August 2025 Discussion-OBS - cooler than normal first week but a big comeback to warmer than normal for the last 2-3 weeks

[jm1220]

Down to 54 here-feels like fall. Unfortunately short lived. 

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Down to 54 here-feels like fall. Unfortunately short lived. 

Officially the coolest start to August since 2013 which was a nice break from the wall to wall heat since late June. Hoping the 0z Euro has a clue about the more onshore flow and the 100° heat misses to the north in Maine. But the GFS still has more westerly flow and gets the warm spots to 101° on Wednesday. We are one of the parts of the country where a small shift to more southerly flow can make the difference between 90s and low 100s.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ August 1-7 Average Temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-08-07	74.5	1
2024-08-07	81.7	0
2023-08-07	75.6	0
2022-08-07	83.1	0
2021-08-07	75.6	0
2020-08-07	78.7	0
2019-08-07	77.9	0
2018-08-07	82.2	0
2017-08-07	74.9	0
2016-08-07	75.8	0
2015-08-07	79.1	0
2014-08-07	75.9	0
2013-08-07	73.2	0
2012-08-07	80.4	0
2011-08-07	80.6	0
2010-08-07	79.9	0

[Brian5671]

57 here right now-feels great!   Nice to see the big heat backing off too for next week (still hot though but 90 is better than 98)

[jm1220]

15 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Officially the coolest start to August since 2013 which was a nice break from the wall to wall heat since late June. Hoping the 0z Euro has a clue about the more onshore flow and the 100° heat misses to the north in Maine. But the GFS still has more westerly flow and gets the warm spots to 101° on Wednesday. We are one of the parts of the country where a small shift to more southerly flow can make the difference between 90s and low 100s.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ August 1-7 Average Temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-08-07	74.5	1
2024-08-07	81.7	0
2023-08-07	75.6	0
2022-08-07	83.1	0
2021-08-07	75.6	0
2020-08-07	78.7	0
2019-08-07	77.9	0
2018-08-07	82.2	0
2017-08-07	74.9	0
2016-08-07	75.8	0
2015-08-07	79.1	0
2014-08-07	75.9	0
2013-08-07	73.2	0
2012-08-07	80.4	0
2011-08-07	80.6	0
2010-08-07	79.9	0

Might feel a little better with the westerly flow outcome honestly. I’d rather it 100/65 vs the 92/77 we have with the southerly flow. That way we maybe notch another 100 and the disgusting humidity is kept away. These 75-80 dews we get now are hideous. 

[lee59]

57.3 my low temperature.

[SACRUS]

 

68 / 61 sunny.  Gorgeous stretch of weather in mid stream.   80s Fri - Sun, Sunday may get to 90 in the hottest spots.   Heat Mon - Fri, hottest days Tue/Wed (95+) in the hottest areas  850 MB >17C (20c seems north now - kind expected).  Storms / showers Wed Night.  A touch cooler but still hot towards the end of next week.   Overall warm - hot / humid and wetter beyond there towards the 16th with tropcial activity along the EC.

 

8/8 - 8/10 :  Warm - dry - near normal.  90 in hot spots by Sunday
8/11 - 8/15 ; Hot ,  Heat peak 95+ in the hottest spots Tue/Wed.   Storms possiblt Wed night
8/16 - Beyond :  Warm - Hot / Humid - wetter overall 0 Tropical activity.

 

[SACRUS]

 

 

Ridge centered north by 7-10 - Still warm-hot / Humid overall with an onshore flow.  Tropical activity seems steered towards the EC or into the GOM.

 

[SACRUS]

 

Next shot at meaningful rain, and at that point it'll be since Jul 31st / 2 weeks, will come Wed evening / Thursday .  

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (2001)
NYC: 99 (2001)
LGA: 98 (2001)
JFK: 99 (2001)


Lows:

EWR: 56 (1989)
NYC: 54 (1903)
LGA: 59 (1989)
JFK: 58 (1989)

 

Historical:

 

1874: Swarms of Rocky Mountain locust invaded Denver, Colorado. Millions were seen cruising through the air. The insects were picked up by a thunderstorm gust front and carried into the city. The grasshoppers ravaged crops in surrounding counties for the last month.

