June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[SACRUS]

 

75 / 67 here clouds early from the MCS that was a bit more widespread and too a more SSE track than some modeled.  Clouds this morning , rain in northern areas from storms will limit max heating to low - mid 90s.  Areas in CNJ south who avoid rain and clear out sooner may get to the upper 90s.  Clearing by noon (3-4 hours.   Hot Mon - Wed 85 MB temps >21 c, only wind flow direction and clouds, and maybe park overgrowth  will get in the way of the century mark Tue/Wed.   Thus may be dealing with lingering debris clouds but there will be a sharp change from upper 90s to low 90s to 80s near the city. 

Friday onshore flow and scattered showers.  We'll see how much we clear out and if we can get a dry weekend 28-29th. 

Beyond there overall warm - hot / humid and wetter to open with ridge and next heat building north and east towards the 3rd.

 

[Sundog]

8 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

Not seeing 100s at all

Tuesday there's a very good chance

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

What complete trash from models and nws

 

Why do we readily accept this kind of failure in forecasting within 24 hours out

Because weather modeling research takes money. Meteorology isn’t as high of a priority as other areas of spending around the world. The ECMWF is working in bringing the model down to convection allowing resolutions. But the computing power is very expensive. 

[Brian5671]

8 minutes ago, winterwarlock said:

Wtf is this crap going to be at the beaches

probably clears by noon but not seeing upper 90's today...need a high launching pad for that.

[Sundog]

Raining in Queens 

[wishcast_hater]

[mention=63]forkyfork[/mention] 12z GFS from last Monday had the right idea:

What the hell is going on up here? Rain again after finally being promised a picture perfect weekend?!! You are going to give credit to one model run a week ago and call it a win? I have said this a million times, the model suck balls. You younger guys tout technology advances all the time but the models still suck.

I left all my back yard furniture uncovered because it wasn’t supposed to rain.


.

[bluewave]

A continuation of these stuck weather patterns which have been common during the last decade or so.

 

[BxEngine]

1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said:

What the hell is going on up here? Rain again after finally being promised a picture perfect weekend?!! You are going to give credit to one model run a week ago and call it a win? I have said this a million times, the model suck balls. You younger guys tout technology advances all the time but the models still suck.

I left all my back yard furniture uncovered because it wasn’t supposed to rain.


.

Take a breath. 

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

probably clears by noon but not seeing upper 90's today...need a high launching pad for that.

You know what's funny, a bunch of models didn't have anything down here so they still show high 90s for a lot of people lol

[winterwarlock]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Because weather modeling research takes money. Meteorology isn’t as  high of a priority as other areas of spending gets around the world. The ECMWF is working in bringing the model down to convection allowing resolutions. But the computing power is very expensive.

Stop..its literally a 18 hour bust..too many excuses

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 101 (1988)
NYC: 98 (1988)
LGA: 99 (1988)
JFK: 94 (2012)


Lows:

EWR: 48 (1940)
NYC: 52 (1940)
LGA: 52 (1992)
JFK: 55 (1992)

Historical:

 

1886: At Lynchburg, a "terrific rain" led to street flooding, setting a new record for the wettest June at the site (5.44 inches Record at this time). In Washington, DC, (4.16 inches Record at this time) of rain fell on the 22nd alone, setting a 24-hour rainfall record for June. (Ref. for Heavy Rainfall)

1906: A destructive hailstorm struck the town of Chelsea, VT, covering an area 1 by 10 miles. There were drifts up to two feet deep, and most crops were destroyed. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1919: 59 people were killed as an F5 tornado ripped through the town of Fergus Falls, MN. 400 buildings were destroyed. A blank check was found over 60 miles away and lumber was carried 10 miles. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1928: A farmer near Greensburg, KS looked up into the heart of a tornado. He described its walls as "rotating clouds lit with constant flashes of lightning and a strong gassy odor with a screaming, hissing sound."

 

1944: A violent tornado, which touched down in southwest Wisconsin, crossed the border into Illinois, northeast of Freeport. Both states had at least $1 million damage each. In Illinois, 66 farms lost barns, and 21 homes were destroyed. Two people were killed in Illinois, with seven more in Wisconsin.  (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1947 - Twelve inches of rain fell in forty-two minutes at Holt, MO, establishing a world rainfall record. That record was tied on January 24-25, 1956, at the Kilauea Sugar Plantation in Hawaii, as their state record was established with 38 inches of rain in 24 hours. (The Weather Channel)

1972 - Hurricane Agnes deluged Pennsylvania and New York State with torrential rains resulting in the most costly flood in U.S. history. In the Middle Susquehanna Valley of Pennsylvania, 24 hour rainfall amounts were generally 8 to 12 inches, with up to 19 inches in extreme southwestern Schuylkill County. At Wilkes-Barre, PA, the dike was breached destroying much of the town. Flooding resulted in 117 deaths and 3.1 billion dollars damage. (David Ludlum)

