July 2025 Discussion-OBS - seasonable summer variability

[Wannabehippie]

53 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Japan and South Korea have also been exceptionally warm. 

I saw this article, listened to the 12 min podcast about ocean currents fading, due to climate change, decreases in salinity, etc. What are your thoughts on it?

https://www.npr.org/2025/07/07/1255296716/oceans-temperature-currents-climate-change

[SACRUS]

87 so far the high

 

86 / 73 now.  Humid horizon

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Is this shift in summer circulation patterns cyclical? I can't see why it would be connected to climate change in any way.  Rainfall yes, but not circulation patterns.

 

This paper below explains why the circulation pattern shift is related to the warming and it focuses more on the Pacific side. But we have been seeing similar shifts in the Atlantic leading to more ridging east of New England. It results the repeating weather patterns we have been experiencing over the last decade. Don just posted this in the La Niña thread in the main forum. I added this link below. 

https://scienmag.com/north-pacific-climate-shifts-drive-southwest-us-drought/

 

 

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

This paper below explains why the circulation pattern shift is related to the warming and it focuses more on the Pacific side. But we have been seeing similar shifts in the Atlantic leading to more ridging east of New England. It results the repeating weather patterns we have been experiencing over the last decade. Don just posted this in the La Niña thread in the main forum. I added this link below. 

https://scienmag.com/north-pacific-climate-shifts-drive-southwest-us-drought/

 

 

This would then also mean much more snow changing to rain or outright rain storms in the winter because of onshore flow.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

so much wild stuff in this list

 

1993: The Great Midwest Flood continued as flood waters came close the Des Moines, IA water treatment plant, leaving the city's 250,000 residents without water for 12 days. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)
 

 

was this great flood and our record heat both caused by the same thing in 1993?

 

1980: Hot weather prevailed from the southeast to the Plains. Daily records included: Wichita, KS: 111°, Columbia, MO: 108°, Dodge City, KS: 108°, Topeka, KS: 107°, DFW Airport, TX: 107°, Macon, GA: 104°, Savannah, GA: 103°, Memphis, TN: 103°, Houston, TX: 103°, Columbus, GA: 102°, Paducah, KY: 102°, Atlanta, GA: 101°, Chattanooga, TN: 100 °F. (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

persistent heat in 1980 continued

1912: Boston, MA recorded the end of the longest heat wave ever. It was 9 consecutive days with 90 °F or more.
(Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events)

 

1936: From July 5-17, temperatures exceeding 111 degrees in Manitoba and Ontario claimed 1,180 lives (mostly the elderly and infants) during the most prolonged, deadliest heat wave on record. Four hundred of these deaths were caused by people who drowned seeking refuge from the heat. In fact, the heat was so intense that steel rail lines and bridge girders twisted, sidewalks buckled, crops wilted and fruit baked on trees. Some record temperatures include; 112 degrees at St. Albans and Emerson, Manitoba, 111 at Brandon, Manitoba, 108 at Atikokan, Ontario, and Winnipeg, Manitoba.

1936: Unbelievable heat occurred across the Mid Atlantic states and the deadliest heat wave ever in parts of Canada. Ontario, Canada recorded its hottest temperature ever as the town of Atikokan hit 108°. On the same day in Manitoba, Winnipeg also reached 108°, the highest recorded temperature there since records began in the 1870's. St. Albans set Manitoba’s all-time record as they soared to 112°. In the United States, the all-time record high was set at Rochester, MN with 108°. Other daily record highs were set at Lincoln, NE: 109°; Peoria, IL: 108°; Rockford, IL: 108°, Grand Forks, ND: 108°, Decatur, IL: 107°, Moline, IL: 107°, Dubuque, IA: 107°, Minneapolis, MN: 106°, St. Cloud, MN: 106°, Fargo, ND: 106°, Springfield, IL: 105°, Champaign, IL: 105°, (Ref. Additional Temperatures Listed On This Link)

 

wtf was going on in 1912 and 1936?  Wasn't 1912 the year Fenway Park opened and the year the Titanic sank? and look at that heat in 1936, you'd think with all that dust in the air from the Dust Bowl, the heat would actually be less.

 

Dust storms were mostly from autumn through spring. I don't think there were many dust storms during the summer. A review of the Nebraska Monthly Weather Review for July 1936 reports only once instance of dust which lasted for a couple of hours ahead of an advancing cold front on the 19th.