1878 - The temperature at Denver, CO, soars to an all-time record high of 105 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1881 - A cloudburst and flash flood occurred at Central Springs, CO, and Idaho Springs, CO. (David Ludlum)

1882 - An August snowstorm was reported by a ship on Lake Michigan. A thick cloud reportedly burst on the decks covering them with snow and slush six inches deep. Snow showers were observed at shore points that day. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1924: Hancock, Minnesota: A lightning bolt during a dry thunderstorm kills 47 cattle at a local farm. The livestock had crowded together under the branches of a large spreading willow tree when the bolt struck the tree. Bodily contact seems to have provided the means of conveying the charge among the animals. (Ref. WxDoctor)

1928: A hurricane moved in from the Bahamas and made landfall near Stuart, FL. Damage was heaviest from south Brevard to St. Lucie Counties. Houses were unroofed and citrus trees and large oaks uprooted. Coastal highways were flooded and many bridges were undermined. Two people died. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1939: A tornado outbreak across central and southern Lower Michigan resulted in two deaths and about 100 injuries. A violent tornado moved across the southeast part of Kalamazoo, MI destroying dozens of homes and killing two people. More homes were destroyed and six people were injured in northern Kent County, northeast of Cedar Springs. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1967: Las Vegas, NV was hit by two storms which bore in from the south and covered a 50-square-mile area. Damage was estimated in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. The Showboat Hotel on Boulder Highway was forced to close its casino, restaurant, and showroom when muddy floodwaters invaded through the kitchen doors, passed clearly through the large building and out the front doors. At Caesars Palace on the Strip, a casino boss said the water was deep enough in the front of the hotel to "swim in". Over 10 inches of rain fell during a two week period to cause the Great Fairbanks Flood in Alaska. $100 million dollars in damage resulted. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1969: Severe thunderstorms moved north central South Dakota to the southeast sections of the state. Golf ball size hail was reported just west of Mobridge while Wessington Springs had tennis ball sized hail. Two people were injured in Sioux Falls when strong thunderstorm winds blew in a plate glass window at a drug store. Near Mitchell a barn was devastated so badly by a tornado it appeared as if it had exploded. Portions of the building could not be found and the same tornado carried a steel granary a half mile. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972: An unusual mid-summer tornado struck near the town of Byers, Texas, in Clay County. Damage was limited to barns and storage sheds on several farms east of Byers. The tornado exhibited an unusual movement, from southeast to northwest. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1980: Dangerous Hurricane Allen briefly weakened to a Category 4 storm as it skirted the Yucatan Peninsula. Already a Category 5 twice during its life cycle, Allen would briefly regain Category 5 intensity for a record third time on the 9th as it headed for the Texas coast. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1983 - The temperature at Big Horn Basin, WY, reached 115 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorm rains in eastern Nebraska sent the Wahoo River and Ithica River above flood stage. Thunderstorm rains in western Iowa sent the Nishnabotna River over flood stage. Up to seven inches of rain deluged the Council Bluffs area Friday evening and Saturday morning. Thunderstorms produced 4.4 inches of rain in three hours Friday evening, along with golf ball size hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from central Kansas to southern Wisconsin late in the day. Thunderstorms in Iowa produced hail three inches in diameter at Vinton, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Donohue and near Mount Pleasant. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A total of ninety-nine cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Alpena MI with a reading of 40 degrees. Mount Mitchell NC was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 35 degrees. Early evening thunderstorms around Las Vegas NV produced wind gusts to 116 mph. The high winds damaged or destroyed about eighty- two aircraft at Henderson Sky Harbor Airport and McCarran International Airport, causing fourteen million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1996: Unusually cool temperatures were recorded over parts of the northern Plains and Rockies. The temperature dropped to 36° at Saratoga and Shirley Basin, WY while Laramie and Rawlins, WY bottomed out at 39°. Record lows included: Pocatello, ID: 40°, Casper, WY: 44° and Valentine, NE: 46°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2001: Slow moving thunderstorms dumped 5 inches of rain in a two hour period over the area between Telluride and Placerville, CO. The torrential rains unleashed mudslides that covered Highway 145 with up to six feet of rock and mud. The road is the only route in and out of Telluride and it was closed for several hours. Several vehicles were swept from the road, some all the way to a river bed below the highway. Nine people had to be rescued. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: Unseasonably cool air settled from parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. Record lows included: Asheville, NC: 49°, Augusta, GA: 52°, Roanoke, VA: 53°, Lynchburg, VA: 53°, Grand Junction, CO: 54°, Charlotte, NC: 55°, Greensboro, NC: 55°, (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

