August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Really erratic rainfall pattern during the 2020s so far. Most of the months are either well above or well below on the rainfall. Not much balance. 
 

Monthly Total Precipitation for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025	0.61	2.60	5.52	3.25	6.58	2.46	4.03	0.06	M	M	M	M	25.11
2024	5.28	2.05	9.06	3.47	4.11	1.71	4.20	7.02	1.58	0.01	3.35	4.53	46.37
2023	4.38	1.28	3.32	7.70	1.28	1.62	5.34	6.56	14.25	3.90	2.95	6.71	59.29
2022	4.29	3.23	2.39	4.53	4.52	2.92	4.55	1.71	4.10	5.08	3.15	5.83	46.30
2021	2.31	5.13	3.41	2.69	4.36	2.62	11.09	10.32	10.03	5.26	1.12	1.39	59.73
2020	1.93	2.54	3.78	4.49	1.65	1.76	6.58	5.03	3.94	5.05	3.99	4.61	45.35

that 0.01 last October is so fake, we had 0 rainfall that entire month and for the first half of November lol

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, Wannabehippie said:

off topic but the anniversary of the death of Jerry Garcia is today.

 

RIP

[Sundog]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that 0.01 last October is so fake, we had 0 rainfall that entire month and for the first half of November lol

 

I agree. 10 drops fell

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

all these rainy Julys and Augusts are why we haven't seen a 10 day heatwave in over 20 years

 

The warm spots in NJ had 2 separate 10 day heatwaves back in July and August of 2022.  But you need to be west of the sea breeze front in NJ to open up multiple 10 day runs in the same season.

The last 20 day heatwave in NJ was back in 1988. So 10 day heatwaves aren’t that big of a deal for the warm areas.

But it’s very difficult east of the Hudson due to the enhanced sea breeze circulations in recent years. Plus the tree growth shading the NYC ASOS prevents 10 day heatwaves there. 
 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	14	1995-07-24 through 1995-08-06
2	12	1953-08-25 through 1953-09-05
3	11	1999-07-24 through 1999-08-03
4	10	2022-08-03 through 2022-08-12
-	10	2022-07-17 through 2022-07-26

[donsutherland1]

45 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

It would be interesting to see how much 2011 skews that if removed.

2011 had it largest impacts on the August and September trends (1970-2024).

[Sundog]

The air is different today. Humidity up, heat is higher. Already 80 here with a dewpoint creeping up now just into the 60s.

We have entered our crappier weather period. 

[donsutherland1]

Central Park finished the August 1-10 with 9 low temperatures below 70°. The last time that happened was August 2017. The August 1-10, 2025 average low of 65.2° was the lowest August 1-10 average since 1992 when the mean low was 64.4°.

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

that 0.01 last October is so fake, we had 0 rainfall that entire month and for the first half of November lol

 

Several spots only got a T to .01. But it goes to show how quickly we can get to record heat when we get dry in the much warmer climate.

SMQ made it to 87° last October 22nd. That was the latest 87° in the year that SMQ was that warm.

If that flash drought started over the summer and lasted into October, then 90° would have been possible. 

Data for October 22, 2024 through October 22, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	87
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	85
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	85
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	85
SUSSEX AIRPORT	WBAN	85
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	85

[forkyfork]

the worst week of the summer is behind us

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Several spots only got a T to .01. But it goes to show how quickly we can get to record heat when we get dry in the much warmer climate.

SMQ made it to 87° last October 22nd. That was the latest 87° in the year that I was able to find for NJ.

If that flash drought started over the summer and lasted into October, then 90° would have been possible. 

Data for October 22, 2024 through October 22, 2024
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

SOMERSET AIRPORT	WBAN	87
INDIAN MILLS 2 W	COOP	85
NEW BRUNSWICK 3 SE	COOP	85
SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT	WBAN	85
SUSSEX AIRPORT	WBAN	85
New Brunswick Area	ThreadEx	85

Was it 1995 when the Pope was in NYC (Pope John Paul II) at that time when NYC recorded 86 at or after October 20th? I dimly remember it, it was very humid and a bunch of people fainted trying to see the Pope.

It happened because of a Gulf TC that went to our west up around Pittsburgh, I think.  Opal?

 

 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

the worst week of the summer is behind us

clear blue skies, nothing bad about that

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Central Park finished the August 1-10 with 9 low temperatures below 70°. The last time that happened was August 2017. The August 1-10, 2025 average low of 65.2° was the lowest August 1-10 average since 1992 when the mean low was 64.4°.

