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1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

As we all know once we get the droopy cut off low pattern to start it's damn near impossible to get rid of. 

I'd be fascinated to know why this is, some patterns seem to be very stable, like the cut off low pattern now and the warm/wet cold/dry pattern in the winter.  I wonder if the two are somehow related and the stability of both patterns are connected.

 

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2 minutes ago, Sundog said:

I saw all the roads were closed approaching Jones Beach. 

Yeah at a certain point there is now where left to put the cars. 
I was just thinking this would be a pretty epic pattern in winter. A nice snow storm Thursday followed by days and days of heavy snow squalls. 

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1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah at a certain point there is now where left to put the cars. 
I was just thinking this would be a pretty epic pattern in winter. A nice snow storm Thursday followed by days and days of heavy snow squalls. 

That’s the way of it. Best snow pattern in May lol

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7 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

It's becoming more difficult to bet on the change to warmer/hotter weather. The pattern of the cold cyclonic flow aloft keeps repeating itself to the point that I think it's going to be very hard to get out of this. Each time a curly cue upper low develops it helps the trough deepen along the coast allowing for more of them. Meanwhile the height rises/warmth and heat are well over the top and staying to our west. As I see it now this could be the story through a good part of June even. We may be waiting until the last week of June or first half of July to see our first 90+ degree day. For now it looks as though rainfall continues to be near to above average with mainly cooler than normal temps, maybe a few isolated warm days here and there but no warmer than normal pattern.

WX/PT

 

Would watch 6/5  period for first 90 - the park maybe delayed with the wetness there and growth.

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3 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Would watch 6/5  period for first 90 - the park maybe delayed with the wetness there and growth.

Yes the later Sunday maps did show the heat building further eastward and less over the top. But they keep flipping back and forth and first we have to see how the models handle the rain maker next weekend, whether or not it is suppressed and if not how long it sticks around with another cold pool aloft.

WX/PT

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21 hours ago, WX-PA said:

isn't CP all time high 106 from the 1930's? 112-114 wow. Has the earth warmed that much ? With the marine influence on the coast I doubt NYC temps could ever reach that high. The hottest day I ever remember was July 15th 1995. 102 with dewpoints near 80 could kill you. And it did for many of the old in Chicago.

Yeah, NYC was able to reach 106° back in 1936 when the weather equipment wasn’t underneath a dense stand of trees which grew up around and over the site. Our last series of summers without marine influence was back in 2010-2013. It’s when Newark to parts of Long Island reached 108° with strong westerly downsloping offshore flow. 

Now that the global background temperatures have jumped much higher than 2010 twice in 15-16 and 23-24, we have been getting onshore summer flow due to the ridge expanding more to the east of New England. While our summers have still been well above average temperatures with record dew points, drought feedback is necessary to set an all-time high in the warm season.

All of our new monthly maximum temperatures have occurred in the winter and fall since 15-16. We set an all-time winter max of 80° in February 2018 which beat the previous record of 76° by 4°. The new all-time October high of 96° back in 2019 beat the old record by 3°. That inky took a brief flash drought which emerged in September. But nothing like the record droughts further back in the past. 

The most extreme summer heatwave in the CONUS since 2020 was in the Pacific Northwest back in 2021. Stations best their all-time summer high by 6°. So if our 108° summer heat back in 2010 was ever exceeded by 6°, then it would be 114°. But there isn’t any present indication in the new much wetter climate with more onshore flow that that type of scenario would be likely anytime soon here. 

