2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The final strat. warming occurred on April 9th, 13 days earlier than average:

 

@snowman19

Kind of funny how the 2nd highest NAO month in all of record happened during a cold season warm Stratosphere

[jconsor]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Kind of funny how the 2nd highest NAO month in all of record happened during a cold season warm Stratosphere

I agree it's ironic.  I think that mainly has to do with how slow the downward propagation ("drip down") of above normal heights from the stratosphere to the troposphere was this year.

See the attached graphic of polar (65-90N) height anomalies past several months, courtesy of meteorologist Todd Crawford on LinkedIn.  Here's his full post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/todd-crawford-5a02092_the-stratospheric-polar-vortex-spv-had-activity-7447251962808569889--JnW?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAB0F_QB1PGc4wDzKl0eXPl_N7X02RAnqV4 

Looks to me like there is a direct link between the recent increase in polar blocking (starting in early Apr near Scandinavia with a separate area near the Arctic Circle) + the forecast near-record strength Greenland blocking last week of Apr, with the notable stratospheric warming event in late Feb and early Mar.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

OT, but just for awareness.

A- on the outlook...one of my better efforts.

 

[vortex95]

On 5/14/2026 at 9:25 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

CoastalWx *demands* a Weymouth specific fcst!!!  LOL.

[Maxim]

On 2/5/2026 at 10:36 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Its way out, but I cannot see this as being a torch April.

Was going through this thread earlier and happened to stumble upon this, which of course aged like milk. April 2026 was the 7th warmest April on record for Detroit and a torch for many. Wouldn’t even be surprised to see a warmer April next year following what may end up being a non-winter.

[FPizz]

9 hours ago, Maxim said:

Was going through this thread earlier and happened to stumble upon this, which of course aged like milk. April 2026 was the 7th warmest April on record for Detroit and a torch for many. Wouldn’t even be surprised to see a warmer April next year following what may end up being a non-winter.

Now do the 1000s of posts calling for a warm Nov-Feb for the NE.  You probably don't have enough space on this site to post screenshots

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, Maxim said:

Was going through this thread earlier and happened to stumble upon this, which of course aged like milk. April 2026 was the 7th warmest April on record for Detroit and a torch for many. Wouldn’t even be surprised to see a warmer April next year following what may end up being a non-winter.

Wow, I didnt see a torch 2-3 months out after 4 consecutive colder than average months here. Bravo! And I couldnt think of a month I could not care less about for warmth/cold than April. The important months were cold.

Speaking of aging like milk, it will be wonderful to bump this "non winter" post. We dont have "non winters" in the Great Lakes. Mild? sure. Below avg snow? Sure. No winter? Not happening. And if you're banking on a strong Nino mild winter, then calling for a warm April is a big no.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Now do the 1000s of posts calling for a warm Nov-Feb for the NE.  You probably don't have enough space on this site to post screenshots

He would never. Look at his post history, speaks for itself. We used to think he was a former banned troll poster (but hes not) based on many of his posts.

Hasnt posted in over a year (absolutely no surprise he was absent this winter). But heres his week out prediction for January 2025 (a month his hometown Chicago finished -2.6F. Detroit was -2.8F).

On 12/23/2024 at 1:58 PM, Maxim said:

The GEFS does. Going to be a warm month IMO

 

[Maxim]

On 5/27/2026 at 9:42 AM, michsnowfreak said:

He would never. Look at his post history, speaks for itself. We used to think he was a former banned troll poster (but hes not) based on many of his posts.

Hasnt posted in over a year (absolutely no surprise he was absent this winter). But heres his week out prediction for January 2025 (a month his hometown Chicago finished -2.6F. Detroit was -2.8F).

 

A -2.6 F departure against our warmest 30 year average doesn’t even break top 50 coldest Januaries here LMAO. We’ve become so accustomed to the warmer climate we’re in now that what would’ve been considered a completely average, seasonably cold Jan just half a decade ago is now somehow standout cold to some. Also, as I mentioned in the Great Lakes sub forum, I rarely visit this board because it’s overrun with denialism, clueless takes, and the same braindead fools (many who happen to trolls as well) repeating themselves on loop, downplaying every warm up that’s headed their way. Pair that with people who are either unwilling or incapable of engaging with (because their heads are so far removed from reality) and there’s not much worth sticking around for. I’ve got better things to do than sit around and obsess over ho-hum 2-3 day cool shots that eventually get overshadowed by far more impressive heat pulses/ridges later on, or one slightly below average month followed by a several months of above to well above average temps. I’ve come to terms with this new climate, and I’m at peace (unlike many others on here).

Winter never even arrived for the western half of the country, and the Desert Southwest experienced arguably the most extreme temperature event on record, but these people (if you can even call them people) choose to lose their minds over a largely average winter in the East, and an underwhelming first half of May in terms of cold.

[FPizz]

3 minutes ago, Maxim said:

A -2.6 F departure against our warmest 30 year average doesn’t even break top 50 coldest Januaries here LMAO. We’ve become so accustomed to the warmer climate we’re in now that what would’ve been considered a completely average, seasonably cold Jan just half a decade ago is now somehow standout cold to some. Also, as I mentioned in the Great Lakes sub forum, I rarely visit this board because it’s overrun with denialism, clueless takes, and the same braindead fools (many who happen to trolls as well) repeating themselves on loop, downplaying every warm up that’s headed their way. Pair that with people who are either unwilling or incapable of engaging with (because their heads are so far removed from reality) and there’s not much worth sticking around for. I’ve got better things to do than sit around and obsess over ho-hum 2-3 day cool shots that eventually get overshadowed by far more impressive heat pulses/ridges later on, or one slightly below average month followed by a several months of above to well above average temps. I’ve come to terms with this new climate, and I’m at peace (unlike many others on here).

Winter never even arrived for the western half of the country, and the Desert Southwest experienced arguably the most extreme temperature event on record, but these people (if you can even call them people) choose to lose their minds over a largely average winter in the East, and an underwhelming first half of May in terms of cold.

Right over your head, not surprising. The people in here call for warmth and get boned up over it 24/7 and post from the upper mid-west and NE.  That is what nearly every post is about and what people care to talk about.  If you live in a desert, guess what, it is hot and sometimes breaks heat records.  Why does that shock you?  People there still live perfectly fine too, imagine that.  

[LakePaste25]

can do these dumb warm vs cold wars in a banter thread? Seriously if you don’t like someone’s forecast or analysis you’re free to do your own and contribute to this thread.