Pinatubo induced Summer 1992 was such an outlier.

I remember rainy days in the 40s that summer in the Poconos.

[LibertyBell]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The warm spots in NJ had 2 separate 10 day heatwaves back in July and August of 2022.  But you need to be west of the sea breeze front in NJ to open up multiple 10 day runs in the same season.

The last 20 day heatwave in NJ was back in 1988. So 10 day heatwaves aren’t that big of a deal for the warm areas.

But it’s very difficult east of the Hudson due to the enhanced sea breeze circulations in recent years. Plus the tree growth shading the NYC ASOS prevents 10 day heatwaves there. 
 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	14	1995-07-24 through 1995-08-06
2	12	1953-08-25 through 1953-09-05
3	11	1999-07-24 through 1999-08-03
4	10	2022-08-03 through 2022-08-12
-	10	2022-07-17 through 2022-07-26

Yes the heatwaves are not strong enough to make it into our area.

I expect 10 day heatwaves are much more common in NJ because their summers are usually at least 5 degrees hotter than ours.

 

[LibertyBell]

39 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I agree. 10 drops fell

it's disappointing, it reminds me of that perfect game pitched by that Tigers pitcher with the umpire making a bad call on the *should have been* last play of the game.

 

[SACRUS]

38 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The warm spots in NJ had 2 separate 10 day heatwaves back in July and August of 2022.  But you need to be west of the sea breeze front in NJ to open up multiple 10 day runs in the same season.

The last 20 day heatwave in NJ was back in 1988. So 10 day heatwaves aren’t that big of a deal for the warm areas.

But it’s very difficult east of the Hudson due to the enhanced sea breeze circulations in recent years. Plus the tree growth shading the NYC ASOS prevents 10 day heatwaves there. 
 

Number of Consecutive Days Max Temperature >= 90 
for HIGHTSTOWN 2 W, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	14	1995-07-24 through 1995-08-06
2	12	1953-08-25 through 1953-09-05
3	11	1999-07-24 through 1999-08-03
4	10	2022-08-03 through 2022-08-12
-	10	2022-07-17 through 2022-07-26

Jun 27 - Jul 8  2012 was close at 11 days the other days around there were 89.

[uofmiami]

21 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The air is different today. Humidity up, heat is higher. Already 80 here with a dewpoint creeping up now just into the 60s.

We have entered our crappier weather period. 

Doesn’t feel bad outside yet. DP still in the 50s.  Probably had the last morning low in the 50s for a while though, 58 in Syosset and 59 in Muttontown.

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Was it 1995 when the Pope was in NYC (Pope John Paul II) at that time when NYC recorded 86 at or after October 20th? I dimly remember it, it was very humid and a bunch of people fainted trying to see the Pope.

It happened because of Gulf TC that went to our west, I think.  Opal?

 

 

That was 10-22-79 when there weren’t trees over the NYC ASOS. The warm spots in NYC made it to 90°. One spot in NJ made it to 88°. So that 87° at SMQ last year was the warmest so late for that station. But just behind Plainfield for the state record.
 

Data for October 22, 1979 through October 22, 1979
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	NEW YORK LAUREL HILL	COOP	90
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	88
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	88
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	87
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	87
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	86
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	86
CT	DANBURY	COOP	86
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	86

[gravitylover]

Sitting out at the flea market in New Milford CT and yeah, humidity is a thing. The smoke seems to be back too  Not like it was but it's definitely noticeable.

[SACRUS]

 

80 / 60 here.   Sunny as s far as the eyes can see.

[bluewave]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes the heatwaves are not strong enough to make it into our area.

I expect 10 day heatwaves are much more common in NJ because their summers are usually at least 5 degrees hotter than ours.

 

