2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, cmillzz said:

Yeah, you can def see the emergence of a much warmer pattern towards the end of the ensembles. Quite a strong signal already, so I’m sure there’s some truth to it.

 

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Definitely 

Its coming but towards April

After the one cold week (3/16-22), which is still coming, an AN signal emerges like it has on prior runs in most of the E US although the NE still has just a neutral signal in today’s EW:

3/16-22: nice

 

 

3/23-29: nice (from my standpoint) is over 

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

After the one cold week (3/16-22), which is still coming, an AN signal emerges like it has on prior runs in most of the E US although the NE still has just a neutral signal in today’s EW:

3/16-22: nice

 

 

3/23-29: nice (from my standpoint) is over 

 

Cpc

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

After the transient St. Patrick’s week cooldown, the ensembles are showing a big warmup coming again around the Equinox. If this is correct and the WPO goes positive along with a positive EPO, a big warmup is coming around the Equinox. There is nothing to stop it either….there’s going to be a raging +NAO and a +AO
 

I wouldnt necessarily call it a transient "cool down". Transient yes, but there look to be some significant cold departures during it.

[cmillzz]

EPS has been exhibiting a rather pronounced cold bias at times in the medium range. Have a feeling it’s getting too carried away with the troughing again

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

EPS has been exhibiting a rather pronounced cold bias at times in the medium range. Have a feeling it’s getting too carried away with the troughing again

Overall this winter for the H5 pattern, I’ve seen it missing strongly at times in both directions. Now if we’re talking 2m temperatures, WxBell maps are cold biased.

[michsnowfreak]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Overall this winter for the H5 pattern, I’ve seen it missing strongly at times in both directions. Now if we’re talking 2m temperatures, WxBell maps are cold biased.

Yes. If anything, I've seen time and time again this winter modeled warmups or cold breaking down get muted once it gets closer in time from Michigan eastward. The warm west/cold east pattern has dominated since November, so will be interesting to see if its more of the same in late March.

 

Regarding the cold shots, euro and gem continue to be much colder then the gfs.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, cmillzz said:

EPS has been exhibiting a rather pronounced cold bias at times in the medium range. Have a feeling it’s getting too carried away with the troughing again

Gfs is getting colder in the mid range like the Euro. 

[cmillzz]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is getting colder in the mid range like the Euro. 

might see a blizzard on the 4th of July

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

might see a blizzard on the 4th of July

Keep denying the colder trend. This has been happening all winter. Soon or later the warmth will win out but not now.

[GaWx]

On 3/6/2026 at 6:35 PM, MJO812 said:

Keep denying the colder trend. This has been happening all winter. Soon or later the warmth will win out but not now.

 After a cold March 12th-13th and then a couple of days of mild, the EW are still showing ~7-8 days of BN dominant cold in the E US that ends ~Mar 23rd. After that, in the NE they show back and forth averaging NN into early April.

[cmillzz]

On 2/22/2026 at 4:28 PM, GaWx said:

Hey Anthony,

 Congrats on your blizzard!

 I’d love it and JB has been going cold til after Easter after a warmup Mar 5-15. But unfortunately the Euro Weeklies are overall not cold looking for most after the upcoming week. Then again, look how much colder the upcoming week will be vs what the Weeklies had just 6 days ago for 2/23-3/1:

 

Now look at it today (similar to last few days):

and week 2 (3/2-8) has cooled a good bit especially in the NE:

From 6 days ago:

Compare that to today:

 So, based on the big changes for weeks 1-2 in the East, keep hope alive!

 

Ended up being a horrible bust like I thought (the week 2 cooling thing), and likely will be again, at least to an extent.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

On 3/6/2026 at 6:30 PM, cmillzz said:

might see a blizzard on the 4th of July

You might have to go to the Southern Hemisphere for it, lol.

[cmillzz]

On 3/6/2026 at 5:35 PM, MJO812 said:

Keep denying the colder trend. This has been happening all winter. Soon or later the warmth will win out but not now.

