2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The final strat. warming occurred on April 9th, 13 days earlier than average:

 

@snowman19

Kind of funny how the 2nd highest NAO month in all of record happened during a cold season warm Stratosphere

[jconsor]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Kind of funny how the 2nd highest NAO month in all of record happened during a cold season warm Stratosphere

I agree it's ironic.  I think that mainly has to do with how slow the downward propagation ("drip down") of above normal heights from the stratosphere to the troposphere was this year.

See the attached graphic of polar (65-90N) height anomalies past several months, courtesy of meteorologist Todd Crawford on LinkedIn.  Here's his full post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/todd-crawford-5a02092_the-stratospheric-polar-vortex-spv-had-activity-7447251962808569889--JnW?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAB0F_QB1PGc4wDzKl0eXPl_N7X02RAnqV4 

Looks to me like there is a direct link between the recent increase in polar blocking (starting in early Apr near Scandinavia with a separate area near the Arctic Circle) + the forecast near-record strength Greenland blocking last week of Apr, with the notable stratospheric warming event in late Feb and early Mar.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

OT, but just for awareness.

A- on the outlook...one of my better efforts.

 

[vortex95]

On 5/14/2026 at 9:25 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

CoastalWx *demands* a Weymouth specific fcst!!!  LOL.

[Maxim]

On 2/5/2026 at 10:36 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Its way out, but I cannot see this as being a torch April.

Was going through this thread earlier and happened to stumble upon this, which of course aged like milk. April 2026 was the 7th warmest April on record for Detroit and a torch for many. Wouldn’t even be surprised to see a warmer April next year following what may end up being a non-winter.

[FPizz]

9 hours ago, Maxim said:

Was going through this thread earlier and happened to stumble upon this, which of course aged like milk. April 2026 was the 7th warmest April on record for Detroit and a torch for many. Wouldn’t even be surprised to see a warmer April next year following what may end up being a non-winter.

Now do the 1000s of posts calling for a warm Nov-Feb for the NE.  You probably don't have enough space on this site to post screenshots

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, Maxim said:

Was going through this thread earlier and happened to stumble upon this, which of course aged like milk. April 2026 was the 7th warmest April on record for Detroit and a torch for many. Wouldn’t even be surprised to see a warmer April next year following what may end up being a non-winter.

Wow, I didnt see a torch 2-3 months out after 4 consecutive colder than average months here. Bravo! And I couldnt think of a month I could not care less about for warmth/cold than April. The important months were cold.

Speaking of aging like milk, it will be wonderful to bump this "non winter" post. We dont have "non winters" in the Great Lakes. Mild? sure. Below avg snow? Sure. No winter? Not happening. And if you're banking on a strong Nino mild winter, then calling for a warm April is a big no.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Now do the 1000s of posts calling for a warm Nov-Feb for the NE.  You probably don't have enough space on this site to post screenshots

He would never. Look at his post history, speaks for itself. We used to think he was a former banned troll poster (but hes not) based on many of his posts.

Hasnt posted in over a year (absolutely no surprise he was absent this winter). But heres his week out prediction for January 2025 (a month his hometown Chicago finished -2.6F. Detroit was -2.8F).

On 12/23/2024 at 1:58 PM, Maxim said:

The GEFS does. Going to be a warm month IMO

 

[Maxim]

On 5/27/2026 at 9:42 AM, michsnowfreak said:

He would never. Look at his post history, speaks for itself. We used to think he was a former banned troll poster (but hes not) based on many of his posts.

Hasnt posted in over a year (absolutely no surprise he was absent this winter). But heres his week out prediction for January 2025 (a month his hometown Chicago finished -2.6F. Detroit was -2.8F).

 

A -2.6 F departure against our warmest 30 year average doesn’t even break top 50 coldest Januaries here LMAO. We’ve become so accustomed to the warmer climate we’re in now that what would’ve been considered a completely average, seasonably cold Jan just half a decade ago is now somehow standout cold to some. Also, as I mentioned in the Great Lakes sub forum, I rarely visit this board because it’s overrun with denialism, clueless takes, and the same braindead fools (many who happen to trolls as well) repeating themselves on loop, downplaying every warm up that’s headed their way. Pair that with people who are either unwilling or incapable of engaging with (because their heads are so far removed from reality) and there’s not much worth sticking around for. I’ve got better things to do than sit around and obsess over ho-hum 2-3 day cool shots that eventually get overshadowed by far more impressive heat pulses/ridges later on, or one slightly below average month followed by a several months of above to well above average temps. I’ve come to terms with this new climate, and I’m at peace (unlike many others on here).

