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June 2025 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Hottest euro run yet

I thought it backed off a tick ... but, I think you're referring mostly to the 2-meter type product layouts?  

The Euro detonates a field of CBs in the mid day heat a week from Thursday, and that knocks the feet out from under the longevity of this thing.  It was supposed to be unperturbed thru Saturday and that back end/half of it's being normalized by that 00z run.   But with heights starting to ebb the model seems to be using that and the processing together as means to establish decay momentum that normalizes stuff prior to the previous idea.

But yeah, the Tues-Wed ... it's like the models trying to 'cone' the heat into a 2-day, sun comes to earth event. 

It's all noise obviously.   Until next Wednesday is D4 ...( maybe Saturday's runs...), I'm pretty heavily ensemble reliant.  The EPS continues to inch more impressive in the main 500 dm metrical heights,  in terms of layout and vertical dimensions. As did the GEFs, now actually having caught up and being complementary - for still D6 and beyond, that in itself is worth the mention.  The GEPs is attempting to down play - either that or it is just not caught up yet.  Not sure which... I don't tend to rely on the GEPs for summer stuff.

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I thought it backed off a tick ... but, I think you're referring mostly to the 2-meter type product layouts?  

The Euro detonates a field of CBs in the mid day heat a week from Thursday, and that knocks the feet out from under the longevity of this thing.  It was supposed to be unperturbed thru Saturday and that back end/half of it's being normalized by that 00z run.   But with heights starting to ebb the model seems to be using that and the processing together as means to establish decay momentum that normalizes stuff prior to the previous idea.

But yeah, the Tues-Wed ... it's like the models trying to 'cone' the heat into a 2-day, sun comes to earth event. 

It's all noise obviously.   Until next Wednesday is D4 ...( maybe Saturday's runs...), I'm pretty heavily ensemble reliant.  The EPS continues to inch more impressive in the main 500 dm metrical heights,  in terms of layout and vertical dimensions. As did the GEFs, now actually having caught up and being complementary - for still D6 and beyond, that in itself is worth the mention.  The GEPs is attempting to down play - either that or it is just not caught up yet.  Not sure which... I don't tend to rely on the GEPs for summer stuff.

It was mixing out a little more in the afternoons, but yeah…mid level temps were a hair cooler. I just thought it was more impressive in duration  

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I feel like it's a Tuesday and Wednesday deal for the real hot stuff. Thursday may introduce a seabreeze and relegate the big heat inland. But by then heights fall and the tprchy 850s are gone...albeit still very warm. We are in a warm pattern coming up.

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3 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Those that didn't install are going to be in deep, deep trouble. Time is running out folks. Once this heat/humidity comes it isn't going away for quite some time. You've been warned

Except that it takes 5 minutes to install a window unit, close the doors, and turn it on...    So oh my god, t-minus whatever days:hrs:seconds to the crushing reality of 5 minutes of effort I guess ... lol

 

 

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like it's a Tuesday and Wednesday deal for the real hot stuff. Thursday may introduce a seabreeze and relegate the big heat inland. But by then heights fall and the tprchy 850s are gone...albeit still very warm. We are in a warm pattern coming up.

Too bad no vort coming through :cry: 

image.thumb.png.ce7e54a70773192f0283f165eb7bb66c.png

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15 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Wait, where is the third lawn? 
Did you get a new pit? 

With a goal to get down to the Cape and me moving into a state of retirement/semi-retirement, we decided to sell Westborough and rent in Providence (where my wife works) for a year.

The house in Westborough just went on the market, so I need to keep up with that lawn until it goes under contract.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like it's a Tuesday and Wednesday deal for the real hot stuff. Thursday may introduce a seabreeze and relegate the big heat inland. But by then heights fall and the tprchy 850s are gone...albeit still very warm. We are in a warm pattern coming up.

yeah, I was just going over the more detailed mass distribution and timing and it's really those two days

'at this time'  ... I mean, the ensembles of the EPS and GEFs would allow the operational runs to to 'fill those days in'  *thu-sat.   They were sort of more like that yesterday.

It's not believable one way or the other at this range... but these latest runs are cooling the 850s by a couple clicks each day after that.  It's not abundantly clear how that is doing that, but both the Euro and GFS did that.   It's almost like they're fabricating/introducing emergent little erosion factors.

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s literally gonna rain just about all day . A day ago models had nothing 

mm... not sure you looked hard enough for the rain ? 

 the GFS/Euro runs from 12z yesterday, for early/mid day today ( 18z) and they clearly had a field of QPF in the region -  I guess you can argue the degree of inundation but if one is being objectively open minded about weak flow/summer/and green on charts, they might paint picture in their mind that includes the possibility of it not being sunny and 84  lol

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Tomorrow will be fine. 

Steamy tho.   If that's one's bag than sure.   But these NAM grid numbers are like 574 dm thickness, at the bottom of which is 23 C above the 2-meter temperature. 

36000818853 -2399 132110 74231813   
42000908660 -1900 132112 74222014 

Which means it could be in the mid or upper 80s at eyebrow, while DPs are 70 to 75 ... 

 

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