MJO812 Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 This was a fail. That's why long range forecasts shouldn't be taken seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 26 Share Posted March 26 41 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This was a fail. That's why long range forecasts shouldn't be taken seriously. Anthony, I wouldn’t say that because the DJF AO was the most negative since 2020-1 with ~-1 averaged out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 On 1/17/2026 at 6:19 PM, snowman19 said: @donsutherland1 In a shocking turn of events….the WWB isn’t as strong as it was hyped to be: On 1/17/2026 at 8:24 PM, snowman19 said: ^To add to this, after all the nonstop hype and bombastic posts on twitter from a few people (some pro mets) about a record-breaking very strong WWB coming….they have some explaining to do, now that the actual WWB strength is going to be nowhere near as close to what they were predicting…guaranteeing really…. On 1/17/2026 at 8:33 PM, donsutherland1 said: Yes. I agree. We'll see if they ever acknowledge it. How many times within a short period of time is Eric Webb going to Tweet essentially the same thing regarding his feeling about a near certain super Nino being jump started by a very strong WWB? Does anyone recall when he kept Tweeting over and over about a near record strong WWB occurring in late Jan that never occurred? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 29 minutes ago, GaWx said: How many times within a short period of time is Eric Webb going to Tweet essentially the same thing regarding his feeling about a near certain super Nino being jump started by a very strong WWB? Does anyone recall when he kept Tweeting over and over about a near record strong WWB occurring in Feb. that never occurred? At this time, especially with the seasonal transition underway, one has to be cautious about such events given model skill limitations. The "spring ENSO barrier" in prediction remains real. By early summer, the picture should be clearer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 hour ago, GaWx said: How many times within a short period of time is Eric Webb going to Tweet essentially the same thing regarding his feeling about a near certain super Nino being jump started by a very strong WWB? Does anyone recall when he kept Tweeting over and over about a near record strong WWB occurring in Feb. that never occurred? There were some pretty bad posts during this past winter. Sometimes you just have to be patient and see what happens. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 On 3/18/2026 at 8:15 PM, GaWx said: Anthony, today’s NAO forecast is consistent with yesterday’s (bad/+): Yesterday’s GEFS: Today’s GEFS: This was a fail. Those earlier predictions of going negative was wrong. This put an end to any winter threats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 ^ Stratosphere warming really busted with lagged -NAO probability.. for the 2nd year in a row in March. The November one worked though 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 27 Share Posted March 27 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: ^ Stratosphere warming really busted with lagged -NAO probability.. for the 2nd year in a row in March. The November one worked though Defintely That was the wildcard this month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 28 Share Posted March 28 Hey @Stormchaserchuck1any thoughts about this? Fairbanks is progged to have its coldest DJFM on record with it ~-13.1F! The current coldest DJFM: 1965-6: -12.9F El Niño 1970-1: -11.6F La Niña 1933-4: -11.1F La Niña 1917-8: -10.6F La Niña By a margin of 2F, they’re progged to have their coldest March on record at ~-8.6F! Link to data that allowed me to calculate this out: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=afg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 ^I've been surprised how cold Alaska has been this Winter relative to the 500mb pattern there. There hasn't been a lot of strong +EPO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted March 29 Share Posted March 29 On 3/18/2026 at 9:44 AM, GaWx said: Today’s MJO forecasts still are all in phases 7 and 8, the coldest in Baltimore (as rep. city) in March on average following La Niña winters: @EastonSN+ Followup: Look how far-off the quoted 3/18 MJO progs are verifying! They had it in phase 7 3/24-29 headed to phase 8 vs the reality of them then already being in phase 8 headed toward phase 1: @EastonSN+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakePaste25 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 Crank up those lawnmowers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 The +NAO that we are seeing in early April is about as strong as it gets. This is after a significantly positive March ENSEMBLE LOOP The 0z EPS was super warm April 9-13 Be happy we didn't get that pattern in the middle of Winter. The same thing happened last Summer where we had like 6 consecutive months of -pna/+nao/+ao. A lot of +NAO in the last 14 months that wasn't mid-Winter 25-26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 30 Author Share Posted March 30 9 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: The +NAO that we are seeing in early April is about as strong as it gets. This is after a significantly positive March ENSEMBLE LOOP The 0z EPS was super warm April 9-13 Be happy we didn't get that pattern in the middle of Winter. The same thing happened last Summer where we had like 6 consecutive months of -pna/+nao/+ao. A lot of +NAO in the last 14 months that wasn't mid-Winter 25-26. I think the strong -QBO/high solar/modest La Niña combo wast timed just right for the past winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think the strong -QBO/high solar/modest La Niña combo wast timed just right for the past winter. That -WPO Fall loading pattern in SSTA really hit, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortex95 Posted March 30 Share Posted March 30 On 3/26/2026 at 4:38 PM, MJO812 said: This was a fail. That's why long range forecasts shouldn't be taken seriously. The big problem is these days, there is no accountability for such forecasts, and