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Happy memorial day and thanks to all who have served or are swrving

 

59 / 47 off a chilly low of 46.  The rut is over.  The 96+ hours of clouds, cool, showers and chill has ended with partly to mostly sunny (staying that) and low to mid 70s.   We'll have a brief reprieve before the next system moves in later tomorrow with another 72 hours of clouds and showers later Tue - Thursday.   Any breaks in the clouds tomorrow will push temps approaching 80 in the warm spots but unlikely as clouds may arrive by mid morning.   0.25 - 0.50 Tue - Thu with most falling Wednesday afternoon / night.   Friday clear our and warm up upper 70s / low 80s.   Trough send next front through this coming Saturday which could see light rain/showers perhaps a storm.   Trough slowly fills out and a much warmer - hot look 6/5 - beyond.   Euro the warmer but GFS also showing a much overall warmer (above normal) in the period and beyond).  Time will tell.

For here this memorial day weekend was one of the coolest cloudiest - saved by brief stretches of sun breaking out Sat and Sun today from a complete cloud out.

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

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Records:

Highs:

EWR: 96 (1965)
NYC: 95 (1880)
LGA: 94 (2010)
JFK: 91 (2010)



 

Lows:

EWR: 44 (1967)
NYC: 42 (1967)
LGA: 45 (1972)
JFK: 52 (1967)
 

Historical:

 

1771 - A famous Virginia flood occurred as heavy rains in the mountains brought all rivers in the state to record high levels. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1880: Record maximum temperature for Washington DC. for the date is 96 °F. Boston, MA recorded its highest temperature ever for May of 97 °F.

1917 - A tornado touched down near Louisiana MO about noon and remained on the ground for a distance of 293 miles, finally lifting seven hours and twenty minutes later in eastern Jennings County, IN. The twister cut a swath of destruction two and a half miles wide through Mattoon, IL. There were 101 persons killed in the tornado, including 53 at Mattoon, and 38 at Charleston IL. Damage from the storm totalled 2.5 million dollars. (David Ludlum)

1984 - Thunderstorms during the late evening and early morning hours produced 6 to 13 inches of rain at Tulsa OK in six hours (8.63 inches at the airport). Flooding claimed fourteen lives and caused 90 million dollars property damage. 4600 cars, 743 houses, and 387 apartments were destroyed or severely damage in the flood. (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms in southwest Iowa spawned five tornadoes and produced up to ten inches of rain. Seven inches of rain at Red Oak forced evacuation of nearly 100 persons from the town. Record flooding took place in southwest Iowa the last twelve days of May as up to 17 inches of rain drenched the area. Total damage to crops and property was estimated at 16 million dollars. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - There was "frost on the roses" in the Upper Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachian Mountain Region. Thirteen cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Youngstown OH with a reading of 30 degrees. Evening thunderstorms in North Dakota produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Jamestown. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms in produced large hail in eastern Oklahoma during the pre-dawn hours, and again during the evening and night. Hail two inches in diameter was reported near Prague, and thunderstorm winds gusted to 70 mph near Kenefic. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Colorado to western Arkansas and northeastern Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes, and there were eighty-eight reports of large hail or damaging winnds. Evening thunderstorms over central Oklahoma spawned strong tornadoes east of Hinton and east of Binger, produced hail three inches in diameter at Minco, and produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Blanchard. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

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EWR Memorial Day

 

Weather date - H / L / R

 

5/29/2000 : 66 / 54 (0)
5/28/2001 : 75 / 58 (0.04)
5/27/2002 : 76 / 60 (0)
5/26/2003 : 58 / 51 (1.29)
5/31/2004: 66 / 57 (0.36)
5/30/2005: 78 / 56 (0)
5/29/2006: 94 / 63 (0)
5/28/2007:  86 / 66 (0)
5/26/2008:  84 / 54 (0)
5/25/2009: 71 / 50 (0)
5/31/2010: 89/ 66 (0.02)
5/30/2011: 92/ 71 (0.30)
5/28/2012: 91 / 70 (0)
5/27/2013: 76 / 46 (0)
5/26/2014: 88 / 60 (0)
5/25/2015: 90 / 60 (0)
5/30/2016: 83 / 69 (1.57)
5/29/2017: 61 / 57 (0.14)
5/28/2018: 71 / 56 (0)
5/27/2019: 82 / 64 (0)
5/25/2020: 73 / 56 (0)
5/31/2021: 76 / 51 (0)
5/30/2022:  91 / 62 (0)
5/29/2023: 79 / 59 (0)
5/27/2024: 78 / 66 (0.33) 
5/26/2025: 75/ 54 (0)

