Jrlg1181 Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 16 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It would be an all time win for the second tier models. Agreed...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 17 hours ago Share Posted 17 hours ago 2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Meanwhile Euro pretty much undid yesterday’s walk backs. positivity! yay! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 18Z WB AI brings Imelda up the Bay next weekend....could be a long week of tracking ahead... 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago 10 minutes ago, Weather Will said: 18Z WB AI brings Imelda up the Bay next weekend....could be a long week of tracking ahead... october 1-10 miracle now, because we honestly have no fucking idea when this storm will hit (if at all) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 16 hours ago Author Share Posted 16 hours ago Somebody mentioned Joaquin the other page and man, this might be worse. I don’t think there’s anyone that even has a clue of what this will do. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: 18Z WB AI brings Imelda up the Bay next weekend....could be a long week of tracking ahead... Tucked. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 13 hours ago Author Share Posted 13 hours ago 2 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Tucked. Good to see the Euro AI take up the annual challenge of throwing tropical up the bay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 13 hours ago Share Posted 13 hours ago WB 18Z 3K at hr 60 has a hurricane just off the coast of Florida.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 12 hours ago Share Posted 12 hours ago WB 0Z RDPS is closer to the SC coast. Very heavy rains and hurricane force winds close to the coast at the end of the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago It looks like nice weather next week with low dewpoints. I guess that's a good backup plan since the weather looks boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago Overnight runs mostly going with the stall at the coast and then move east idea. Euro AI the notable exception but I don’t think it’s very good with tropical? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Overnight runs mostly going with the stall at the coast and then move east idea. Euro AI the notable exception but I don’t think it’s very good with tropical? It had the stall and move east before the Euro/GFS and ensembles. The AI models have actually been excellent this season on balance. Of course, we’ll see how this all verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 4 hours ago Author Share Posted 4 hours ago Euro AI is back to the idea of running this up the coast as it gets trapped under the ridge and the Euro at 144 seems like it wants to trap future Imelda as well. Not worth much at this time but still something to watch. If the ridge doesn’t roll over to block the escape route future Imelda goes right OTS. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago It is a really interesting how this evolves. As Humberto moves around the Atlantic ridge it "tugs" on Imelda by causing a path of least resistance. But Humberto is far enough along in the recurve that it accelerates north and allows the ridge to build over Imelda. How exactly this plays out determines how far offshore Imelda gets, which in turn affects how close it can get to the US coast when it gets picked up by the next trough. The 6z GFS pulls it pretty far out to sea, so any landfall is in the Canadian maritimes or not at all. The 6z Euro leaves it off the Carolina coast through 144, which is markedly different form the 0z run. The 0z GEM eventually takes it into New England! Is there a win for us? Very unlikely. We'd need for it to be left behind and just churn over the Gulf Stream and then have a trough dig far enough to bring it in to us. I'd be more optimistic about this in later October, but it seems like a pipe dream here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 hours ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro AI is back to the idea of running this up the coast as it gets trapped under the ridge and the Euro at 144 seems like it wants to trap future Imelda as well. Not worth much at this time but still something to watch. If the ridge doesn’t roll over to block the escape route future Imelda goes right OTS. 6z EPS has the latter scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 37 minutes ago Share Posted 37 minutes ago Lucy’d with rain… We better get a true prolonged wet pattern after the Niña breaks… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted 22 minutes ago Share Posted 22 minutes ago JB just posted and of course likes the EURO solution of Imelda getting trapped under the ridge and threatening NC northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted 20 minutes ago Share Posted 20 minutes ago Just now, Weather Will said: JB just posted and of course likes the EURO solution of Imelda getting trapped under the ridge and threatening NC northward. I’ve been looking at the main tropical thread and posts from the people behind CWG. It’s looking like it’s a pipe dream, screwed over again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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