June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[Brian5671]

17 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Many models yesterday had a stripe of mid 80s for 2PM today in NYC and western LI because they showed temps never really dropping below the upper 70s. Needless to say they all busted pretty badly. 

models usually underestimate the SW push of the back door fronts....

[FPizz]

Just now, Brian5671 said:

models usually underestimate the SW push of the back door fronts....

It has reached here now as I went from 82 to 75 pretty quickly

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, FPizz said:

It has reached here now as I went from 82 to 75 pretty quickly

Supposed to rebound later. We shall see

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Supposed to rebound later. We shall see

0Z Euro for 2PM:

No way this verifies

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

those droughts are why the summers of 1953 and 1966 have never been matched for 100+ heat

Our longest 20 day heatwave back in 1988 was all about the record Plains drought which extended to the East Coast.
 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1988-07-29	95	0.00
1988-07-30	99	0.00
1988-07-31	90	T
1988-08-01	91	0.00
1988-08-02	94	0.00
1988-08-03	93	0.00
1988-08-04	92	0.00
1988-08-05	90	T
1988-08-06	90	0.00
1988-08-07	93	T
1988-08-08	90	0.00
1988-08-09	92	0.00
1988-08-10	93	0.01
1988-08-11	97	0.00
1988-08-12	95	0.00
1988-08-13	98	0.00
1988-08-14	98	0.00
1988-08-15	99	0.00
1988-08-16	92	0.00
1988-08-17	90	0.05

 

[LibertyBell]

32 minutes ago, bluewave said:

If we had a drought and this was a month later, then maybe the 2010 and 2011 highs of 108° could have been challenged. Hard to say for sure. But it’s interesting that this strongest heatwave in over a decade followed the record westerly flow this past winter into spring. Even though we are seeing a quick return to easterly flow. Plus continuing the measurable rainfall on weekend pattern without it being a washout.

I guess we are lucky that we haven’t experienced any severe droughts like we had from the 1960s to around 2001. Since droughts of that magnitude with the warmer background pattern would probably support 110°+ peak heat and our first consecutive 10 days reaching 100° and perhaps a 25 day official heatwave of reaching 90°. While this heatwave only produced some scattered outages, not sure how well our power grid would hold up with such extreme drought feedback driven heat.

10 consecutive 100 degree days? do you think it's possible here?

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our longest 20 day heatwave back in 1988 was all about the record Plains drought which extended to the East Coast.
 

Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1988-07-29	95	0.00
1988-07-30	99	0.00
1988-07-31	90	T
1988-08-01	91	0.00
1988-08-02	94	0.00
1988-08-03	93	0.00
1988-08-04	92	0.00
1988-08-05	90	T
1988-08-06	90	0.00
1988-08-07	93	T
1988-08-08	90	0.00
1988-08-09	92	0.00
1988-08-10	93	0.01
1988-08-11	97	0.00
1988-08-12	95	0.00
1988-08-13	98	0.00
1988-08-14	98	0.00
1988-08-15	99	0.00
1988-08-16	92	0.00
1988-08-17	90	0.05

 

But less heat for us on the coast in 1988? 1999 was much hotter here

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, Sundog said:

0Z Euro for 2PM:

No way this verifies

agreed-most places will stay steady at whatever they are once the front passes---here we droppped to 66, it's 68 now with a stiff NE breeze

[bluewave]

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

10 consecutive 100 degree days? do you think it's possible here?

It would be possible in NJ with a 60s to 01 style drought. But our climate has become much wetter since then. So I think it would be a challenge to ever get another 20 day 90° day heatwave in NJ or double the 5 day 100° streak from 22. 

The pattern of our new climate is a bunch of shorter heatwaves. But a high total number of 90° days especially in NJ. This is why they have seen so many summers with 40+ 90° days recently. But with breaks in between and no 20 day runs.