 

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23 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Cooldown:

 

probably one more day today -2 to - 6

 

 

EWR:

5/19: 73 / 52 (-1)
5/20: 71/50 (-3)
5/21: 59 / 50 (-10)
5/22: 53 / 50 (-13)
5/23: 67 / 48 (-7)
5/24:  69 / 50 (-6)
5/25: 71 / 50 (-5)



NYC:

5/19: 69 /51 (-4)
5/20: 67 / 49 (-6)
5/21: 59 / 49 (-11)
5/22: 51 / 48 (-15)
5/23: 63 / 47 (-10)
5/24: 64 / 48 (-9)
5/25: 66 / 52 (-7)


LGA:

5/19:  70 / 52 (-4)
5/20: 68 / 50 (-6)
5/21: 59 / 49 (-11)
5/22: 53 / 48 (-15)
5/23:  67 / 48 (-8)
5/24: 65 / 51 (-8)
5/25 : 67 / 54 (-5)

JFK:

5/19: 74 / 53 (+3)
5/20: 69 / 50 (-3)
5/21: 58 / 50 (-8)
5/22: 55 / 49 (-10)
5/23: 67 / 48 (-5)
5/24: 68 / 51 (-3)
5/25: 70 / 54 (-1)

 

Should be at normal today

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16 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

We have the air show at jones so it was a beyond capacity crowd today. Believe it or not there were a few people in the water. 

I think we should move Memorial Day to the first Monday in June.  It's ridiculous we still have a week of May left after it so it's not even Met summer for another week yet.

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

EWR Memorial Day

 

Weather date - H / L / R

 

5/29/2000 : 66 / 54 (0)
5/28/2001 : 75 / 58 (0.04)
5/27/2002 : 76 / 60 (0)
5/26/2003 : 58 / 51 (1.29)
5/31/2004: 66 / 57 (0.36)
5/30/2005: 78 / 56 (0)
5/29/2006: 94 / 63 (0)
5/28/2007:  86 / 66 (0)
5/26/2008:  84 / 54 (0)
5/25/2009: 71 / 50 (0)
5/31/2010: 89/ 66 (0.02)
5/30/2011: 92/ 71 (0.30)
5/28/2012: 91 / 70 (0)
5/27/2013: 76 / 46 (0)
5/26/2014: 88 / 60 (0)
5/25/2015: 90 / 60 (0)
5/30/2016: 83 / 69 (1.57)
5/29/2017: 61 / 57 (0.14)
5/28/2018: 71 / 56 (0)
5/27/2019: 82 / 64 (0)
5/25/2020: 73 / 56 (0)
5/31/2021: 76 / 51 (0)
5/30/2022:  91 / 62 (0)
5/29/2023: 79 / 59 (0)
5/27/2024: 78 / 66 (0.33) 
5/26/2025: H/ L (R)

 

One of our earliest Memorial Days,  with a full week of May/Met Spring left.

We really should move Memorial Day to the first Monday in June.

 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Very comfortable temperature pattern for this time of year continuing right into early June over the next 10 days. Very familiar over the top warmth into Canada. So the first 90° of the season is running late.


IMG_3677.thumb.png.50f99539f5d60d6cbb3f547a6f267f8a.png
 

IMG_3678.thumb.png.9f1c7f7e6cb5cdde3615fcf298fd3949.png

It's not really hot in Canada though is it?  Just in the low 80s or close to there?