Looks like 1912 was an isolated stretch. 14 of the last 15 days of the month were below 80F in Boston that month, resulting in the 4th coldest stretch on record for that timeframe.

[bluewave]

17 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This would then also mean much more snow changing to rain or outright rain storms in the winter because of onshore flow.

 

The ridge to the east of New England during the summers has been giving us more onshore flow. But it’s located further to the west during  the winter. So we get more SW to W flow then with all the Great Lakes cutters.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The ridge to the east of New England during the summers has been giving us more onshore flow. But it’s located further to the west during  the winter. So we get more SW to W flow then with all the Great Lakes cutters.

whats causing all the stalled fronts and cloudy weather in July which we did not have in the 90s especially?

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Dust storms were mostly from autumn through spring. I don't think there were many dust storms during the summer. A review of the Nebraska Monthly Weather Review for July 1936 reports only once instance of dust which lasted for a couple of hours ahead of an advancing cold front on the 19th.

Looks like 1912 was an isolated stretch. 14 of the last 15 days of the month were below 80F in Boston that month, resulting in the 4th coldest stretch on record for that timeframe.

I wonder if NYC had a similar hot stretch to Boston in 1912.

[LibertyBell]

19 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Dust storms were mostly from autumn through spring. I don't think there were many dust storms during the summer. A review of the Nebraska Monthly Weather Review for July 1936 reports only once instance of dust which lasted for a couple of hours ahead of an advancing cold front on the 19th.

Looks like 1912 was an isolated stretch. 14 of the last 15 days of the month were below 80F in Boston that month, resulting in the 4th coldest stretch on record for that timeframe.

7-9-1912 when Boston hit 99, NYC might have hit 100 on that day.

7-9 is a popular day for extreme heat, I think that was the last day of a 3 day 100+ stretch at NYC in 1993, when we hit 102 degrees.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

7-9-1912 when Boston hit 99, NYC might have hit 100 on that day.

7-9 is a popular day for extreme heat, I think that was the last day of a 3 day 100+ stretch at NYC in 1993, when we hit 102 degrees.

 

Looks like Central Park topped out at 97F. Much cooler than Boston with only 5 days in the 90s that month.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

Looks like Central Park topped out at 97F. Much cooler than Boston with only 5 days in the 90s that month.

Weird, Boston had 10 90 degree days in July 1912, it must have been over the top heat.

 

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, Wannabehippie said:

I saw this article, listened to the 12 min podcast about ocean currents fading, due to climate change, decreases in salinity, etc. What are your thoughts on it?

https://www.npr.org/2025/07/07/1255296716/oceans-temperature-currents-climate-change

IMO, it does a good job providing an overview of one of the major consequences of humanity's collective choice to continue to dump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. I believe that Matt Luongo, one of the climate scientists on the interview, said it correctly when he stated that it is "a political and social decision on how much we want to not emit CO2." I believe a combination of motivated reasoning, cognitive psychological biases, limited leadership capacity, and structural realities of complex societies (built on a status quo foundation, poor capacity to make rapid changes due to the complex relationships involved, etc.) have shaped humanity's collective decision. 

There is some debate over whether the AMOC will completely break down or merely slow. In one recent surprise, scientists found that the SMOC (southern meridional overturning circulation off Antarctica has actually reversed. That outcome could lead to the oceans releasing some of the CO2 that they have absorbed. Moreover, because the ocean and atmosphere is coupled, the changes related to ocean currents have synoptic implications. The rapid warming of the Western Pacific Ocean's negative PDO-type circulation that is enhancing drought in the Southwest is one example. 

 

[SACRUS]

6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Weird, Boston had 10 90 degree days in July 1912, it must have been over the top heat.