2007: A tornado bounces across Staten Island and Brooklyn, New York, ripping off roofs and damaging dozens of buildings. The EF-2 twister hop-scotched through Brooklyn's Bay Ridge and Sunset Park neighborhoods around 6:30 am.

[WE GOT HIM]

2 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Down to 54 here-feels like fall. Unfortunately short lived. 

I love that early morning chill

[Sundog]

I briefly fell to 59 degrees this morning. Nice

[uofmiami]

54 in Muttontown & 55 in Syosset this morning.

[BxEngine]

80 and sunny somewhere just north of the bahamas in the atlantic….

[bluewave]

Parts of the region are running 56 to 1 for top ten warmest to coldest months since 2010.

 

 

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, uofmiami said:

54 in Muttontown & 55 in Syosset this morning.

Nice, 55 here as well.  

[WE GOT HIM]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Nice, 55 here as well.  

61 here sigh

[SnoSki14]

Models showing a lot of LR tropical activity. Not good with all that ridging that'll be in place. 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Models showing a lot of LR tropical activity. Not good with all that ridging that'll be in place. 

Yeah MJO moving into 8-1-2 so should see a burst of storms.  

[LibertyBell]

On 8/6/2025 at 6:38 PM, Wannabehippie said:

I like the modular nuclear plants that are being developed right now. Much lower costs that conventional nuclear power plants. Plus we have people working on nuclear fusion. It might not be cold fusion, but magnetic bottles, and "hot" fusion are in our grasp.

Yes lots of innovations in the near future, I find it frustrating that we took so many steps backwards during and after the 80s we have a lot of ground to make up

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, Sundog said:

I briefly fell to 59 degrees this morning. Nice

This is ideal weather.

Sorry I have to disagree with you about the smoke, smoke is air pollution and shortens life expectancy, I would take this weather over smoke.  I would even take heat over smoke, because you can use an air conditioner to stop the heat, there's nothing you can do to stop smoke unless you wear a mask.  Which is what they have been recommending in the Midwest.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (2001)
NYC: 99 (2001)
LGA: 98 (2001)
JFK: 99 (2001)


Lows:

EWR: 56 (1989)
NYC: 54 (1903)
LGA: 59 (1989)
JFK: 58 (1989)

 

Historical:

 

1874: Swarms of Rocky Mountain locust invaded Denver, Colorado. Millions were seen cruising through the air. The insects were picked up by a thunderstorm gust front and carried into the city. The grasshoppers ravaged crops in surrounding counties for the last month.

1878 - The temperature at Denver, CO, soars to an all-time record high of 105 degrees. (The Weather Channel)

1881 - A cloudburst and flash flood occurred at Central Springs, CO, and Idaho Springs, CO. (David Ludlum)

1882 - An August snowstorm was reported by a ship on Lake Michigan. A thick cloud reportedly burst on the decks covering them with snow and slush six inches deep. Snow showers were observed at shore points that day. (David Ludlum) (The Weather Channel)

1924: Hancock, Minnesota: A lightning bolt during a dry thunderstorm kills 47 cattle at a local farm. The livestock had crowded together under the branches of a large spreading willow tree when the bolt struck the tree. Bodily contact seems to have provided the means of conveying the charge among the animals. (Ref. WxDoctor)