 

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1 hour ago, SACRUS said:

 

Records:

Highs:

EWR: 96 (1965)
NYC: 95 (1880)
LGA: 94 (2010)
JFK: 91 (2010)



 

Lows:

EWR: 44 (1967)
NYC: 42 (1967)
LGA: 45 (1972)
JFK: 52 (1967)
 

Historical:

 

1771 - A famous Virginia flood occurred as heavy rains in the mountains brought all rivers in the state to record high levels. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1880: Record maximum temperature for Washington DC. for the date is 96 °F. Boston, MA recorded its highest temperature ever for May of 97 °F.

1917 - A tornado touched down near Louisiana MO about noon and remained on the ground for a distance of 293 miles, finally lifting seven hours and twenty minutes later in eastern Jennings County, IN. The twister cut a swath of destruction two and a half miles wide through Mattoon, IL. There were 101 persons killed in the tornado, including 53 at Mattoon, and 38 at Charleston IL. Damage from the storm totalled 2.5 million dollars. (David Ludlum)

1984 - Thunderstorms during the late evening and early morning hours produced 6 to 13 inches of rain at Tulsa OK in six hours (8.63 inches at the airport). Flooding claimed fourteen lives and caused 90 million dollars property damage. 4600 cars, 743 houses, and 387 apartments were destroyed or severely damage in the flood. (Storm Data) (The Weather Channel)

1987 - Thunderstorms in southwest Iowa spawned five tornadoes and produced up to ten inches of rain. Seven inches of rain at Red Oak forced evacuation of nearly 100 persons from the town. Record flooding took place in southwest Iowa the last twelve days of May as up to 17 inches of rain drenched the area. Total damage to crops and property was estimated at 16 million dollars. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

1988 - There was "frost on the roses" in the Upper Ohio Valley and the Central Appalachian Mountain Region. Thirteen cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Youngstown OH with a reading of 30 degrees. Evening thunderstorms in North Dakota produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Jamestown. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1989 - Thunderstorms in produced large hail in eastern Oklahoma during the pre-dawn hours, and again during the evening and night. Hail two inches in diameter was reported near Prague, and thunderstorm winds gusted to 70 mph near Kenefic. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

1990 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from eastern Colorado to western Arkansas and northeastern Texas. Severe thunderstorms spawned three tornadoes, and there were eighty-eight reports of large hail or damaging winnds. Evening thunderstorms over central Oklahoma spawned strong tornadoes east of Hinton and east of Binger, produced hail three inches in diameter at Minco, and produced wind gusts to 85 mph at Blanchard. (Storm Data) (The National Weather Summary)

EWR: 96 (1965)
NYC: 95 (1880)
LGA: 94 (2010)
JFK: 91 (2010)



 

Lows:

EWR: 44 (1967)
NYC: 42 (1967)
LGA: 45 (1972)
JFK: 52 (1967)
 

Historical:

 

1771 - A famous Virginia flood occurred as heavy rains in the mountains brought all rivers in the state to record high levels. (Sandra and TI Richard Sanders - 1987)

 

1880: Record maximum temperature for Washington DC. for the date is 96 °F. Boston, MA recorded its highest temperature ever for May of 97 °F.

wow 1880 heat in May even beat 2010....

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2 hours ago, SACRUS said:

 

Happy memorial day and thanks to all who have served or are swrving

 

59 / 47 off a chilly low of 46.  The rut is over.  The 96+ hours of clouds, cool, showers and chill has ended with partly to mostly sunny (staying that) and low to mid 70s.   We'll have a brief reprieve before the next system moves in later tomorrow with another 72 hours of clouds and showers later Tue - Thursday.   Any breaks in the clouds tomorrow will push temps approaching 80 in the warm spots but unlikely as clouds may arrive by mid morning.   0.25 - 0.50 Tue - Thu with most falling Wednesday afternoon / night.   Friday clear our and warm up upper 70s / low 80s.   Trough send next front through this coming Saturday which could see light rain/showers perhaps a storm.   Trough slowly fills out and a much warmer - hot look 6/5 - beyond.   Euro the warmer but GFS also showing a much overall warmer (above normal) in the period and beyond).  Time will tell.