 

 

Quick 2 week hot period the rest of the summer was cooler even for Boston standards

 

July 1912 Boston Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
July 1	71	56	0.00	0.0
July 2	85	61	0.00	0.0
July 3	92	65	0.00	0.0
July 4	94	67	0.00	0.0
July 5	91	68	0.00	0.0
July 6	90	68	0.00	0.0
July 7	93	70	0.00	0.0
July 8	94	72	0.00	0.0
July 9	99	78	0.00	0.0
July 10	97	76	0.02	0.0
July 11	90	70	1.14	0.0
July 12	72	64	0.00	0.0
July 13	81	63	0.00	0.0
July 14	81	68	0.00	0.0
July 15	85	71	0.00	0.0
July 16	92	69	0.00	0.0
July 17	70	64	0.00	0.0
July 18	70	63	2.52	0.0
July 19	79	62	0.00	0.0
July 20	79	57	0.00	0.0
July 21	70	61	1.03	0.0
July 22	79	62	0.00	0.0
July 23	73	57	0.00	0.0
July 24	79	57	0.00	0.0
July 25	75	58	0.00	0.0
July 26	79	62	0.00	0.0
July 27	78	63	0.00	0.0
July 28	84	58	0.00	0.0
July 29	78	67	0.45	0.0
July 30	70	61	0.00	0.0
July 31	72	61	0.00	0.0

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Quick 2 week hot period the rest of the summer was cooler even for Boston standards

 

July 1912 Boston Weather

Day	High (°F)	Low (°F)	Precip. (inches)	Snow (inches)
July 1	71	56	0.00	0.0
July 2	85	61	0.00	0.0
July 3	92	65	0.00	0.0
July 4	94	67	0.00	0.0
July 5	91	68	0.00	0.0
July 6	90	68	0.00	0.0
July 7	93	70	0.00	0.0
July 8	94	72	0.00	0.0
July 9	99	78	0.00	0.0
July 10	97	76	0.02	0.0
July 11	90	70	1.14	0.0
July 12	72	64	0.00	0.0
July 13	81	63	0.00	0.0
July 14	81	68	0.00	0.0
July 15	85	71	0.00	0.0
July 16	92	69	0.00	0.0
July 17	70	64	0.00	0.0
July 18	70	63	2.52	0.0
July 19	79	62	0.00	0.0
July 20	79	57	0.00	0.0
July 21	70	61	1.03	0.0
July 22	79	62	0.00	0.0
July 23	73	57	0.00	0.0
July 24	79	57	0.00	0.0
July 25	75	58	0.00	0.0
July 26	79	62	0.00	0.0
July 27	78	63	0.00	0.0
July 28	84	58	0.00	0.0
July 29	78	67	0.45	0.0
July 30	70	61	0.00	0.0
July 31	72	61	0.00	0.0

wild, nothing like what NYC had in 1953

 

[SACRUS]

 

For reference BoS 90 degree leaders 

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 90 °F
1983	1	30
1955	2	28
2002	3	27
1991	3	27
2010	5	25
1988	5	25
2021	7	24
2018	8	23
2016	9	22
1994	9	22
1980	9	22
1959	9	22
1949	9	22
2022	14	21
1944	14	21
1993	16	20

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, it does a good job providing an overview of one of the major consequences of humanity's collective choice to continue to dump greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. I believe that Matt Luongo, one of the climate scientists on the interview, said it correctly when he stated that it is "a political and social decision on how much we want to not emit CO2." I believe a combination of motivated reasoning, cognitive psychological biases, limited leadership capacity, and structural realities of complex societies (built on a status quo foundation, poor capacity to make rapid changes due to the complex relationships involved, etc.) have shaped humanity's collective decision. 

There is some debate over whether the AMOC will completely break down or merely slow. In one recent surprise, scientists found that the SMOC (southern meridional overturning circulation off Antarctica has actually reversed. That outcome could lead to the oceans releasing some of the CO2 that they have absorbed. Moreover, because the ocean and atmosphere is coupled, the changes related to ocean currents have synoptic implications. The rapid warming of the Western Pacific Ocean's negative PDO-type circulation that is enhancing drought in the Southwest is one example. 

 

Our society is just too dependent on fossil fuels.  Even with lessening of emissions as fuel, there is still the matter of plastic being created from toxic petrochemicals.  The fossil fuel cartel does not want to be retired from existence, there's just too much money in it.  We will probably eventually be completely done with it, but I don't foresee that happening for the next 50 years.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

For reference BoS 90 degree leaders 

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 90 °F
1983	1	30
1955	2	28
2002	3	27
1991	3	27
2010	5	25
1988	5	25
2021	7	24
2018	8	23
2016	9	22
1994	9	22
1980	9	22
1959	9	22
1949	9	22
2022	14	21
1944	14	21
1993	16	20

very similar to JFK and NYC, 2010, 2002, 1991 and 1983 place prominently in the top 5!