1928: A hurricane moved in from the Bahamas and made landfall near Stuart, FL. Damage was heaviest from south Brevard to St. Lucie Counties. Houses were unroofed and citrus trees and large oaks uprooted. Coastal highways were flooded and many bridges were undermined. Two people died. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1939: A tornado outbreak across central and southern Lower Michigan resulted in two deaths and about 100 injuries. A violent tornado moved across the southeast part of Kalamazoo, MI destroying dozens of homes and killing two people. More homes were destroyed and six people were injured in northern Kent County, northeast of Cedar Springs. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1967: Las Vegas, NV was hit by two storms which bore in from the south and covered a 50-square-mile area. Damage was estimated in the hundreds of thousands of dollars. The Showboat Hotel on Boulder Highway was forced to close its casino, restaurant, and showroom when muddy floodwaters invaded through the kitchen doors, passed clearly through the large building and out the front doors. At Caesars Palace on the Strip, a casino boss said the water was deep enough in the front of the hotel to "swim in". Over 10 inches of rain fell during a two week period to cause the Great Fairbanks Flood in Alaska. $100 million dollars in damage resulted. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History)

1969: Severe thunderstorms moved north central South Dakota to the southeast sections of the state. Golf ball size hail was reported just west of Mobridge while Wessington Springs had tennis ball sized hail. Two people were injured in Sioux Falls when strong thunderstorm winds blew in a plate glass window at a drug store. Near Mitchell a barn was devastated so badly by a tornado it appeared as if it had exploded. Portions of the building could not be found and the same tornado carried a steel granary a half mile. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1972: An unusual mid-summer tornado struck near the town of Byers, Texas, in Clay County. Damage was limited to barns and storage sheds on several farms east of Byers. The tornado exhibited an unusual movement, from southeast to northwest. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1980: Dangerous Hurricane Allen briefly weakened to a Category 4 storm as it skirted the Yucatan Peninsula. Already a Category 5 twice during its life cycle, Allen would briefly regain Category 5 intensity for a record third time on the 9th as it headed for the Texas coast. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

1983 - The temperature at Big Horn Basin, WY, reached 115 degrees to establish a state record. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorm rains in eastern Nebraska sent the Wahoo River and Ithica River above flood stage. Thunderstorm rains in western Iowa sent the Nishnabotna River over flood stage. Up to seven inches of rain deluged the Council Bluffs area Friday evening and Saturday morning. Thunderstorms produced 4.4 inches of rain in three hours Friday evening, along with golf ball size hail. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Thunderstorms developing along a slow moving cold front produced severe weather from central Kansas to southern Wisconsin late in the day. Thunderstorms in Iowa produced hail three inches in diameter at Vinton, and produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Donohue and near Mount Pleasant. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1989 - A total of ninety-nine cities in the central and eastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Alpena MI with a reading of 40 degrees. Mount Mitchell NC was the cold spot in the nation with a morning low of 35 degrees. Early evening thunderstorms around Las Vegas NV produced wind gusts to 116 mph. The high winds damaged or destroyed about eighty- two aircraft at Henderson Sky Harbor Airport and McCarran International Airport, causing fourteen million dollars damage. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

 

1996: Unusually cool temperatures were recorded over parts of the northern Plains and Rockies. The temperature dropped to 36° at Saratoga and Shirley Basin, WY while Laramie and Rawlins, WY bottomed out at 39°. Record lows included: Pocatello, ID: 40°, Casper, WY: 44° and Valentine, NE: 46°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2001: Slow moving thunderstorms dumped 5 inches of rain in a two hour period over the area between Telluride and Placerville, CO. The torrential rains unleashed mudslides that covered Highway 145 with up to six feet of rock and mud. The road is the only route in and out of Telluride and it was closed for several hours. Several vehicles were swept from the road, some all the way to a river bed below the highway. Nine people had to be rescued. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

2004: Unseasonably cool air settled from parts of the Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast. Record lows included: Asheville, NC: 49°, Augusta, GA: 52°, Roanoke, VA: 53°, Lynchburg, VA: 53°, Grand Junction, CO: 54°, Charlotte, NC: 55°, Greensboro, NC: 55°, (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

2007: A tornado bounces across Staten Island and Brooklyn, New York, ripping off roofs and damaging dozens of buildings. The EF-2 twister hop-scotched through Brooklyn's Bay Ridge and Sunset Park neighborhoods around 6:30 am.

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (2001)
NYC: 99 (2001)
LGA: 98 (2001)
JFK: 99 (2001)

 

wow we came this close to hitting 100 on multiple days in August 2001

 

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Might feel a little better with the westerly flow outcome honestly. I’d rather it 100/65 vs the 92/77 we have with the southerly flow. That way we maybe notch another 100 and the disgusting humidity is kept away. These 75-80 dews we get now are hideous. 

