June 2025 discussion-obs: Summerlike

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

It depends on the bug. Lanterflies have been found to not do the damage they were feared to cause. Thank goodness. 

The Asian Longhorned Beetle was bad though. It would kill the tree. But because it's easy to spot and doesn't move as swiftly they actually did a good job of keeping it under control. 

Yeah the lantern fly craze had allot to do with PR from the wine industry as they definitely damage grapes. But overall are just a nuisance.

Just raked out my veggie garden which is exploding with the warm sunny weather today. 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Sundog said:

It depends on the bug. Lanterflies have been found to not do the damage they were feared to cause. Thank goodness. 

The Asian Longhorned Beetle was bad though. It would kill the tree. But because it's easy to spot and doesn't move as swiftly they actually did a good job of keeping it under control. 

Lanternfly numbers are actually down this year so far anyway.

[ILoveWinter]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Lanternfly numbers are actually down this year so far anyway.

Don't they start coming out in July though?

[gravitylover]

2 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Ash borer beetle and southern pine bark beetle have killed literally billions of trees in the east. Next on deck is beech leaf disease. Add that to American chestnut blight and Dutch elms disease. Eastern forests are a shell of what they once were. Acid rain and climate change are the final death blows to what’s left. 

Don't forget Oak wilt. That's becoming more of an issue.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

27 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Don't forget Oak wilt. That's becoming more of an issue.

I Left that one out because it doesn’t have a 100% mortality rate like borrer and beech leaf. But yeah it is also a problem. If we lost oaks, that would be an ecosystem destroyer. They feed tons of wild life and we do not have chestnuts as a backup. 

[Sundog]

53 minutes ago, Monty said:

Why are you even responding to his insanity? Cut down hundreds of thousands of acres and then manage a replant of different trees? 

 

Liberty would make the onceler blush, and at least the onceler has a profit motive. 

The only Onceler I know is from The Lorax lol

[SACRUS]

 

Highs:   Wet central park growth keeping NYC lower 

 

 

TEB: 87
EWR: 86
BLM: 85
PHL: 85
ACY: 85
LGA: 84
New Brnswck: 84
JFK: 83
TTN: 82
ISP: 81
NYC: 81

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Highs:   Wet central park growth keeping NYC lower 

 

 

TEB: 87
EWR: 86
BLM: 85
PHL: 85
ACY: 85
LGA: 84
New Brnswck: 84
JFK: 83
TTN: 82
ISP: 81
NYC: 81

 

lol JFK beats Central Park on a southerly wind..... nice

[psv88]

83  today, 65 now. Warm night

[SACRUS]

 

71 / 62  - could be the warmest day so far for many and the 2nd for some and first for others 90 degree day.  A brief summer blast, before the next front approaches and linger over or near by with 96 hours of mainly cloudy and around 1 - 1.5 inches of rain, which trended more south with the recent forecacts.  Clouds could arrive as early as Friday late morning and with any hope or luck we can trend drier and maybe get pokes of sun on Saturday.

Warmer / drier by the 17th with heat building north and east by the 20th with next shot at some heat.  Looks overall warm  - hot and perhaps wetter as center of the ridge looks to center just west initially.

 

6/12 : Hottest day of the next 7
6/14 - 6/16 : Cloudy / wet cooler
6/17 - 6/19 : warmer
6/20 - beyond :  Heat potential

 

[SACRUS]

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 97 (2017)
NYC: 93 (2017)
LGA: 96 (2017)
JFK: 92 (2017)


Lows:

EWR: 47 (1951)
NYC: 48 (1979)
LGA: 49 (1979)
JFK: 49 (1980)

 

Historical:

 

1881 - Severe thunderstorms spawned more than half a dozen tornadoes in the Lower Missouri Valley. Five of the tornadoes touched down near Saint Joseph MO. In south central Kansas a tornado nearly wiped out the town of Floral. Hail and high winds struck Iowa and southern Minnesota. In Minnesota, Blue Earth City reported five inches of rain in one hour. (David Ludlum)

1885: A tornado in Iowa blew part of a train off the tracks, injuring three passengers. Three coaches and a baggage car were lifted into the air and onto a field. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1899: New Richmond, Wisconsin: A killer tornado rampages through New Richmond, Wisconsin, 114 people die, many attending an outdoor circus.

1915: An estimated F4 tornado moved northeast from northwest of Waterville, Iowa crossing the Mississippi River two miles south of Ferryville, Wisconsin. A man and his daughter were killed in one of three homes that were obliterated southwest of "Heytman," a small railroad station on the Mississippi River. 60 buildings and eight homes were destroyed in Wisconsin. This tornado caused approximately $200,000 in damage. In addition to this tornado, another estimated F4 tornado moved northeast across Fayette and Clayton Counties in northeast Iowa. One farm was devastated, the house and barn leveled. Heavy machinery was thrown 300 yards. Clothing was carried two miles.