Winter never even arrived for the western half of the country, and the Desert Southwest experienced arguably the most extreme temperature event on record, but these people (if you can even call them people) choose to lose their minds over a largely average winter in the East, and an underwhelming first half of May in terms of cold.

[FPizz]

3 minutes ago, Maxim said:

A -2.6 F departure against our warmest 30 year average doesn’t even break top 50 coldest Januaries here LMAO. We’ve become so accustomed to the warmer climate we’re in now that what would’ve been considered a completely average, seasonably cold Jan just half a decade ago is now somehow standout cold to some. Also, as I mentioned in the Great Lakes sub forum, I rarely visit this board because it’s overrun with denialism, clueless takes, and the same braindead fools (many who happen to trolls as well) repeating themselves on loop, downplaying every warm up that’s headed their way. Pair that with people who are either unwilling or incapable of engaging with (because their heads are so far removed from reality) and there’s not much worth sticking around for. I’ve got better things to do than sit around and obsess over ho-hum 2-3 day cool shots that eventually get overshadowed by far more impressive heat pulses/ridges later on, or one slightly below average month followed by a several months of above to well above average temps. I’ve come to terms with this new climate, and I’m at peace (unlike many others on here).

Winter never even arrived for the western half of the country, and the Desert Southwest experienced arguably the most extreme temperature event on record, but these people (if you can even call them people) choose to lose their minds over a largely average winter in the East, and an underwhelming first half of May in terms of cold.

Right over your head, not surprising. The people in here call for warmth and get boned up over it 24/7 and post from the upper mid-west and NE.  That is what nearly every post is about and what people care to talk about.  If you live in a desert, guess what, it is hot and sometimes breaks heat records.  Why does that shock you?  People there still live perfectly fine too, imagine that.  

[LakePaste25]

can do these dumb warm vs cold wars in a banter thread? Seriously if you don’t like someone’s forecast or analysis you’re free to do your own and contribute to this thread. 

[michsnowfreak]

16 hours ago, FPizz said:

Right over your head, not surprising. The people in here call for warmth and get boned up over it 24/7 and post from the upper mid-west and NE.  That is what nearly every post is about and what people care to talk about.  If you live in a desert, guess what, it is hot and sometimes breaks heat records.  Why does that shock you?  People there still live perfectly fine too, imagine that.  

Its adorable when the warm trolls go on their rants and then really get set off like a spoiled child and start with the "denial" garbage lmao. Like you said, everything right over his head. He said warm january and they finished -2.6° so now its "thats not even 50th coldest". Thats how they operate. 

Disappears for a whole year, only to bring up that i said its early but I dont see April being a torch (2+ months out). January finished -5.2° here, so the month simply didnt exist here. It was warm in the west, so people in the frozen Great Lakes region should have been shoveling snow and scraping windshields with absolute fear because it was warm in Phoenix. But then April finished +4.2°, so we can shift focus away from the west finally. Look at his post history and how welcome he is in his own subforum.

Oh and it was an "average" winter in the east. . BTW, Im not usually the one looking at inter-month rankings like his buddy does, but I just looked and realized Jan 15-Feb 9th was the 3rd coldest on record at Detroit this year. Nearly a full month of the climatologically coldest time of the year and it was the 3rd coldest on record. #Normal. 

It will be interesting to see if el nino produces cold pockets in the south/west, will look forward to the daily play by play for a region this forum rarely discussed until 2026.

[TheClimateChanger]

17 hours ago, Maxim said:

A -2.6 F departure against our warmest 30 year average doesn’t even break top 50 coldest Januaries here LMAO. We’ve become so accustomed to the warmer climate we’re in now that what would’ve been considered a completely average, seasonably cold Jan just half a decade ago is now somehow standout cold to some. Also, as I mentioned in the Great Lakes sub forum, I rarely visit this board because it’s overrun with denialism, clueless takes, and the same braindead fools (many who happen to trolls as well) repeating themselves on loop, downplaying every warm up that’s headed their way. Pair that with people who are either unwilling or incapable of engaging with (because their heads are so far removed from reality) and there’s not much worth sticking around for. I’ve got better things to do than sit around and obsess over ho-hum 2-3 day cool shots that eventually get overshadowed by far more impressive heat pulses/ridges later on, or one slightly below average month followed by a several months of above to well above average temps. I’ve come to terms with this new climate, and I’m at peace (unlike many others on here).