For here this memorial day weekend was one of the coolest cloudiest - saved by brief stretches of sun breaking out Sat and Sun today from a complete cloud out.

GOES19-EUS-02-1000x1000.gif

Tony, the forecasts I have seen show it as being mostly sunny Friday, Saturday and Sunday with temperatures in the upper 70s.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, NYC was able to reach 106° back in 1936 when the weather equipment wasn’t underneath a dense stand of trees which grew up around and over the site. Our last series of summers without marine influence was back in 2010-2013. It’s when Newark to parts of Long Island reached 108° with strong westerly downsloping offshore flow. 

Now that the global background temperatures have jumped much higher than 2010 twice in 15-16 and 23-24, we have been getting onshore summer flow due to the ridge expanding more to the east of New England. While our summers have still been well above average temperatures with record dew points, drought feedback is necessary to set an all-time high in the warm season.

All of our new monthly maximum temperatures have occurred in the winter and fall since 15-16. We set an all-time winter max of 80° in February 2018 which beat the previous record of 76° by 4°. The new all-time October high of 96° back in 2019 beat the old record by 3°. That inky took a brief flash drought which emerged in September. But nothing like the record droughts further back in the past. 

The most extreme summer heatwave in the CONUS since 2020 was in the Pacific Northwest back in 2021. Stations best their all-time summer high by 6°. So if our 108° summer heat back in 2010 was ever exceeded by 6°, then it would be 114°. But there isn’t any present indication in the new much wetter climate with more onshore flow that that type of scenario would be likely anytime soon here. 

This is what I mean by the planet self regulating the heat.  I think the most obvious sign of climate change is not higher maximum temperatures, but a much smaller difference between highs and lows.  The average temperatures can still rise, but we have far fewer record highs in the warm season now and our heatwaves are much shorter.  The record highs are all or mostly in the fall and summer.  It's going to blur the lines between the seasons until eventually we only have two seasons (wet and dry).

 

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9 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Yes the later Sunday maps did show the heat building further eastward and less over the top. But they keep flipping back and forth and first we have to see how the models handle the rain maker next weekend, whether or not it is suppressed and if not how long it sticks around with another cold pool aloft.

WX/PT

the rain maker is going to be Wednesday-Thursday, all the forecasts I have seen show a nice sunny weekend Friday-Saturday-Sunday.

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15 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

Yeah at a certain point there is now where left to put the cars. 
I was just thinking this would be a pretty epic pattern in winter. A nice snow storm Thursday followed by days and days of heavy snow squalls. 

This pattern would NEVER be possible in the winter.

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Very comfortable temperature pattern for this time of year continuing right into early June over the next 10 days. Very familiar over the top warmth into Canada. So the first 90° of the season is running late.


IMG_3677.thumb.png.50f99539f5d60d6cbb3f547a6f267f8a.png
 

IMG_3678.thumb.png.9f1c7f7e6cb5cdde3615fcf298fd3949.png

Honestly these cool overnights could continue through Labor Day and I'd be happy.  Perfect sleeping weather.  Windows open with a blanket or two.  Just perfect. No a/c needed.

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No rain showers here yesterday.  A bit cloudy at times and coolish when the wind blew but not bad.  Sunnier, warmer and less breezy today.

Remembering all those who gave their life for our country this Memorial Day. 

My great uncle Rudolph DeCanio, CPL U.S. Marines, 19yo.  WWII, killed in action on Iwo Jima.

 

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9 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Honestly these cool overnights could continue through Labor Day and I'd be happy.  Perfect sleeping weather.  Windows open with a blanket or two.  Just perfect. No a/c needed.

my ideal weather, 100 during the day and 50 at night, very low humidity and clear blue skies!

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