Much easier for JFK to go 10 days with minimums staying at or above 70°.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	29	1980-07-16 through 1980-08-13
2	24	2013-07-01 through 2013-07-24
-	24	1995-07-13 through 1995-08-05
3	21	2010-07-05 through 2010-07-25
-	21	1988-07-28 through 1988-08-17
4	20	2023-07-03 through 2023-07-22
5	19	2020-07-18 through 2020-08-05
6	18	1999-07-17 through 1999-08-03
7	17	1984-08-01 through 1984-08-17
8	16	2025-07-06 through 2025-07-21
-	16	2003-08-01 through 2003-08-16
9	15	1979-07-23 through 1979-08-06
10	14	2024-07-05 through 2024-07-18
-	14	2022-07-13 through 2022-07-26
-	14	2016-08-08 through 2016-08-21
-	14	2005-08-02 through 2005-08-15
-	14	1972-07-14 through 1972-07-27
-	14	1969-07-28 through 1969-08-10
11	13	2012-06-29 through 2012-07-11
-	13	1983-07-28 through 1983-08-09
-	13	1978-08-06 through 1978-08-18
12	12	2019-07-27 through 2019-08-07
-	12	2016-07-21 through 2016-08-01
-	12	2015-07-25 through 2015-08-05
-	12	1993-07-04 through 1993-07-15
-	12	1955-07-16 through 1955-07-27
-	12	1952-07-13 through 1952-07-24
-	12	1949-07-12 through 1949-07-23
13	11	2021-08-17 through 2021-08-27
-	11	2020-07-05 through 2020-07-15
-	11	2009-08-16 through 2009-08-26
-	11	1994-07-25 through 1994-08-04
-	11	1973-08-27 through 1973-09-06
-	11	1970-07-24 through 1970-08-03
-	11	1959-08-12 through 1959-08-22
-	11	1955-08-13 through 1955-08-23
-	11	1953-08-27 through 1953-09-06
14	10	2022-08-03 through 2022-08-12
-	10	2011-07-17 through 2011-07-26
-	10	2007-07-26 through 2007-08-04
-	10	2006-07-26 through 2006-08-04
-	10	2005-07-14 through 2005-07-23
-	10	1993-08-25 through 1993-09-03
-	10	1991-07-17 through 1991-07-26
-	10	1987-07-19 through 1987-07-28
-	10	1983-07-12 through 1983-07-21
-	10	1971-09-03 through 1971-09-12
-	10	1959-08-27 through 1959-09-05
-	10	1949-08-03 through 1949-08-12

 

[FPizz]

19 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Doesn’t feel bad outside yet. DP still in the 50s.  Probably had the last morning low in the 50s for a while though, 58 in Syosset and 59 in Muttontown.

55 here this morning

[binbisso]

It looks like the ridge sets up out west post day 10 and continues thru the end of the month. The up coming heat could be the last of the season. 

[winterwx21]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

All the models agree on the warm spots starting the heatwave today through Wednesday. Then we get a front coming through on Thursday.

But the GFS is the only model with much rainfall so it gets cooler for a few days before the 90s return by next Monday.

The Euro and CMC don’t have much rainfall so the Euro brings the heat back faster. The Euro doesn’t dip much below 90° later this  week at the NJ warm spots before the heat reloads again by next Sunday or Monday. 

The issue continues to be lack of rainfall. If we don’t see much rain later this week, then there is nothing stopping the heat from returning again in a week. 

If we can score some rainfall and cooler temperatures this Thursday and Friday, then we’ll get two separate heatwaves rather than a continuous one at the usual NJ warm spots. 

But as long as we continue to stay dry, the ridges keep reloading and we keep getting the heat. 

I see GFS now keeps the heat for Thursday on the 12z run. If we get any rain out of the way Wednesday night like this GFS run shows, the heat wave will continue on Thursday which the Euro has been showing. 

[bluewave]

48 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

I see GFS now keeps the heat for Thursday on the 12z run. If we get any rain out of the way Wednesday night like this GFS run shows, the heat wave will continue on Thursday which the Euro has been showing. 

I guess the one piece of good news is that the original idea of the heat not rivaling the June and July widespread 100°+ temperatures will turn out to be correct this week.

Since the models keep a very strong onshore flow influence. So maybe there could be a few local highs near 100° away from the sea breeze in NJ. But not the 103°-105° max heat of June and the 101°-103° max heat back in July. 

So at least we are making some progress in the right direction. But if we keep missing rainfall opportunities, then more 90°+ heat will be possible from time to time through September and maybe even into October. 

The big question is if the usual warm spots like Newark can get their first 100° after August 15th since 1993. That has been a tough record to beat. But it could only be a matter of time if one of these flash soil moisture type droughts overperforms.

 

 

 

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Much easier for JFK to go 10 days with minimums staying at or above 70°.

