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2025 Tropical Tracking Thread


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10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

18Z WB AI brings Imelda up the Bay next weekend....could be a long week of tracking ahead...

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october 1-10 miracle now, because we honestly have no fucking idea when this storm will hit (if at all)

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

Overnight runs mostly going with the stall at the coast and then move east idea. Euro AI the notable exception but I don’t think it’s very good with tropical?

It had the stall and move east before the Euro/GFS and ensembles. The AI models have actually been excellent this season on balance. Of course, we’ll see how this all verifies.

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Euro AI is back to the idea of running this up the coast as it gets trapped under the ridge and the Euro at 144 seems like it wants to trap future Imelda as well. Not worth much at this time but still something to watch. If the ridge doesn’t roll over to block the escape route future Imelda goes right OTS.

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