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June 2025 Obs/Disco


Torch Tiger
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43 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS has a nice NW flow look as heat dome builds east. Let’s pray for violence.

yup ... euro even manifests a nice mcs signal. 

only 180 hour out there but who's county.

this appears to be on the nose of a 576 to 582 dm SW/W heat release in that run btw

image.png.07b1e94ba72b25dad39d7e09e1c8c322.png

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18 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

Thursday and Friday look like "Toland and Tiger Torched Tropical Taint" days if you enjoy that stuff.  Highs mid to upper 80's and dewpoints may hit 70.  Then back to more average temps and dewpoints for the weekend.

Short-lived heat as we thought. They just can't win.

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18 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a HHH pattern folks.

Deal With It

- Cosgrove 

I don't think it will be as HHH as you would like it to be.  It should be moderately above normal temps, but dewpoints are not going above mid 60's at most times in the extended term. Not seeing any sustained heat wave type stuff yet.  Does look dry in terms of rainfall. 

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2 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I don't think it will be as HHH as you would like it to be.  It should be moderately above normal temps, but dewpoints are not going above mid 60's at most times. Not seeing any sustained heat wave type stuff yet.  Does look dry in terms of rainfall. 

With all due respect ... where are you seeing constraining factors on T or DP ?  

It isn't through conventional means, because from operational trends, to teleconnector/mass field correlations and back , the whole methodology has +2 ST DP and +1.5 SD T at this time, which in sensible terms is 91/73 type stuff ...roughly from D7 to 14 - but these time ranges are obviously negotiable.  

Course, we are talking still a week+ away.  If you are constraining things based on seasonal trend to bone warm pattern and verIfy a low-balled result?  okay.  LOL 

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3 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

I don't think it will be as HHH as you would like it to be.  It should be moderately above normal temps, but dewpoints are not going above mid 60's at most times. Not seeing any sustained heat wave type stuff yet.  Does look dry in terms of rainfall. 

Take those dews up. Plenty of 70+ coming starting late next week. 

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39 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Take those dews up. Plenty of 70+ coming starting late next week. 

There’s way too much taking model output and machine numbers verbatim. One look at that ridge and thicknesses from Thursday onward thru end of month shows high dews and steamy . Could be a day after a severe outbreak that dries a bit , but dews right back into 70’s after . It’s like when the charts are posted. Most know those aren’t correct and to add 5-8 degrees on at least 

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1 hour ago, dendrite said:

It’s a shat day whether it’s 0.05” or 0.50”.  BTV FTW today

I’m down in Bedford for the weekend but it was raining in Stowe when we left this morning.  Not much rain on the drive, just some mist at times.

Looks about right for a Saturday.

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