 

Number of Consecutive Days Min Temperature >= 70 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	29	1980-07-16 through 1980-08-13
2	24	2013-07-01 through 2013-07-24
-	24	1995-07-13 through 1995-08-05
3	21	2010-07-05 through 2010-07-25
-	21	1988-07-28 through 1988-08-17
4	20	2023-07-03 through 2023-07-22
5	19	2020-07-18 through 2020-08-05
6	18	1999-07-17 through 1999-08-03
7	17	1984-08-01 through 1984-08-17
8	16	2025-07-06 through 2025-07-21
-	16	2003-08-01 through 2003-08-16
9	15	1979-07-23 through 1979-08-06
10	14	2024-07-05 through 2024-07-18
-	14	2022-07-13 through 2022-07-26
-	14	2016-08-08 through 2016-08-21
-	14	2005-08-02 through 2005-08-15
-	14	1972-07-14 through 1972-07-27
-	14	1969-07-28 through 1969-08-10
11	13	2012-06-29 through 2012-07-11
-	13	1983-07-28 through 1983-08-09
-	13	1978-08-06 through 1978-08-18
12	12	2019-07-27 through 2019-08-07
-	12	2016-07-21 through 2016-08-01
-	12	2015-07-25 through 2015-08-05
-	12	1993-07-04 through 1993-07-15
-	12	1955-07-16 through 1955-07-27
-	12	1952-07-13 through 1952-07-24
-	12	1949-07-12 through 1949-07-23
13	11	2021-08-17 through 2021-08-27
-	11	2020-07-05 through 2020-07-15
-	11	2009-08-16 through 2009-08-26
-	11	1994-07-25 through 1994-08-04
-	11	1973-08-27 through 1973-09-06
-	11	1970-07-24 through 1970-08-03
-	11	1959-08-12 through 1959-08-22
-	11	1955-08-13 through 1955-08-23
-	11	1953-08-27 through 1953-09-06
14	10	2022-08-03 through 2022-08-12
-	10	2011-07-17 through 2011-07-26
-	10	2007-07-26 through 2007-08-04
-	10	2006-07-26 through 2006-08-04
-	10	2005-07-14 through 2005-07-23
-	10	1993-08-25 through 1993-09-03
-	10	1991-07-17 through 1991-07-26
-	10	1987-07-19 through 1987-07-28
-	10	1983-07-12 through 1983-07-21
-	10	1971-09-03 through 1971-09-12
-	10	1959-08-27 through 1959-09-05
-	10	1949-08-03 through 1949-08-12

 

the boring miserable kind of weather lol

Some of those summers like 1949 and 1983 were really hot though....

Wow nice to see 1980 at the top of the list, that summer was much hotter than people think it was.

2010 and 1999 right up there too, so some of the summers in that list were very hot.

Whats the JFK record for most days above 90 degrees and above 95 degrees, Chris??

 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I guess the one piece of good news is that the original idea of the heat not rivaling the June and July widespread 100°+ temperatures will turn out to be correct this week.

Since the models keep a very strong onshore flow influence. So maybe there could be a few local highs near 100° away from the sea breeze in NJ. But not the 103°-105° max heat of June and the 101°-103° max heat back in July. 

So at least we are making some progress in the right direction. But if we keep missing rainfall opportunities, then more 90°+ heat will be possible from time to time through September and maybe even into October. 

The big question is if the usual warm spots like Newark can get their first 100° after August 15th since 1993. That has been a tough record to beat. Nut it could only be a matter of time if one of these flash soil moisture type droughts overperforms.

 

 

 

 

But it's much more fun with 100 degrees.  95 degrees is just meh regular heat.

We haven't hit 100 in August since 2001 in NYC and after August 15th not since 1983.

Newark shouldn't count they're basically an oven and have an even hotter climate than Philly does.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, gravitylover said:

Sitting out at the flea market in New Milford CT and yeah, humidity is a thing. The smoke seems to be back too  Not like it was but it's definitely noticeable.

Yes it looked a little orange this morning!!

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That was 10-22-79 when there weren’t trees over the NYC ASOS. The warm spots in NYC made it to 90°. One spot in NJ made it to 88°. So that 87° at SMQ last year was the warmest so late for that station. But just behind Plainfield for the state record.
 

Data for October 22, 1979 through October 22, 1979
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	NEW YORK LAUREL HILL	COOP	90
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	88
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	88
NJ	CRANFORD	COOP	87
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	87
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	86
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	86
CT	DANBURY	COOP	86
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	86

wow and our climate was much colder in the late 70s.

aside from that historically extreme heatwave in July 1977 and April 1976 of course.

[Picard]

It has a full on dry season vibe to it out there, and it doesn't look to change anytime within the next several days.
Awesome weather, as long as you can find some shade.

[SACRUS]

88 / 57 sunny and gorgeous out