 

1983	1	30
1955	2	28
2002	3	27
1991	3	27
2010	5	25

[SACRUS]

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

very similar to JFK and NYC, 2010, 2002, 1991 and 1983 place prominently in the top 5!

 

1983	1	30
1955	2	28
2002	3	27
1991	3	27
2010	5	25

 

And finally their strong heat 

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 95 °F
1949	1	14
1944	2	12
2018	3	9
1983	3	9
1955	3	9
2021	6	8
1953	6	8
1911	6	8
2022	9	7
2002	9	7
1988	9	7
1984	9	7
1963	9	7
1933	9	7
2016	15	6
2013	15	6
1993	15	6
1977	15	6

 

 

ear	Rank	Days >= 100 °F
1911	1	4
1952	2	2
1949	2	2
1944	2	2
1919	2	2
2025	6	1
2022	6	1
2021	6	1
2011	6	1
2010	6	1
2002	6	1
1995	6	1
1977	6	1
1975	6	1
1955	6	1
1953	6	1
1948	6	1
1926	6	1
1925	6	1

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, SACRUS said:

 

And finally their strong heat 

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 95 °F
1949	1	14
1944	2	12
2018	3	9
1983	3	9
1955	3	9
2021	6	8
1953	6	8
1911	6	8
2022	9	7
2002	9	7
1988	9	7
1984	9	7
1963	9	7
1933	9	7
2016	15	6
2013	15	6
1993	15	6
1977	15	6

 

 

ear	Rank	Days >= 100 °F
1911	1	4
1952	2	2
1949	2	2
1944	2	2
1919	2	2
2025	6	1
2022	6	1
2021	6	1
2011	6	1
2010	6	1
2002	6	1
1995	6	1
1977	6	1
1975	6	1
1955	6	1
1953	6	1
1948	6	1
1926	6	1
1925	6	1

Year	Rank	Days >= 95 °F
1949	1	14
1944	2	12
2018	3	9
1983	3	9
1955	3	9
2021	6	8
1953	6	8
1911	6	8
2022	9	7
2002	9	7   These years do match up with NYC well, what was going on in `1911 (the year before 1912 that we were discussing) that caused 4 100+ days in Boston in 1911?  Didn't NYC also have a very hot summer with 100+ days in 1911 too?

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

And finally their strong heat 

 

Year	Rank	Days >= 95 °F
1949	1	14
1944	2	12
2018	3	9
1983	3	9
1955	3	9
2021	6	8
1953	6	8
1911	6	8
2022	9	7
2002	9	7
1988	9	7
1984	9	7
1963	9	7
1933	9	7
2016	15	6
2013	15	6
1993	15	6
1977	15	6

 

 

ear	Rank	Days >= 100 °F
1911	1	4
1952	2	2
1949	2	2
1944	2	2
1919	2	2
2025	6	1
2022	6	1
2021	6	1
2011	6	1
2010	6	1
2002	6	1
1995	6	1
1977	6	1
1975	6	1
1955	6	1
1953	6	1
1948	6	1
1926	6	1
1925	6	1

ear	Rank	Days >= 100 °F
1911	1	4 a very hot summer, I wonder if NYC was similarly hot and had 100+ days in 1911 too?

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Our society is just too dependent on fossil fuels.  Even with lessening of emissions as fuel, there is still the matter of plastic being created from toxic petrochemicals.  The fossil fuel cartel does not want to be retired from existence, there's just too much money in it.  We will probably eventually be completely done with it, but I don't foresee that happening for the next 50 years.

 

It's a choice. It's actually no different from the choice made at Easter Island to cut down the trees leading to complete deforestation. Unfortunately, I expect that humanity will maintain its present course, so I don't see big reductions in the burning of fossil fuels anytime soon. Thus, we'll probably see 3°C of warming, and perhaps more given recent findings related to cloud feedbacks, by 2100.

[SACRUS]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

ear	Rank	Days >= 100 °F
1911	1	4 a very hot summer, I wonder if NYC was similarly hot and had 100+ days in 1911 too?