[Sundog]

8 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

agreed-most places will stay steady at whatever they are once the front passes---here we droppped to 66, it's 68 now with a stiff NE breeze

Still 70 here, models like to overdo highs on days with backdoor coldfronts and cloudy skies. 

[LibertyBell]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would be possible in NJ with a 60s to 01 style drought. But our climate has become much wetter since then. So I think it would be a challenge to ever get another 20 day 90° day heatwave in NJ or double the 5 day 100° streak from 22. 

The pattern of our new climate is a bunch of shorter heatwaves. But a high total number  of 90° days especially in NJ. This is why they have seen so many summers with 40+ 90° days recently. But with breaks in between and no 20 day runs.

I think this week demonstrated that Long Island can be just as hot as New Jersey if the ridge is strong enough.  This intense heat was like what we had in 2011.  The heat we have had since then wasn't strong enough to overcome the ocean like this one was.

1988 the heat wasn't nearly as intense as what we had in 1993 or 1999 or 2010 or 2011 or what we just had now.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It would be possible in NJ with a 60s to 01 style drought. But our climate has become much wetter since then. So I think it would be a challenge to ever get another 20 day 90° day heatwave in NJ or double the 5 day 100° streak from 22. 

The pattern of our new climate is a bunch of shorter heatwaves. But a high total number  of 90° days especially in NJ. This is why they have seen so many summers with 40+ 90° days recently. But with breaks in between and no 20 day runs.

Maybe this will cycle back to more 40s-60s type long heatwaves? If not that, maybe a 1993 or 1999 type heatwave (which is still relatively recent), 1999 had two very long super heatwaves and the one extreme heatwave in 1993 really stands out.

 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think this week demonstrated that Long Island can be just as hot as New Jersey if the ridge is strong enough.  This intense heat was like what we had in 2011.  The heat we have had since then wasn't strong enough to overcome the ocean like this one was.

1988 the heat wasn't nearly as intense as what we had in 1993 or 1999 or 2010 or 2011 or what we just had now.

1988 was all about duration. It’s what happens with drought feedback. This wetter pattern is why we don’t get those very long extended heatwaves anymore. But we can still get shorter and more intense ones like the last few days.

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

1988 was all about duration. It’s what happens with drought feedback. This wetter pattern is why we don’t get those very long extended heatwaves anymore. But we can still get shorter and more intense ones like the last few days.

I think 1993 and 1999 were in drought patterns too weren't they Chris? We had much drier summers back then.  July 1999 was one of the hottest months I have ever experienced.  July 1993 right up there too.

[LibertyBell]

12 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Still 70 here, models like to overdo highs on days with backdoor coldfronts and cloudy skies. 

What I see on the hourlies is that the sun comes back out at 2 PM and thats when the temperature spike occurs.  As a matter of fact they have me completely clear at 5 PM.

Tomorrow looks like the really cool day and cloudy all day with a high of 72.

It's 76 here now with a forecasted high of 81 here.

Sunday looks to be partly sunny here now and no rain at all and a high of 86.

[winterwx21]

41 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Supposed to rebound later. We shall see

Hard to believe it's gonna pop back to 80 degrees this afternoon with the clouds and east winds. The temp is down to 72 here now. And tomorrow will be a struggle to make it to 70. 

[winterwx21]

1 hour ago, winterwarlock said:

Back to awful dreary cloudy cool weather

 

Who wants this crap

Seems as if a lot of people here are enjoying it. After 3 days of extreme heat, this is a refreshing change. I wouldn't want this cloudy cool weather to last for too long, but I'll take 2 days of this after that insane heat. It was too hot to go running outside the last 3 days, so I'll enjoy running out there today and tomorrow. 

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I think 1993 and 1999 were in drought patterns too weren't they Chris? We had much drier summers back then.  July 1999 was one of the hottest months I have ever experienced.  July 1993 right up there too.

Yeah, all the lawns in Long Beach during July 1999 turned brown. 1999 to 2002 was the last time that the NYC reservoirs ran low. These days flooding has become more of a concern than drought. 