1947 - A heavy wet snow blanketed much of southern and central Wyoming, and gave many places their heaviest and latest snow of record. Totals included 18.4 inches at Lander, 8.7 inches at Cheyenne, and 4.5 inches at Casper. (11th-12th) (The Weather Channel)

1948: The Columbia River Basin flood peaked on this date in the Northwest. The flood produced the highest water level in the basin since the flood there in 1894. The damage estimate for the 1948 flood was $101 million, and 75 lives were lost. 


1956: The upper Midwest was in the midst of a six-day stretch of 90 degree plus temperatures. The high of 97° at Chicago, IL and 95° at Rockford, IL set daily high temperature records. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1959: A heavy thunderstorm was accompanied by a small tornado at Celeron near Jamestown, NY and gave a two inch rainfall in 75 minutes in Colden, NY. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1968: Tropical Storm Abby moved northeast and crossed central Florida, briefly reaching hurricane status in the Gulf of Mexico. The tropical storm then moved along the coast of Florida and into Georgia, then made a loop as a tropical depression through the Carolinas, moving south to the North Carolina/South Carolina coast. Locations that received record daily rainfalls included: Philadelphia, PA: 3.05 inches, Reagan National Airport in Washington, DC : 2.23 inches, Dulles Airport at Sterling, VA: 1.88 inches, Wilmington, DE: 1.75 inches, Newark, NJ: 1.74 inches and Williamsport, PA: 1.30 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)

1969 - Record late season snows covered parts of Montana. Five inches was reported at Great Falls and east of Broadus. Billings, MT, tied their June record with lows of 32 degrees on the 12th and the 13th. (The Weather Channel)

1978: Lightning killed a 14 year old boy running home to avoid the rain at Lauderhill, FL. The lightning struck a pine tree near the boy and severely burned his legs and knocked his shoes off. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History)


1983 - The state of Utah was beseiged by floods and mudslides. Streets in downtown Salt Lake City were sandbagged and turned into rivers of relief. The town of Thistle was completely inundated as a mudslide made a natural dam. (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms in Nebraska produced softball size hail around Fremont and Ames, and 3.5 inches of rain in less than one hour. Four and a half inches in less than an hour caused flooding around Ithica, NE. A tornado destroyed a mobile home near Broken Bow, NE, injuring both occupants. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - Fifteen cities in the southeastern U.S. reported record low temperatures for the date, including Asheville with a reading of 40 degrees. Drought conditions continued to intensify across the eastern half of the nation. Rainfall at Nashville, TN, was running 12.5 inches below normal. (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Tennessee Valley to the Central Appalachians in the afternoon and evening, and produced severe weather in Oklahoma and Texas during the evening and night. Thunderstorms spawned ten tornadoes, and there were 164 reports of large hail and damaging winds. Thunderstorms produced wind gusts to 100 mph at Amarillo, TX, and wind gusts to 110 mph at Denton TX. Hail three inches in diameter was reported at Tucumcari NM. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

2005 - A tornado in Hammond, Wisconsin damaged 22 homes and produced $3.6 million in damage (Associated Press).

[SACRUS]

 

Heaviest rains now forecasted south into the MD/VA area this is majority Sat - Mon;

 

[bluewave]

Perhaps we could see our first 95° readings of the season in late June if the WAR and ridge out West link up. But the wild card will probably be if we can get a break in this wet pattern. If it stays too wet, then we could only top out in the low 90s. But a few days of full sun and drier conditions could easily result in mid 90s or higher at the usual warm spots. Especially with the drought out West into Canada. 

Ridges trying to link up in late June

 

 

[uofmiami]

Curious to see what heat can be recorded before retreat, if phase 3 arrives in the extended.

 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 6/10/2025 at 11:45 PM, dWave said:

Normal highs already max out in the upper 80s. Since July daily averages are pretty flat, the avg high for the month is nearly the same.

87/72 at LGA

EWR 87/70

Teterboro 87/69

Meanwhile Central Park tops out at 85/71.

Philly 88/70

Down in DC they now have normals in July at 90...90/73

To clarify, I was referring to the mean high temperature for all of meteorological summer. As an example, a linear regression for Newark shows an increase in mean summer highs from 82.9F to 85.8F between 1960 & 2024. So the mean summer high should reach into the upper 80s over the next couple decades, at which time, July averages would probably be near 90F.

[SACRUS]

 

Just hit 80 here - going to be close for first 90 here and 2nd other spots.

[forkyfork]

we have decent lapse rates today, maybe we can get a strong storm or two later

[LibertyBell]

9 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Just hit 80 here - going to be close for first 90 here and 2nd other spots.