 

NYC had 2, 100 degree days in 1911, 6 at 95 or higher, and 15 at 90 or higher

[LibertyBell]

7 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's a choice. It's actually no different from the choice made at Easter Island to cut down the trees leading to complete deforestation. Unfortunately, I expect that humanity will maintain its present course, so I don't see big reductions in the burning of fossil fuels anytime soon. Thus, we'll probably see 3°C of warming, and perhaps more given recent findings related to cloud feedbacks, by 2100.

Wait, Don, who cut down the trees at Easter Island? I thought only natives live there-- it's one of the most isolated places on the entire planet.

If we are on that trajectory, we might not have Venus level greenhouse warming, but we'll likely get at least partway there.

Is having the current generation of rich people die off going to be enough to end fossil fuels? I don't see anyone who is under 40 who would want to support or even run a fossil fuel company, so maybe we will be finally done with them when everyone who is currently over the age of 40 is dead?

 

[LibertyBell]

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Wait, Don, who cut down the trees at Easter Island? I thought only natives live there-- it's one of the most isolated places on the entire planet.

If we are on that trajectory, we might not have Venus level greenhouse warming, but we'll likely get at least partway there.

Is having the current generation of rich people die off going to be enough to end fossil fuels? I don't see anyone who is under 40 who would want to support or even run a fossil fuel company, so maybe we will be finally done with them when everyone who is currently over the age of 40 is dead?

 

Nature is the final arbiter of all of the mistakes of humanity.  Those mistakes are finally erased when the people who made those mistakes are all dead....

 

[TheClimateChanger]

24 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

wild, nothing like what NYC had in 1953

 

 I wonder how much some of these extremes, even in otherwise cooler summers, were aided by extreme deforestation. I think we've added something like 50-100 million acres of forest since 1920.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

 I wonder how much some of these extremes, even in otherwise cooler summers, were aided by extreme deforestation. I think we've added something like 50-100 million acres of forest since 1920.

possibly also nuclear testing, there was a big cluster of heat between 1944 and 1955 that could be linked to testing of nuclear weapons (both fission and fusion.)

[winterwarlock]

getting quite warm and uncomfortable late in the afternoon....88/76/97

[LibertyBell]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

getting quite warm and uncomfortable late in the afternoon....88/76/97

I'm just glad the sun is finally here.

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Wait, Don, who cut down the trees at Easter Island? I thought only natives live there-- it's one of the most isolated places on the entire planet.

If we are on that trajectory, we might not have Venus level greenhouse warming, but we'll likely get at least partway there.

Is having the current generation of rich people die off going to be enough to end fossil fuels? I don't see anyone who is under 40 who would want to support or even run a fossil fuel company, so maybe we will be finally done with them when everyone who is currently over the age of 40 is dead?

 

The Polynesian civilization prior to the arrival of Europeans in the early 18th century. 

I suspect that today’s teens will be among the leading edge of a generation or generations that won’t view fossil fuels as indispensable and will see the vast planet-scale harm they have inflicted and then will move aggressively to curb their burning, even if the short-term effect is disruptive.They won’t believe the past generations who propped up the fossil fuels-centric society have the standing to object, much less complain about disruptions. After all, had they pursued a very gradual phaseout, the warming would have been limited and the societal burden on the younger generations would have been much less than that which they will inherit. 

[donsutherland1]

The first 10 days of July have been very warm across the New York City area. 

New York City-Central Park: 79.0° (27th warmest)
New York City-JFK Airport: 79.7° (8th warmest)
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 81.0° (11th warmest)
Newark: 82.2° (7th warmest)

Mean monthly temperatures for cases with July 1-10 mean temperatures at or above the 2025 figures ere as follows:

New York City-Central Park: 78.8° 
New York City-JFK Airport: 78.4° 
New York City-LaGuardia Airport: 81.1° (8th warmest)
Newark: 80.8°

Warm weather will continue through the weekend with temperatures reaching mainly the lower and middle 80s through the weekend. 

Some of the guidance suggests that another round of heat could develop early next week with temperatures returning to the upper 80s and perhaps lower 90s.

No widespread and sustained excessive heat appears likely through mid-July.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was +0.4°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was 0.0°C for the week centered around July 2. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged +0.58°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged +0.03°C. Neutral ENSO conditions will likely continue through the summer.

The SOI was +16.68 today. 

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was +0.962 today. 

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 70% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal July (1991-2020 normal). July will likely finish with a mean temperature near 79.0° (1.5° above normal).