A midday thunderstorm deluged Birmingham AL with nearly six inches of rain in one hour. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Severe thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Pennsylvania and New York State. A cold front crossing the northwestern U.S. produced wind gusts to 66 mph at Livingston MT. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather from northwestern Texas to the Southern Appalachians, and in the northeastern U.S. There were 136 reports of large hail or damaging winds during the day and evening. Thunderstorms in the Southern Plains Region produced tennis ball size hail northwest of Buffalo OK, and wind gusts to 100 mph at Pampa TX. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1992: A firefighter was knocked unconscious in Sarasota County, Florida struck by lightning while fighting a fire that was caused by a lightning strike. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1993: Virginia experienced its worst tornado outbreak ever as 18 tornadoes ripped through the state in 5 hours. The most devastating tornado caused severe damage in the historic part of Petersburg. The storm then moved on to Pocahontas Island and into Colonial Heights. There, the storm ripped apart a WalMart store, killing three people and injuring nearly 200. The F4 twister was the first known violent tornado in Virginia history. It killed a total of 4 people and injured 246 along its 12-mile path. Total damages were near $50 million.

 

2001: Tropical Storm Barry moved inland on the Gulf Coast near Fort Walton Beach, FL around midnight with top winds of 60 mph. The storm caused $30 million in damage. Heavy rains spread northwestward across Alabama with up to three inches reported in the Birmingham area. No precipitation fell at Billings, MT on this date, the first of an August record 22 consecutive days without even a trace of rain. Only 0.01 inches fell during the month, their record driest August. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2003: Dallas-Fort Worth, Texas: Temperatures soar to 109°F at Dallas-Fort Worth International Airport, surpassing the old record set in 1952. (Ref. WxDoctor)

2005: A camper was slightly injured when a lightning struck a nearby tree at a campground at Lake Robertson, near Collierstown in Rockbridge County, VA. (Ref. Lightning - Virginia Weather History)

[SACRUS]

 

Rain offshore, and mainly into MD/DE - may get some showers or drizzle and light rain in scattered locations otherwise a dry front for us.

[Sundog]

58 minutes ago, anthonymm said:

Can we get just ONE non dud winter? Like a february 2021 repeat?

That would be nice lol

[FPizz]

12 hours ago, Sundog said:

A rare win (and it barely qualified) in an otherwise dud of a year

 

30 days or so of snowcover out of 19.25" total is a small victory imo

[psv88]

Another day of smoke filled skies. I wonder what it will take for people to realize we have a climate problem. If smoke filled skies doesn’t do it, I am not sure what will. 

[Wannabehippie]

17 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

I've been coughing most of the day, I hope this stuff gets out of here, it's the worst I've seen since 2023.

In Detroit they're telling people to wear masks.

Lots of stuff going on, NJ just had their second quake and we have a Legionnaire's outbreak that has killed 2 people.

Maybe we should all be wearing masks.... and helmets too lol.

 

By me in NJ there is a quarry, which has blasts from time to time. So if it is during the day time I have to ask, "quarry blast, or earthquake?"