June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I did run my hypothesis by Grok, and he agrees that climate change can increase average temperatures in the summer while also lowering day to day variability. So this might explain why the data shows warming, while you remember more 95F & 100F days in the past. A sufficient increase in average temperature should be more than enough to overcome the lessened variance in the future.

Yes, these are my thoughts too and exactly what I'm hoping for.

Variability is muted but eventually the elevated averages will win out and boost maximums to extreme levels.

It's happening in the West first because they have dried out.  But eventually water vapor won't be able to hold us back from our fate.

 

[LibertyBell]

18 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Winds already 15knots SSW at the beach. Seabreeze will keep the south shore significantly cooler today. 

barrier islands maybe, not around here.

 

[LibertyBell]

26 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Can't get much worse for mid June 

whats with all the reds on that map lol

[jm1220]

Must be compressional heating. Upper 80s to 90 showing up in places like East Meadow and Valley Stream but the barrier islands are upper 70s. Seabreeze boundary looks like along the Southern State. 

[Sundog]

20 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

whats with all the reds on that map lol

The temperature scheme is about 20 degrees off

[Sundog]

Just now, jm1220 said:

Must be compressional heating. Upper 80s to 90 showing up in places like East Meadow and Valley Stream but the barrier islands are low 80s. Seabreeze boundary looks like along the Southern State. 

Upper 80s by me as well

[LibertyBell]

2 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Must be compressional heating. Upper 80s to 90 showing up in places like East Meadow and Valley Stream but the barrier islands are upper 70s. Seabreeze boundary looks like along the Southern State. 

Yes, this is my favorite kind of heat!

I don't count the barrier islands as part of Long Island, they are separate islands lol.

[LibertyBell]

8 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Must be compressional heating. Upper 80s to 90 showing up in places like East Meadow and Valley Stream but the barrier islands are upper 70s. Seabreeze boundary looks like along the Southern State. 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYVALLE15

a high of 89.4 so far near Peninsula Blvd

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYVALLE55

89.6

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYMALVE20

90.8

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYHEMPS10

92.8

[SACRUS]

 

Up to 85 here 

[SACRUS]

 

So far so clear

 

[TWCCraig]

Sea breeze boundary is visible on KOKX radar, slicing through LI southwest to northeast.

Dew points have gone back up at places like ISP thanks to the sea breeze. The initial westerly wind this morning that brought in some drier air has subsided

[LibertyBell]

Just now, TWCCraig said:

Sea breeze boundary is visible on KOKX radar, slicing through LI southwest to northeast.

Dew points have gone back up at places like ISP thanks to the sea breeze. The initial westerly wind this morning that brought in some drier air has subsided

it reminds me of rain/snow lines in the winter, it would be snowing here and raining out in westhampton lol.

 

[nycwinter]

will central park hit 90 or fall short?

[Sundog]

6 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

will central park hit 90 or fall short?

They have the lowest official reading outside of the eastern Suffolk stations at 83 degrees haha

[Dark Star]

7 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

will central park hit 90 or fall short?

I don't gamble, but I would love to see legalized weather betting...

[LibertyBell]

41 minutes ago, Sundog said:

They have the lowest official reading outside of the eastern Suffolk stations at 83 degrees haha

It's even hotter than them in SW Nassau south of Peninsula Blvd.  This is the furthest south place on Long Island (not including the barrier islands.)

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYWOODM8

88.0

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYWOODM4

88.5

[Sundog]

4 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I don't gamble, but I would love to see legalized weather betting...

Just don't do it with snowfall amounts lol

I can see all kind of arguments about what counts, snowboards at 6 hour intervals, snow depth, grass or artifical surface, ruler slanting, incompetent Central Park Zoo Keeper measurers, wind causing discrepancies in measurement, etc. 

[Cfa]

91 in Lake Grove.

[bluewave]

It’s a shame how much they let that Central Park site go. Since the ASOS was moved under the trees in 1995 it has created a decline in 90° days. You can see the similar charts starting 30 years before the the NYC ASOS was installed.

All other sites away from the immediate sea breeze influence have seen a steep increase in 90° days. The sites with some of the greatest increases in NJ are in park-like settings such as New Brunswick. But those sensors are in clearings instead of under a tree canopy.

If they kept the NYC ASOS in a clearing like before 1995, then NYC  would average around 28 or 29 days reaching instead of the current 18 to 19.  

