2025-2026 ENSO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

12 hours ago, GaWx said:

 The final strat. warming occurred on April 9th, 13 days earlier than average:

 

@snowman19

Kind of funny how the 2nd highest NAO month in all of record happened during a cold season warm Stratosphere

[jconsor]

15 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Kind of funny how the 2nd highest NAO month in all of record happened during a cold season warm Stratosphere

I agree it's ironic.  I think that mainly has to do with how slow the downward propagation ("drip down") of above normal heights from the stratosphere to the troposphere was this year.

See the attached graphic of polar (65-90N) height anomalies past several months, courtesy of meteorologist Todd Crawford on LinkedIn.  Here's his full post: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/todd-crawford-5a02092_the-stratospheric-polar-vortex-spv-had-activity-7447251962808569889--JnW?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop&rcm=ACoAAAB0F_QB1PGc4wDzKl0eXPl_N7X02RAnqV4 

Looks to me like there is a direct link between the recent increase in polar blocking (starting in early Apr near Scandinavia with a separate area near the Arctic Circle) + the forecast near-record strength Greenland blocking last week of Apr, with the notable stratospheric warming event in late Feb and early Mar.
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

OT, but just for awareness.

A- on the outlook...one of my better efforts.