2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

24 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, it neutralizes. If you start from the most extreme point, it should come toward evening out. Still, ENSO is a powerful factor so I would have thought the +PNA January's would be more extreme. 6/7 were +PNA January's though, and since 1980, 5/5 were +PNA January's. It neutralizes the other side/point. Still, a net neutral signal in January-ENSO is something. Will be interesting to watch and see how this January evolves, I do know that Natural Gas led these Euro weeklies and all this warm stuff for Jan by some time! 

Chuck,

 The strongest Jan +PNAs for +ENSO were these:

1977: +1.8 from +0.5 in Dec

1983: +1.2 from +0.8 in Dec

1987: +1.0 from +1.4 in Dec

1992: +1.3 from +0.5 in Dec

2003: +1.3 from +1.6 in Dec

2010: +1.3 from +0.3 in Dec

2016: +2.0 from +0.8 in Dec

 
 So, avg Dec preceding +1+ +ENSO Jan PNA was +0.8. But avg Jan following +1+ +ENSO Dec PNA was only +0.5 though it was skewed by 1954.

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Chuck,

 The strongest Jan +PNAs for +ENSO were these:

1977: +1.8 from +0.5 in Dec

1983: +1.2 from +0.8 in Dec

1987: +1.0 from +1.4 in Dec

1992: +1.3 from +0.5 in Dec

2003: +1.3 from +1.6 in Dec

2010: +1.3 from +0.3 in Dec

2016: +2.0 from +0.8 in Dec

 
 So, avg Dec preceding +1+ +ENSO Jan PNA was +0.8. But avg Jan following +1+ +ENSO Dec PNA was only +0.5 though it was skewed by 1954.

 

Yeah, look at how there is consistency. This is what I would expect. Usually the Winter pattern sets up in Nov/Dec and persists. In the Pacific the Winter pattern can even set up as early as Sept/Oct. If the atmosphere is Nina-like right now, I don't see why it would be +PNA in Jan, although 7 of the last 7 is like a 1:25 random type of thing. The 384hr ensemble means still have a very strong Aleutian ridge, +300dm in early Jan. It's also showing no signs of letting up, strengthening in anomaly between 372hr - 384hr. Kudos to those who said La Nina effects would happen this Winter. The pattern with a dry STJ and flooding in the NW is actually Moderate/Strong Nina like. 2nd year PDO's, where the PDO didn't correlate year 1 have really high correlation numbers in year 2 for whatever reason.