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJ3951&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1961&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

[Brian5671]

34 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Just don't do it with snowfall amounts lol

I can see all kind of arguments about what counts, snowboards at 6 hour intervals, snow depth, grass or artifical surface, ruler slanting, incompetent Central Park Zoo Keeper measurers, wind causing discrepancies in measurement, etc. 

blaming the models for busting, arguing over whether sleet counts blah blah blah

[LibertyBell]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It’s a shame how much they let that Central Park site go. Since the ASOS was moved under the trees in 1995 it has created a decline in 90° days. You can see the similar charts starting 30 years before the the NYC ASOS was installed.

All other sites away from the immediate sea breeze influence have seen a steep increase in 90° days. The sites with some of the greatest  increases in NJ are in park-like settings like New Brunswick. But those sensors are in clearings instead of under a tree canopy.

If they kept the NYC ASOS in a clearing like before 1995, then NYC  would average around 28 or 29 days reaching instead of the current 18 to 19.  

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NJCLIMATE&station=NJ3951&season=all&dir=above&var=high&threshold=90&year=1961&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

well as we have discussed, Long Island hasn't seen this increase in 90 degree days (but they have seen an increase in 85 degree days).  However as Climate Changer and I discussed, with rapidly increasing averages, it's only a matter of time before we start seeing more 90, 95 and 100 degree days here with or without a seabreeze.  Maybe by 2050 our climate will be like Jacksonville, FL rather than Miami, FL. Big difference. Hell Jacksonville reaches 100 degrees more than Orlando does even though Orlando is more inland and SW of there. Orlando hits 100 degrees at about the same frequency as we do.

On average, Jacksonville, Florida experiences about one day per year with a high temperature of 100 degrees or higher. The last time Jacksonville reached 100 degrees was on June 23, 2022, according to firstcoastnews.com. 

 

Miami has only recorded a temperature of 100 degrees once, on July 21, 1942. Therefore, Miami doesn't typically experience temperatures reaching 100 degrees annually. While Miami is known for its warm climate, the temperatures don't usually climb into the triple digits. 

 

In the past decade, Orlando, FL has only reached 100 degrees once, in 2015. While it's known for hot summers, 100-degree days are rare in Florida. The city also came close to reaching 100 in 2022 with a high of 99 degrees in late June. In 2023, Orlando hit 100 degrees on August 12, breaking a record set in 1938, according to ClickOrlando. 

[bluewave]

13 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

well as we have discussed, Long Island hasn't seen this increase in 90 degree days (but they have seen an increase in 85 degree days).  However as Climate Changer and I discussed, with rapidly increasing averages, it's only a matter of time before we start seeing more 90, 95 and 100 degree days here with or without a seabreeze.  Maybe by 2050 our climate will be like Jacksonville, FL rather than Miami, FL.

 

Islip further from the sea breeze has nearly doubled their 90° day count since the early 60s. So this is more a JFK issue having the ASOS on the water. But you can see how much the 70° minimum count has increased at ISP with many recent top 5s.

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NY4130&season=all&dir=above&var=low&threshold=70&year=1893&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

[SACRUS]

 

88 here now

[LibertyBell]

30 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Islip further from the sea breeze has nearly doubled their 90° day count since the early 60s. So this is more a JFK issue having the ASOS on the water. But you can see how much the 70° minimum count has increased at ISP with many recent top 5s.

 

https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=74&network=NYCLIMATE&station=NY4130&season=all&dir=above&var=low&threshold=70&year=1893&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Islip McArthur Airport is actually in Bohemia which is more akin to mid island.

I'm not sure that NYC would be hitting 30 90 degree day averages, because even before the vegetation issue in the late 90s and beyond, the early 90s heat was not as extended as our heatwaves were in the 40s and 50s.  I think our climate is becoming way too moist to sustain 95 and 100 degree heat on the level we saw back then until we warm up to the level of Jacksonville, FL.

[FPizz]

3 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Precisely, high temperatures. I prefer a Jacksonville climate vs Miami.

Jacksonville is about 15 miles inland.  Makes a huge difference.  

[LibertyBell]

1 minute ago, FPizz said:

Jacksonville is about 15 miles inland.  Makes a huge difference.  

But they're hotter than Orlando which is even further inland and to the south.

[FPizz]

87 right now.  

[LibertyBell]

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYVALLE55

 

93.4

 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYWOODM4

 

90.3

 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYWOODM8

 

91.8

 

https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYVALLE15

 

89.6

[Brian5671]

really weird feels like summer out!  84 here

[ForestHillWx]

Having worked in New Brunswick, that city is at least 5 degrees warmer than the immediate surrounding towns on any given day. Not saying CP is accurate but NB might not be the best example  

The amount of high rise buildings under construction will only help to jack those numbers.