2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The final strat. warming occurred on April 9th, 13 days earlier than average:

 

@snowman19

Kind of funny how the 2nd highest NAO month in all of record happened during a cold season warm Stratosphere

[jconsor]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Kind of funny how the 2nd highest NAO month in all of record happened during a cold season warm Stratosphere

I agree it's ironic.  I think that mainly has to do with how slow the downward propagation ("drip down") of above normal heights from the stratosphere to the troposphere was this year.

See the attached graphic of polar (65-90N) height anomalies past several months, courtesy of meteorologist Todd Crawford on LinkedIn.  Here's his full post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/todd-crawford-5a02092_the-stratospheric-polar-vortex-spv-had-activity-7447251962808569889--JnW?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAB0F_QB1PGc4wDzKl0eXPl_N7X02RAnqV4 

Looks to me like there is a direct link between the recent increase in polar blocking (starting in early Apr near Scandinavia with a separate area near the Arctic Circle) + the forecast near-record strength Greenland blocking last week of Apr, with the notable stratospheric warming event in late Feb and early Mar.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

OT, but just for awareness.

A- on the outlook...one of my better efforts.

 

[vortex95]

On 5/14/2026 at 9:25 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

CoastalWx *demands* a Weymouth specific fcst!!!  LOL.

[Maxim]

On 2/5/2026 at 10:36 AM, michsnowfreak said:

Its way out, but I cannot see this as being a torch April.

Was going through this thread earlier and happened to stumble upon this, which of course aged like milk. April 2026 was the 7th warmest April on record for Detroit and a torch for many. Wouldn’t even be surprised to see a warmer April next year following what may end up being a non-winter.

[FPizz]

9 hours ago, Maxim said:

Was going through this thread earlier and happened to stumble upon this, which of course aged like milk. April 2026 was the 7th warmest April on record for Detroit and a torch for many. Wouldn’t even be surprised to see a warmer April next year following what may end up being a non-winter.

Now do the 1000s of posts calling for a warm Nov-Feb for the NE.  You probably don't have enough space on this site to post screenshots

[michsnowfreak]

11 hours ago, Maxim said:

Was going through this thread earlier and happened to stumble upon this, which of course aged like milk. April 2026 was the 7th warmest April on record for Detroit and a torch for many. Wouldn’t even be surprised to see a warmer April next year following what may end up being a non-winter.

Wow, I didnt see a torch 2-3 months out after 4 consecutive colder than average months here. Bravo! And I couldnt think of a month I could not care less about for warmth/cold than April. The important months were cold.

Speaking of aging like milk, it will be wonderful to bump this "non winter" post. We dont have "non winters" in the Great Lakes. Mild? sure. Below avg snow? Sure. No winter? Not happening. And if you're banking on a strong Nino mild winter, then calling for a warm April is a big no.

[michsnowfreak]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Now do the 1000s of posts calling for a warm Nov-Feb for the NE.  You probably don't have enough space on this site to post screenshots

He would never. Look at his post history, speaks for itself. We used to think he was a former banned troll poster (but hes not) based on many of his posts.

Hasnt posted in over a year (absolutely no surprise he was absent this winter). But heres his week out prediction for January 2025 (a month his hometown Chicago finished -2.6F. Detroit was -2.8F).

On 12/23/2024 at 1:58 PM, Maxim said:

The GEFS does. Going to be a warm month IMO