Jrlg1181 Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It would be an all time win for the second tier models. Agreed...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Meanwhile Euro pretty much undid yesterday’s walk backs. positivity! yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 18Z WB AI brings Imelda up the Bay next weekend....could be a long week of tracking ahead... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted September 26 Share Posted September 26 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 18Z WB AI brings Imelda up the Bay next weekend....could be a long week of tracking ahead... october 1-10 miracle now, because we honestly have no fucking idea when this storm will hit (if at all) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 26 Author Share Posted September 26 Somebody mentioned Joaquin the other page and man, this might be worse. I don’t think there’s anyone that even has a clue of what this will do. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: 18Z WB AI brings Imelda up the Bay next weekend....could be a long week of tracking ahead... Tucked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27 Author Share Posted September 27 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Tucked. Good to see the Euro AI take up the annual challenge of throwing tropical up the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 WB 18Z 3K at hr 60 has a hurricane just off the coast of Florida.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 WB 0Z RDPS is closer to the SC coast. Very heavy rains and hurricane force winds close to the coast at the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 It looks like nice weather next week with low dewpoints. I guess that's a good backup plan since the weather looks boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Overnight runs mostly going with the stall at the coast and then move east idea. Euro AI the notable exception but I don’t think it’s very good with tropical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27 Author Share Posted September 27 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Overnight runs mostly going with the stall at the coast and then move east idea. Euro AI the notable exception but I don’t think it’s very good with tropical? It had the stall and move east before the Euro/GFS and ensembles. The AI models have actually been excellent this season on balance. Of course, we’ll see how this all verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27 Author Share Posted September 27 Euro AI is back to the idea of running this up the coast as it gets trapped under the ridge and the Euro at 144 seems like it wants to trap future Imelda as well. Not worth much at this time but still something to watch. If the ridge doesn’t roll over to block the escape route future Imelda goes right OTS. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 It is a really interesting how this evolves. As Humberto moves around the Atlantic ridge it "tugs" on Imelda by causing a path of least resistance. But Humberto is far enough along in the recurve that it accelerates north and allows the ridge to build over Imelda. How exactly this plays out determines how far offshore Imelda gets, which in turn affects how close it can get to the US coast when it gets picked up by the next trough. The 6z GFS pulls it pretty far out to sea, so any landfall is in the Canadian maritimes or not at all. The 6z Euro leaves it off the Carolina coast through 144, which is markedly different form the 0z run. The 0z GEM eventually takes it into New England! Is there a win for us? Very unlikely. We'd need for it to be left behind and just churn over the Gulf Stream and then have a trough dig far enough to bring it in to us. I'd be more optimistic about this in later October, but it seems like a pipe dream here. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro AI is back to the idea of running this up the coast as it gets trapped under the ridge and the Euro at 144 seems like it wants to trap future Imelda as well. Not worth much at this time but still something to watch. If the ridge doesn’t roll over to block the escape route future Imelda goes right OTS. 6z EPS has the latter scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Lucy’d with rain… We better get a true prolonged wet pattern after the Niña breaks… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 JB just posted and of course likes the EURO solution of Imelda getting trapped under the ridge and threatening NC northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Just now, Weather Will said: JB just posted and of course likes the EURO solution of Imelda getting trapped under the ridge and threatening NC northward. I’ve been looking at the main tropical thread and posts from the people behind CWG. It’s looking like it’s a pipe dream, screwed over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27 Author Share Posted September 27 About as impressive as you’ll ever see in the Atlantic basin. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 9 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: About as impressive as you’ll ever see in the Atlantic basin. The stadium effect is incredible. Looks like a West Pac super Typhoon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 It's amazing how much Imelda's rain for the MA is following the same rug pull pattern as the Feb. 19-20 incident... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted September 27 Author Share Posted September 27 Humberto C5 Second of the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Stick a fork in Imelda, it's over for us. It may even be over before it even begins. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 hour ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Stick a fork in Imelda, it's over for us. It may even be over before it even begins. Yep going wide right like the others Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Just now, winter_warlock said: Yep going wide right like the others Helene made a hard left last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 Just now, JenkinsJinkies said: Helene made a hard left last year. I don't wanna see any destruction, but some nice wind and heavy rain would be nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 18z EURO trying to bring it back to ruin our next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted September 27 Share Posted September 27 1 minute ago, Ji said: 18z EURO trying to bring it back to ruin our next weekend Again, we’re getting a Feb 19-20 redux. This is the “throw us a bone” run and 0z will be even further south and east than 12z was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 Humberto is a beast that is now moving due west.....hmmm.... wonder if the counter clockwise flow around the TD is actually influencing it. No model has it a threat coming to the coast yet. WB 18Z Humberto tracks. NHC excerpt from 5pm discussion. Only a slight westward adjustment was made to the track forecast. Humberto is moving slightly faster, but westward, near 9 kt. The hurricane is still forecast to move around the subtropical ridge for the next few days before it interacts with the aforementioned trough and accelerates quickly northeastward. The spread in the model track guidance has increased since the last advisory, particularly with regard to how fast Humberto will accelerate northeastward in 4 or 5 days. Confidence in that aspect of the forecast has therefore decreased, even though little change was made to the official forecast. The NHC forecast remains generally based on a blend of the GDMI, the AIGEFS and HCCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted September 28 Share Posted September 28 WB 18Z EURO is not letting SC off the hook yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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