August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[psv88]

87 for the high 

[WestBabylonWeather]

These storms making it to Long Island? 

[LibertyBell]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Well June 20th through July 31st was top 3 warmest for many locations. Since that covers the typical peak heating period of the year, then by extension this will be remembered as an impressively warm summer. Especially with the record high dew points adding to the heat.

The 10-11 winter didn’t have any memorable cold and snow before Christmas and after February 2nd. But record 60” snows in spots from 12-26 to 1-27 made it one of our snowiest winters. Even though the snowy period didn’t last that long.

 

5 weeks was absolutely amazing for snowfall amounts and snowcover.  Unfortunately for summer, it's hard to find an equivalent, I guess the closest would be Summer 1980, in which the heat was concentrated in July and August.  Even that had a long period of heat (8 weeks) vs the 5-6 weeks of heat we got this summer.  I loved that late June period, but July was a bit of a disappointment here, not matching July 2010.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

These storms making it to Long Island? 

Probably just some light rain when it gets here

[LibertyBell]

59 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The upper ridge in late June was able to build into the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. This allowed the Bermuda high at the surface to expand back west through the Apps. So it created westerly flow to the coast.

This current event had the upper ridge east of New England. So the Bermuda high expanded too far north to the east of ACY allowing onshore flow. 

So we can probably say this was a hybrid summer alternating between 2010-2013 patterns and 2018-2024 patterns. 

 

Yes, I think it's a sign that we're flipping back to the 2010-2013 type summers.

Where is that upper ridge right now? Is it to our southwest?

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

People should be allowed to swim if they want. Lifeguards or not. 

Should we hire armed guards to make sure no one sneaks onto the beach after all beachgoers have been escorted off the sand when the lifeguards leave?

If the the town put up appropriate signs of dangers then after that it's up to you if you want to ignore them. 

What about if it's children or minors? Should their parents be charged if they leave them unattended and they go in the water and drown?

People can go to the beach they just aren't allowed in the water, they should be prosecuted if they disobey the warnings.  If someone has to go rescue them you put their lives in jeopardy too (the same thing with driving through flash floods by the way.)

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Dark Star said:

Lifeguards, although certified, are not "full time" employees.  They would have to have several shifts, meaning hiring even more to extend the hours.  I am surprised in NJ that they even allow paying to get onto the beaches, since any land directly affected by the daily tides is considered public property, meaning you can't prevent anybody from being on it.  I had a bayfront house on Barnegat Bay, until Sandy took it away.  While not affected by riptides, I always tried to keep an eye on my kids, being right on the water.  Signs are posted.  If you live down near the ocean beaches, you would have to keep your young children from going to the beach without guardianship.  Easier said than done.  Should people be prevented from walking near the surf in the evening?  I can't say.  When I was 18, I went into the ocean and there was an extremely strong under tow.  My friend had to escort me out of the ocean even though I was only waist deep.  Gotta respect the ocean...

The problem is the same with people who drive through flash flooding, if someone has to go out there to rescue them their lives are put at risk too.  So at a minimum if someone disobeys signs, they can be fined and even charged as criminals.

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I went outside last night at 1am and watched for an hour. As expected, it was nothing like last year's show due to the bright moon. The moon was in the part of the sky in which I saw the most meteors last year. It really ruined the show .... I only saw a few faint looking ones.

I'm looking forward to the Geminid meteor shower in december. The moon won't be an issue so that should be by far the best meteor shower of the year. Hopefully we'll have clear skies for it. I don't care about being out there in colder weather as long as it's a nice show. 

I really hate the moon it seems to interfere every year with this shower.

Maybe one day we'll figure out a way to shut off its light (an artificial eclipse maybe?)

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

I went outside last night at 1am and watched for an hour. As expected, it was nothing like last year's show due to the bright moon. The moon was in the part of the sky in which I saw the most meteors last year. It really ruined the show .... I only saw a few faint looking ones.

I'm looking forward to the Geminid meteor shower in december. The moon won't be an issue so that should be by far the best meteor shower of the year. Hopefully we'll have clear skies for it. I don't care about being out there in colder weather as long as it's a nice show. 

You actually don't even have to go outside if it's a really good shower.  I've been able to spot lots of meteors right from my windows, I just keep all my lights shut off.

 

[jm1220]

26 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

These storms making it to Long Island? 

We both know the answer. 

[FPizz]

Severe thunderstorm warning here.

[donsutherland1]

Parts of the region again saw temperatures reach 90° or above. Bridgeport, LaGuardia Airport, Newark, and White Plains all reached or exceeded 90°. Through August 13, Bridgeport has had 15 highs of 90° or above while Central Park has 13 such days. Bridgeport has never had a calendar year with more 90° highs than Central Park.