Winter never even arrived for the western half of the country, and the Desert Southwest experienced arguably the most extreme temperature event on record, but these people (if you can even call them people) choose to lose their minds over a largely average winter in the East, and an underwhelming first half of May in terms of cold.

Exactly. A -2.6°F January departure against the warmest thirty-year normal on record is not some historic cold event. It does not even crack the top fifty coldest Januaries locally. In the old climate, that would have been a pretty ordinary, seasonably cold January. In today’s climate, people have become so used to warmth that a modestly below-normal month suddenly gets treated like 1977 reincarnated.

That is the broader point they keep missing. Nobody is denying that cold shots happened, or that parts of the Great Lakes had a cool stretch. But it is pretty rich to accuse others of “ignoring the cold” while repeatedly ignoring the much larger and more persistent warm signal. From a historical perspective, it has been very warm year-to-date across much of the Midwest and Great Lakes, and even looking back over the last six months or so, since late November, warmth has easily won the battle.

So yes, talk about the cold when it happens. That is weather. But pretending a ho-hum cold month or a two-to-three-day cool shot cancels out repeated warm pulses, record ridging, and months of above to well-above normal temperatures is not weather enthusiasm. It is selective accounting.

 

[michsnowfreak]

Lmao. Once again. Over their heads. No one argued that the -2.6° in chicago in Jan 2025 was record cold. It was brought up because maxim said it would be a WARM month days before the months began. 

Jan 2026 had impressive cold. It was -5.2° at Detroit and both December and January were solidly colder than avg for even the coldest 30 year normals in the period of record. Jan was -4.4 compared to the entire POR and Dec -2.1 to the entire POR. But thats "seasonal" and "normal". It was such a cold winter in the east that the trolls either disappeared or completely fixated on the west. Thats when you know it WAS cold.

Jan 15-Feb 9 was 3rd coldest on record for Detroit (I usually dont post intra month data sets like that but hey, they do all the time when it's warm!). And thats already the coldest time of the year. 

The warmth of march/April was discussed but apparently not enough for the liking of some which is what started a tantrum because its not discussed enough.

[MJO812]

21 hours ago, Maxim said:

A -2.6 F departure against our warmest 30 year average doesn’t even break top 50 coldest Januaries here LMAO. We’ve become so accustomed to the warmer climate we’re in now that what would’ve been considered a completely average, seasonably cold Jan just half a decade ago is now somehow standout cold to some. Also, as I mentioned in the Great Lakes sub forum, I rarely visit this board because it’s overrun with denialism, clueless takes, and the same braindead fools (many who happen to trolls as well) repeating themselves on loop, downplaying every warm up that’s headed their way. Pair that with people who are either unwilling or incapable of engaging with (because their heads are so far removed from reality) and there’s not much worth sticking around for. I’ve got better things to do than sit around and obsess over ho-hum 2-3 day cool shots that eventually get overshadowed by far more impressive heat pulses/ridges later on, or one slightly below average month followed by a several months of above to well above average temps. I’ve come to terms with this new climate, and I’m at peace (unlike many others on here).

Winter never even arrived for the western half of the country, and the Desert Southwest experienced arguably the most extreme temperature event on record, but these people (if you can even call them people) choose to lose their minds over a largely average winter in the East, and an underwhelming first half of May in terms of cold.

Average winter in the east ? Maybe in the south but not the northeast. 

I had my coldest and snowiest winter here in NYC in a decade. Close to 50 inches of snow with a long lasting snowpack and cold temps. 

[MJO812]

22 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lmao. Once again. Over their heads. No one argued that the -2.6° in chicago in Jan 2025 was record cold. It was brought up because maxim said it would be a WARM month days before the months began. 

Jan 2026 had impressive cold. It was -5.2° at Detroit and both December and January were solidly colder than avg for even the coldest 30 year normals in the period of record. Jan was -4.4 compared to the entire POR and Dec -2.1 to the entire POR. But thats "seasonal" and "normal". It was such a cold winter in the east that the trolls either disappeared or completely fixated on the west. Thats when you know it WAS cold.

Jan 15-Feb 9 was 3rd coldest on record for Detroit (I usually dont post intra month data sets like that but hey, they do all the time when it's warm!). And thats already the coldest time of the year. 

The warmth of march/April was discussed but apparently not enough for the liking of some which is what started a tantrum because its not discussed enough.

Its like a broken record. All the warmth was in the west this past winter. It did spread east in March. 

I dont know how anyone can say that the winter in the east wasn't cold.