[Cfa]

Currently 70, about 30 degrees lower than yesterday at this time.

Midnight high of 82 for today though.

[Stormlover74]

25 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

Hard to believe it's gonna pop back to 80 degrees this afternoon with the clouds and east winds. The temp is down to 72 here now. And tomorrow will be a struggle to make it to 70. 

I would think so too but Upton is still going low 80s and partly sunny 

Actually it just changed to cloudy and 80

[donsutherland1]

Today is just the 5th day on record that Central Park has seen the temperature fall into the 60s following a day with an 80° or above minimum temperature. There were 72 days with 80° or above lows.

 

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Today is just the 5th day on record that Central Park has seen the temperature fall into the 60s following a day with an 80° or above minimum temperature. There were 72 days with 80° or above lows.

I think going forward the only realistic way this happens is if we get these June heatwaves. With the warmer planet and warmer water it would be hard to get into the 60s in July following a major heatwave, but in June when the water isn't as warm yet it's more realistic, CAA not so much but still more likely in June rather than July. 

[bluewave]

50 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Maybe this will cycle back to more 40s-60s type long heatwaves? If not that, maybe a 1993 or 1999 type heatwave (which is still relatively recent), 1999 had two very long super heatwaves and the one extreme heatwave in 1993 really stands out.

 

Those heatwaves were all about severe droughts since it was a much cooler climate era. Just look at how many summers we had back then when even the warmest parts of NJ couldn’t make it to 20 days reaching 90° in a season. We haven’t seen a summer in NJ with under 20 days reaching 90° since 2014. These days the warm spots in NJ seldom get under 30 days even during our cooler summers. 

[Sundog]

The GEMLAM is broken. Even at 6z it showed temps of near 90 in Queens and Nassau at 2PM!

Meanwhile we're in the upper 60s to low 70s.

 

[donsutherland1]

4 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I think going forward the only realistic way this happens is if we get these June heatwaves. With the warmer planet and warmer water it would be hard to get into the 60s in July following a major heatwave, but in June when the water isn't as warm yet it's more realistic, CAA not so much but still more likely in June rather than July. 

I agree. The SSTs are hugely important. 

% of Lows in the 60s one day after an 80° or above low:

July 15 or Before: 20.0% (4 out of 20 days)
After July 15: 1.9% (1 out of 52 days)
July 20 or Later: 0.0% (0 out of 44 days)

[nycwinter]

was so windy out this morning i started to feel chilly wearing a shirt  i even sniffled a few times i hope i am not catching a cold..

[FPizz]

11 minutes ago, Sundog said:

The GEMLAM is broken. Even at 6z it showed temps of near 90 in Queens and Nassau at 2PM!

Meanwhile we're in the upper 60s to low 70s.

 

Terrible performance

[Sundog]

Just now, nycwinter said:

was so windy out this morning i started to feel chilly wearing a shirt  i even sniffled a few times i hope i am not catching a cold..

The illness you suffer from is a mental one, not a physical one lol

 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, nycwinter said:

was so windy out this morning i started to feel chilly wearing a shirt  i even sniffled a few times i hope i am not catching a cold..

one of the great myths of all time "you can catch a cold from the change in weather"  Nope you need to be exposed to a virus.

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Those heatwaves were all about severe droughts since it was a much cooler climate era. Just look at how many summers we had back then when even the warmest parts of NJ couldn’t make it to 20 days reaching 90° in a season. We haven’t seen a summer in NJ with under 20 days reaching 90° since 2014. These days the warm spots in NJ seldom get under 30 days even during our cooler summers. 

unfortunately it also means less extremely hot days so our climate is becoming compressed to higher mins and less high temperatures of 95/100 or more.  1949 must have had lower low temperatures to balance out the 8 high temperatures of 100+ at EWR and 5 high temperatures of 99+ at NYC.