I always had this benchmark for high heat going back to the early 90s....

if we hit 80 by 10 AM we stand a decent chance of having the high hit 90.

if we hit 90 by 10 AM we stand a decent chance of having the high hit 100.

It worked well in the 90s and even in years like 2010 and 2011 too, but not since then because of onshore flow =\

 

[TheClimateChanger]

On 6/10/2025 at 11:34 AM, LibertyBell said:

Hopefully an increase in 95 and 100 degree days too even with onshore flow (with higher SST.)

It will probably be like Miami. Looking at a linear regression of 90F+ days, we can see an increase from 31 to 117 such days since 1960. In 1972, there were only 3 days at or above 90F for the entire year! So it went from about one month of 90s to about 1/3 of the calendar year in the 90s.

[LibertyBell]

4 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It will probably be like Miami. Looking at a linear regression of 90F+ days, we can see an increase from 31 to 117 such days since 1960. In 1972, there were only 3 days at or above 90F for the entire year! So it went from about one month of 90s to about 1/3 of the calendar year in the 90s.

Whats the difference between Miami and Jacksonville..... Jacksonville is further north but gets hotter in the summer, why?

 

[Sundog]

6 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It will probably be like Miami. Looking at a linear regression of 90F+ days, we can see an increase from 31 to 117 such days since 1960. In 1972, there were only 3 days at or above 90F for the entire year! So it went from about one month of 90s to about 1/3 of the calendar year in the 90s.

Miami's average high was probably already mid to upper 80s so a couple degrees increase in averages puts their number of 90+ degree days way higher.

They probably had a ton of days maxxing out at 88 or 89 and now they have all those days maxxing out at 90 or 91 instead. 

[TheClimateChanger]

3 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

It will probably be like Miami. Looking at a linear regression of 90F+ days, we can see an increase from 31 to 117 such days since 1960. In 1972, there were only 3 days at or above 90F for the entire year! So it went from about one month of 90s to about 1/3 of the calendar year in the 90s.

Although I think Bristol, Tennesee is probably a better analog. 20 years ago, a regression from 1960 shows very little increase in 90+ days. The same regression run through 2024 now shows an increase of more than 3 weeks of such days. Definitely illustrates the folly of extrapolating from an existing trend without looking at what's going on behind the data. If one had examined the Bristol data closely, they would have noted an increase in the mean high temperature but found the increase in 90+ days somewhat offset by a decrease in internal variability [i.e., day-to-day variance]. So once normal highs climbed a bit more, the number of 90+ days exploded in the last 20 years.

1960-2004

1960-2024

[TheClimateChanger]

8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Whats the difference between Miami and Jacksonville..... Jacksonville is further north but gets hotter in the summer, why?

 

By hotter, I'm assuming you mean by maximum temperatures. By mean temps, Miami is about 2-3F warmer than Jacksonville. I would chalk that up to JAX having a more continental-influenced climate. While both are on the coast, Miami is at the tip of peninsular Florida. The increased latitude is less significant in the summertime, with insolation probably being about the same at both locations.

[LibertyBell]

Just now, TheClimateChanger said:

By hotter, I'm assuming you mean by maximum temperatures. By mean temps, Miami is about 2-3F warmer than Jacksonville. I would chalk that up to JAX having a more continental-influenced climate. While both are on the coast, Miami is at the tip of peninsular Florida. The increased latitude is less significant in the summertime, with insolation probably being about the same at both locations.

Precisely, high temperatures. I prefer a Jacksonville climate vs Miami.

[LibertyBell]

27 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

Just hit 80 here - going to be close for first 90 here and 2nd other spots.

80 here too and the projected high for here is also 90 with westerly winds most of the day.

a great day!!

[WeatherGeek2025]

Hope you guys are doing good.

 

Anyone have been having sore throat the last few days, i'm wondering if it has anything to do with the wildfires up north in Canada. I mean my throat just actually hurts!

[TheClimateChanger]

27 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Whats the difference between Miami and Jacksonville..... Jacksonville is further north but gets hotter in the summer, why?

 

I did run my hypothesis by Grok, and he agrees that climate change can increase average temperatures in the summer while also lowering day to day variability. So this might explain why the data shows warming, while you remember more 95F & 100F days in the past. A sufficient increase in average temperature should be more than enough to overcome the lessened variance in the future.

[Sundog]

9 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

I did run my hypothesis by Grok, and he agrees that climate change can increase average temperatures in the summer while also lowering day to day variability. So this might explain why the data shows warming, while you remember more 95F & 100F days in the past. A sufficient increase in average temperature should be more than enough to overcome the lessened variance in the future.

Wow that is very informative comprehensive response

[Stormlover74]

Can't get much worse for mid June 

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

Winds already 15knots SSW at the beach. Seabreeze will keep the south shore significantly cooler today.