1981 - A young woman from Lubbock, TX, was struck by lightning. The bolt of lightning struck just above her right shoulder near her neck, and passed right to left through her body, tearing her warm-ups, causing her tennis shoes to explode, and lifting her two feet into the air. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms in southern Texas produced wind gusts to 116 mph near Quemado. Thunderstorms in New York State produced 5.01 inches of rain in 24 hours at Buffalo, an all-time record for that location, and produced an inch of rain at Bath, PA. The temperature at Fairbanks AK soared to 92 degrees, establishing a record for the date. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Sixty-five cities in twenty-four states reported record high temperatures for the date. Tucson AZ reported an all-time record high of 114 degrees, surpassing the previous record of 112 degrees established a day earlier. Highs of 98 degrees at Pittsburgh, PA, and 100 degrees at Baltimore, MD, tied records for the month of June. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Record cold temperatures were reported in the High Plains Region. Rapid City, SD, reported a record low of 39 degrees, in sharp contrast to their record high of 102 degrees two days earlier, on the 20th. (The National Weather Summary)

 

2003: A hailstone measuring 7.0 inches in diameter with a circumference of 18.75 inches and weighing 1.33 pounds falls in Aurora, Nebraska. The National Weather Service reports this is the second largest hailstone ever documented in the U.S. by weight, and the largest by size at that time. The world's largest hailstone NOW was produced from storms in South Dakota; 8" in diameter and 1.9375 lbs. on July 23, 2010.

 

2009: Florida: Temperature records tumble with Vero Beach leading the record heat parade with a record high of 102°F and a heat index of 111°F. Elsewhere in the state, Tallahassee hits 103°F; Daytona and West Palm Beach, 96°F and Miami 98.°F.
(Ref. WxDoctor)

2016: June 22-24. Part of a severe weather outbreak that produced over two dozen tornadoes from Illinois to West Virginia, up to 10 inches of rain fell in just 12-24 hours on June 23, setting off West Virginia's third deadliest flood. Twenty-three people lost their lives.

 

 

 

[SACRUS]

6 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Tuesday there's a very good chance

Tue - Wed (NJ locations) 

[winterwarlock]

3 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

probably clears by noon but not seeing upper 90's today...need a high launching pad for that.

Going to Asbury so hopefully steers clear

[bluewave]

Just now, winterwarlock said:

Stop..its literally a 18 hour bust..too many excuses

Obviously you have never worked in research.

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said:

What the hell is going on up here? Rain again after finally being promised a picture perfect weekend?!! You are going to give credit to one model run a week ago and call it a win? I have said this a million times, the model suck balls. You younger guys tout technology advances all the time but the models still suck.

I left all my back yard furniture uncovered because it wasn’t supposed to rain.


.

I was just pointing out that for a few days early last week the GFS was insisting the rain would dive down and farther west than the other models were showing.

The other models at the time were showing the rain through Northern New England. 

The GFS does suck because it eventually abandoned the rain idea despite being correct in the end. 

[SACRUS]

3-4 hours and this mess should pass but it adds , for some, to the streak of wet weekend days 

 

[Sundog]

1 minute ago, winterwarlock said:

Stop..its literally a 18 hour bust..too many excuses

Try 6 hours. The 6z models still didn't accurately capture this rain. 

[dWave]

Where is this rain coming from? Doesn't look like just a brief shower either. Looks like hours of light to mod rain ahead. 

[winterwarlock]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

Obviously you have never worked in research.

Take praise AND criticism...can't just have applause when they get it right

[SACRUS]

Cloud magnet back and winning out for the next 3-4 hours

[winterwarlock]

1 minute ago, dWave said:

Where is this rain coming from? Doesn't look like just a brief shower either. Looks like hours of light to mod rain ahead. 

Exactly  if the models were wrong 6 hours ago..why believe them now

[Brian5671]

2 minutes ago, dWave said:

Where is this rain coming from? Doesn't look like just a brief shower either. Looks like hours of light to mod rain ahead. 

decaying MCS from Canada....

[Picard]

Someone is getting a sheet ton of rain with the way it's moving, and also appears to be re-loading a bit on it's back end.

[bluewave]

8 minutes ago, Sundog said:

You know what's funny, a bunch of models didn't have anything down here so they still show high 90s for a lot of people lol

At least this is only a minor nuisance. The major issues with MCS systems is when they aren’t forecast and they are high end severe. This is what happened with the surprise September 2010 NYC tornado and macroburst. 

[Sundog]

5 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

Cloud magnet back and winning out for the next 3-4 hours

That thing is really firing on all cylinders in central NY

[Sundog]

2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

At least this is only a minor nuisance. The major issues with MCS systems is when they aren’t forecast and they are high end severe. This is what happened with the September 2010 NYC tornado and macroburst. 

That 2010 tornado destroyed so many giant old trees in my neighborhood. It still upsets me to this day

[gravitylover]

3 minutes ago, Sundog said:

That thing is really firing on all cylinders in central NY

As it rolled off the 'Daks it put a hurt on Rome and that region early this morning. 

[SnoSki14]

Looks like NJ will get its remnants 

[SACRUS]

 

 

[JustinRP37]

This week’s weather does not look as hot or prolonged as we originally thought. Looking like upper 70s low 80s for me by Thursday. Mid 90s Monday and Tuesday. That is if the models that didn’t get today right are right. Also looks like a quite cloudy week ahead. It does look humid though all week.