The most anomalous heat remained in northern New England and parts of eastern Canada. Caribou reached 90° for an all-time record-tying fourth consecutive day with a daily record high of 94°. Its four-day average high temperature of 93.3° broke the old record of 92.8° from June 17-20, 2020. Goose Bay, NL had a provisional high of 97°, which set an August monthly record.

Showers and thundershowers are likely into tomorrow. Some areas could see heavy downpours.

Tomorrow through Friday will still be warm days. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 80s across the region. Saturday will likely be somewhat cooler before it turns briefly warmer on Sunday. Noticeably cooler air will likely overspread the region early next week. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +4.43 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.563 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.8° (0.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

[steve392]

Hitting a wall just at the passaic/Bergen line.  Severe going to stay south.  Dry slot expanding too. 

[Stormlover74]

Parts of Somerset and hunterdon warned now. Might clip me here or miss to my south

[MorristownWx]

so close and yet so far lol

[MorristownWx]

15 minutes ago, steve392 said:

Hitting a wall just at the passaic/Bergen line.  Severe going to stay south.  Dry slot expanding too. 

You’ll get some rain to cool things down, all that’s needed 

[etudiant]

2 minutes ago, MorristownWx said:

You’ll get some rain to cool things down, all that’s needed 

Watched Accuweather swing from an UWS Manhattan forecast of 1" to 0.08" back to 0.1" in less than an hour.

Meranwhile, things remain very dry. 

Not confidence inspiring.

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Parts of the region again saw temperatures reach 90° or above. Bridgeport, LaGuardia Airport, Newark, and White Plains all reached or exceeded 90°. Through August 13, Bridgeport has had 15 highs of 90° or above while Central Park has 13 such days. Bridgeport has never had a calendar year with more 90° highs than Central Park.

The most anomalous heat remained in northern New England and parts of eastern Canada. Caribou reached 90° for an all-time record-tying fourth consecutive day with a daily record high of 94°. Its four-day average high temperature of 93.3° broke the old record of 92.8° from June 17-20, 2020. Goose Bay, NL had a provisional high of 97°, which set an August monthly record.

Showers and thundershowers are likely into tomorrow. Some areas could see heavy downpours.

Tomorrow through Friday will still be warm days. Temperatures will likely top out in the middle and upper 80s across the region. Saturday will likely be somewhat cooler before it turns briefly warmer on Sunday. Noticeably cooler air will likely overspread the region early next week. 

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.3°C for the week centered around August 6. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.50°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.15°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue into early autumn.

The SOI was +4.43 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -0.563 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal August (1991-2020 normal). August will likely finish with a mean temperature near 75.8° (0.3° below normal). 

Supplemental Information: The projected mean would be 0.6° above the 1981-2010 normal monthly value.

 

How does Bridgeport which is much cooler than Long Island get a 90 degree day today, they are located right on the Long Island Sound and on a peninsula surrounded by water on three sides.  JFK is usually much hotter than Bridgeport, Don.

 

[FPizz]

Sky looks sick as this storm approaches.  Getting some good gusts

[LibertyBell]

35 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We both know the answer. 

The thunder won't even make it here lol

[steve392]

How, how does it always blow up in the same spots and never falls apart through this same area?  Asking to learn. 

 

[donsutherland1]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

How does Bridgeport which is much cooler than Long Island get a 90 degree day today, they are located right on the Long Island Sound and on a peninsula surrounded by water on three sides.  JFK is usually much hotter than Bridgeport, Don.

 

New Haven reached at least 89.

[Stormlover74]

5 hours ago, winterwx21 said:

Almost no rain the last few weeks. We went from flooding to an extremely dry ground here. I'm having to water the vegetable garden almost every day. As Stormlover said, today's activity will be hit or miss. I'm really hoping we get a heavy downpour today, but I'm heading down to Seaside Heights so I won't be here to see it if it happens. 

Our area should at least manage a decent downpour. Seems to be strengthening just to your west

Your area probably took the brunt of it

[uofmiami]

88.5 in Muttontown & 88.3 in Syosset for the high.

[Stormlover74]

Pretty decent gusts now. 40+

[Stormlover74]

Nice storm. Heavy rain lots of thunder and decent winds but nothing crazy

Getting quite a few cloud to ground strikes now

[winterwarlock]

Fell apart as it approached my area..just light shower..lol

[Dark Star]

Decent lightning and wind driven downpour in Garwood NJ, central Union County...

[happyclam13]

4 hours ago, SI Mailman said:

I won’t get a chance to wash my car today, so expect the storms to miss Staten Island

 

[steve392]

Drizzle to barely light rain.  Nothing more.  Like mother nature doing a lil foreplay, just enough to get us wet. :/ lol