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July 2025 Obs/Disco ... possible historic month for heat


Typhoon Tip
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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

meh do we live there? also not counting lows it wouldn't be close..  dews were impressive though

 

36 minutes ago, Brewbeer said:

July will be remembered more for the humidity than anything else in my book.  More days of AC required than any other July in recent memory.

Humidity is what leads to our hottest months relative to normal as a mean temperature.

Like Brewbeer said, it’s probably the most AC usage we’ll see.

If you cannot cool off at night, that almost has more societal impacts than daytime.  People expect the daytime to be hot/warm.  But if it’s 75F all night… that’s when things get real abnormal.

I don’t get the tossing of overnight summer warmth like it’s not important in this discussion.

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

Humidity is what leads to our hottest months relative to normal as a mean temperature.

Like Brewbeer said, it’s probably the most AC usage we’ll see.

If you cannot cool off at night, that almost has more societal impacts than daytime.  People expect the daytime to be hot/warm.  But if it’s 75F all night… that’s when things get real abnormal.

I don’t get the tossing of overnight summer warmth like it’s not important in this discussion.

Whatever fits ACATT  agenda

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Whatever fits ACATat agenda

 

4 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

 

Humidity is what leads to our hottest months relative to normal as a mean temperature.

Like Brewbeer said, it’s probably the most AC usage we’ll see.

If you cannot cool off at night, that almost has more societal impacts than daytime.  People expect the daytime to be hot/warm.  But if it’s 75F all night… that’s when things get real abnormal.

I don’t get the tossing of overnight summer warmth like it’s not important in this discussion.

Nighttime doesn't matter to me but then again I'm cuddled up in my room with the a/c on 62.. :lol:  if i didn't have it I would say this July was miserable but thankfully  fortunate enough to have it..

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On 7/12/2025 at 10:24 PM, ineedsnow said:

but that would include overnight temps .. its not a hot pattern.. if it wasn't for overnight lows this month might average below by the time its finished

Do you really want to give Kevin shit when you have this mid month gem?

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Just now, dendrite said:

It was top 5 in spots or close to it. 150 years of data. lol

Top 10 to 15.. he also said no lows in the 40s in SNE. Stein for today.. I could keep going but I'm at the dentist waiting to go in so don't have the time lol

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6 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Don't know where you went to school but in mine if the teacher asked what's 6 + 6 and you answered 5 you would be wrong.

We’re comparing a LR forecast to simple addition? 

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11 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

Top 10 to 15.. he also said no lows in the 40s in SNE. Stein for today.. I could keep going but I'm at the dentist waiting to go in so don't have the time lol

Tell them you’ve already had plenty of novocaine this morning 

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8 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

And every year he says hot and humid from start to finish so there's that

You just listed the last three summers for ORE… they are all like top 5-10 heaters.

I dunno, I applaud you guys for the fight.

I gave in a couple summers ago.

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On 7/29/2025 at 1:02 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

Mm  the signal performed ... it just didn't extend as far as it could have, given those indicators as they appeared at the beginning of the month.  There's multiple sources available on the web for cumulative means, but this blw is from the PRISM group/Oregon State U.  It shows through the 28th where the anomalies, relative to normal climatology, have amassed over the last 4 weeks.  This is impressive enough ... given this is a month's worth of aggregated data.  There were probably individual days per the course that were greater, as there were days lower than this mean anomaly.  It's going to be tough to put up mean anomalies that extend much above +5 in July, compared to say ...March, because July is a perennial climate ceiling in the temperature curve.  It is more constrained by broader systemic limitations at the higher side. 

 

image.png.01b488e9ffa9641a3d4155f4d0a1df53.png

I am having trouble loading NCEI's Climate at a Glance, seems to load better at the end of each day. But I think I did undersell this July a bit. Looking at the numbers, I think a lot of statewide means will come in significantly higher than shown by the urban stations. Rural and high elevation sites looked to be the most above normal, which aren't really reflected in the numbers. I didn't look at New England, but I think a Top 5 hottest July on record is on tap for New York (~4), New Jersey (~2), Pennsylvania (~4), West Virginia (~3), Virginia (~3), Maryland (~2 or 3) and other states. Ohio looked like around 11th place, but a top 10 is possible. Some of these mountainous locations were throwing up unprecedented minimum temperatures.

PRISM has this at +1.464F nationally (relative to 1991-2020), which is a very impressive tally for July. I will note, however, that NCEI has tended to come in somewhat lower with anomalies in recent years (as a general rule). So that might be a little inflated. However, if it's in the ballpark with NCEI, we are well within striking distance of a record hot summer. The current record is +1.67F for JJA set in 1936 & tied in 2021. The thing about those summers is they were driven by DRY heat. 1936 was one of the driest years on record (e.g., hottest on record at Des Moines but also lowest mean dewpoint by a long margin). 2021 was driven by extreme anomalies in the arid western U.S. This is another beast altogether... the combination of heat & humidity might just be the most extreme since records have been kept. This summer would also likely do better on a population-weighted basis. 1936 was driven by insane anomalies in places where nobody lives, especially in that era (e.g., North & South Dakota).

2025.png?487214

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