those that make them will do everything to gaslight to tel you their forecast actually did verify or there is significant skill. I find this disingenuous and unethical. That doesn't mean LR forecasting should not be done or researched, but it is the classic "putting the wagon in front of the horse" here. Also, when you post on social media and want to be taken seriously, one should avoid levity, "flowery" language, and showing implied bias such as the post above ("who's excited for winter"). That is not being objective and scientific. Excited or not is irrelevant to the actual forecast and its skill! On moderated groups like here where it is wx weenies and the like, levity and implied bias are ok b/c we implicitly understand how things are for wx and forecasting and are a niche group, What we post is not meant for public "consumption" b/c they have no clue as to the nuances and idiosyncrasies of the profession, among other things! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted Thursday at 10:48 PM Author Share Posted Thursday at 10:48 PM 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: March forecast review: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2026/04/march-warmer-than-forecast.html Not a bad effort for the month of March overall, but it ended up much warmer than forecast on a national level due to the failure of high latitude blocking to materialize following the split of the polar vortex, which was a forecast risk that was communicated last fall. Locally here in southern New England it was anywhere from 2 to 4*F warmer than normal, as opposed to the forecast of -2 to near normal. Seasonal recap incoming in May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted Sunday at 02:01 AM Share Posted Sunday at 02:01 AM On 3/22/2026 at 5:49 PM, GaWx said: The March ‘26 NAO is easily headed to a record high for March (back to 1950). The current record is +1.85 (1989). Based on actual dailies March 1-22 and GEFS progs for March 23-31, I believe that the range of possibilities is +2.4 to +3.4. Remember to multiply the dailies by 2 to estimate the monthlies. The highest of any month is Nov of 1992’s +2.63. That is likely to be exceeded (75% chance as of now). Monthly NAO: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Edit: Somehow I missed that Nov ‘78’s was +3.04, the highest on record. Nov ‘92’s +2.63 was next highest. -March ‘26’s NAO came in at +2.69, obliterating as expected the old March record of +1.85 from 1969. -This +2.69 is the new 2nd highest on record with only Nov ‘78’s +3.04 higher for any month since 1950. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table @Stormchaserchuck1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Sunday at 12:28 PM Share Posted Sunday at 12:28 PM 10 hours ago, GaWx said: -March ‘26’s NAO came in at +2.69, obliterating as expected the old March record of +1.85 from 1969. -This +2.69 is the new 2nd highest on record with only Nov ‘78’s +3.04 higher for any month since 1950. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table @Stormchaserchuck1 The SW, US heat ridge, spreading east through the Midwest, Tenn valley, and Mid Atlantic makes more sense! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted Sunday at 01:20 PM Share Posted Sunday at 01:20 PM 11 hours ago, GaWx said: -March ‘26’s NAO came in at +2.69, obliterating as expected the old March record of +1.85 from 1969. -This +2.69 is the new 2nd highest on record with only Nov ‘78’s +3.04 higher for any month since 1950. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table @Stormchaserchuck1 Previous most extreme for March was -2.47 in 1962 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Looked at the final rankings of 2025-26 for Detroit: SNOWFALL- 39.5” 74 snowier, 71 less snowy SNOWCOVER (1”+)- 63 days 27 had more, 1 had same, 86 had less TEMP- 25.3F 43 colder, 2 same, 107 warmer ****** I notice theres been so much concentration on the west and the small cold pool, that I didnt really see any rankings for nyc. I have to say, they are impressive considering some recent thoughts theyd never get winter again. SNOWFALL- 43.4” 29 snowier, 128 less snowy SNOWCOVER (1”+)- 43 days 16 had more, 97 had less TEMP- 31.9F 42 colder, 2 same, 113 warmer (since note- this is the 1st time NYC had more snowfall than Detroit since 2015 and just the 2nd time in 20 years. While its not fair to rank two different climates, the snowcover at Detroit would be 4th highest on record for NYC and the temp coldest on record). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
beavis1729 Posted 27 minutes ago Share Posted 27 minutes ago On 3/29/2026 at 7:24 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: ^I've been surprised how cold Alaska has been this Winter relative to the 500mb pattern there. There hasn't been a lot of strong +EPO. This is a great write-up on the record cold March 2026 in much of Alaska. Coldest March on record in Fairbanks, with an average temp of -9.0F. That's 19.6F below normal, the most negative departure of any month since February 1990. 2025-26 was also a very cold winter in Fairbanks; the first time in history where the temp didn't get above 32F during the entire Nov-Mar period. https://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2026/04/march-record-cold.html https://alaskaclimate.substack.com/p/record-setting-cold-march-in-alaska Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted 23 minutes ago Share Posted 23 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, beavis1729 said: This is a great write-up on the record cold March 2026 in much of Alaska. Coldest March on record in Fairbanks, with an average temp of -9.0F. That's 19.6F below normal, the most negative departure of any month since February 1990. 2025-26 was also a very cold winter in Fairbanks; the first time in history where the temp didn't get above 32F during the entire Nov-Mar period. https://ak-wx.blogspot.com/2026/04/march-record-cold.html https://alaskaclimate.substack.com/p/record-setting-cold-march-in-alaska Not too often you have a cold winter in Alaska and the eastern lower 48. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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