Yes exactly and on top of that the air pollution is gone, that was the best outcome of the entire week.

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Officially the coolest start to August since 2013 which was a nice break from the wall to wall heat since late June. Hoping the 0z Euro has a clue about the more onshore flow and the 100° heat misses to the north in Maine. But the GFS still has more westerly flow and gets the warm spots to 101° on Wednesday. We are one of the parts of the country where a small shift to more southerly flow can make the difference between 90s and low 100s.

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ August 1-7 Average Temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

2025-08-07	74.5	1
2024-08-07	81.7	0
2023-08-07	75.6	0
2022-08-07	83.1	0
2021-08-07	75.6	0
2020-08-07	78.7	0
2019-08-07	77.9	0
2018-08-07	82.2	0
2017-08-07	74.9	0
2016-08-07	75.8	0
2015-08-07	79.1	0
2014-08-07	75.9	0
2013-08-07	73.2	0
2012-08-07	80.4	0
2011-08-07	80.6	0
2010-08-07	79.9	0

we actually want 100 degrees with westerly flow, not a disgusting southerly wind with high humidity... onshore flow is far worse and on top of that low 90s is really boring, if it's going to be hot make it historic and fun, not low 90s mediocre heat. CC has made our extreme heat less extreme and more humid, so the climate models were wrong about that for years before they *corrected*.

 

 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

we actually want 100 degrees with westerly flow, not a disgusting southerly wind with high humidity... onshore flow is far worse and on top of that low 90s is really boring, if it's going to be hot make it historic and fun, not low 90s mediocre heat.

 

 

Or how about no crazy heat like we used to get in August. Some people like spending time outdoors without feeling like they're gonna melt. 

[LibertyBell]

20 hours ago, MANDA said:

Weather has been nice but man it is boring as hell.  I'd rather watch water evaporate.  

Soon to become hot and boring.  It also looks to continue pretty dry.  Lawn is crisping and garden needs regular watering.

Missed out on any big rains here over the last several weeks.  Hopefully in the next week to 10 days we'll have something meaningful to track in the tropics.  Big ridge out there so westerly movement is favored over re-curvature OTS in the longer term.  

 

if it hits 100 it won't be boring

 

[Sundog]

5 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This is ideal weather.

Sorry I have to disagree with you about the smoke, smoke is air pollution and shortens life expectancy, I would take this weather over smoke.  I would even take heat over smoke, because you can use an air conditioner to stop the heat, there's nothing you can do to stop smoke unless you wear a mask.  Which is what they have been recommending in the Midwest.

 

The choice was between super high dewpoints and heat or dry, coolish weather and some smoke. 

Obviously I'd take today over those other two lol

[LibertyBell]

Just now, SnoSki14 said:

Or how about no crazy heat like we used to get in August. Some people like spending time outdoors without feeling like they're gonna melt. 

dry heat is easier to tolerate.... do you remember anything about the heat in August 2001, I remember it as only feeling hot for that one day.

 

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, Sundog said:

The choice was between super high dewpoints and heat or dry, coolish weather and some smoke. 

Obviously I'd take today over those other two lol

It would be nice to keep the super high dew points away permanently, I can't deal with 75+ dew points.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, bluewave said:

Maybe we can disrupt this dry heat pattern a bit after the 17th if the EPS is correct about the tropics becoming more active near the East Coast. But that is still a pretty far ways off to know if the model is correct. Plus we keep seeing the heat reload into the longer range all summer even when the models have forecast a relaxation.

But in the old days we could often count on the tropics to break these heatwaves extending into mid-August. Just not sure if this will be the case yet. But it’s worth monitoring. 
 

August 18-25 

the tropics usually get busy for us after August 20th and more likely in September-- this is how I remember 1995 and 1999

The only hot summer I remember with a tropical event in August is 1991, which came at the tale end of a really hot summer

 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Nice, is the source region Sonoran? All-time August record high of 118F today at PHX!

my favorite kind of heat, I hope it's like August 1980 / August 1983 / August 2001