I had a +4.3 departure in Feb and will finish with one of the warmest first 10 days of March btw, so hardly much of a "colder trend" as of recent. Matter of fact, it's in the 60s with full sun here as I type this and will be nearing 70 Monday/Tuesday, lmao.

[GaWx]

Today’s MJO forecasts:

GEFS 
 

EPS:

@EastonSN+

[snowman19]

Transient 316-3/20 cooldown, then a massive warm surge across the entire CONUS moves in right after the Equinox
 

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Transient 316-3/20 cooldown, then a massive warm surge across the entire CONUS moves in right after the Equinox
 

Looks like it 

The warmth will finally be winning out. First time all winter. Not shocking since its near spring. 

[GaWx]

42 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Transient 316-3/20 cooldown, then a massive warm surge across the entire CONUS moves in right around the Equinox
 

 IF this occurs, we’d be looking at the realistic possibility for the 2nd warmest March on record in places like Atlanta. Currently, their warmest on record is the 64.5F of 2012. That appears out of reach. However, their 2nd warmest is the 61.8 of 1945.
 

 As it is now, a record warmest first 1/2 of March near 64.5 is looking likely there assuming I haven’t missed any warmer ones. But then it’s looking to cool down significantly to ~50 for 3/16-22. That would bring the MTD down to ~60 as of March 22. Then March 23-31 would need to average 66.2 to get the full March average to 61.8. That’s ~8 AN for 3/23-31. I suppose there’d be a chance for it to be that warm although that’s 2-3 weeks away, too far to be able to predict.

[cmillzz]

Chicago has a shot at yet another top 10 warmest March if what Ben Noll is showing ends up transpiring (which I don’t see why it wouldn’t tbh).

[michsnowfreak]

5 hours ago, GaWx said:

 IF this occurs, we’d be looking at the realistic possibility for the 2nd warmest March on record in places like Atlanta. Currently, their warmest on record is the 64.5F of 2012. That appears out of reach. However, their 2nd warmest is the 61.8 of 1945.
 

 As it is now, a record warmest first 1/2 of March near 64.5 is looking likely there assuming I haven’t missed any warmer ones. But then it’s looking to cool down significantly to ~50 for 3/16-22. That would bring the MTD down to ~60 as of March 22. Then March 23-31 would need to average 66.2 to get the full March average to 61.8. That’s ~8 AN for 3/23-31. I suppose there’d be a chance for it to be that warm although that’s 2-3 weeks away, too far to be able to predict.

Once again. I have no doubt warmth will eventually spread further north and east. Especially as our snow is gone, ice is breaking up on the lakes and the ground is thawing. But none of the ensembles show massive warmth engulfing the lakes into new England right after March 20th. 

[JACKASS]

7 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Looks like it 

The warmth will finally be winning out. First time all winter. Not shocking since its near spring. 

You need to read your own past posts, even just a few days ago!

Clown!!

[MJO812]

Just now, JACKASS said:

You need to read your own past posts, even just a few days ago!

Clown!!

Your name fits you well 

I guess you haven't  been here since December and read all his posts. Its cute that you keep sticking up for him.

[JACKASS]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Your name fits you well 

Care to prove me wrong?

[MJO812]

Just now, JACKASS said:

Care to prove me wrong?

The models looked colder than what they are showing now.  I admit that they will be wrong in a long duration cold pattern. I will never rule out snow until April though.

Is that good jackass?

[JACKASS]

7 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The models looked colder than what they are showing now.  I admit that they will be wrong in a long duration cold pattern. I will never rule out snow until April though.

Is that good jackass?

So... fail.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

The models looked colder than what they are showing now.  I admit that they will be wrong in a long duration cold pattern. I will never rule out snow until April though.

Is that good jackass?

 

1 hour ago, JACKASS said:

So... fail.

 Contributing to the problem of models looking colder further out in time is that WxBell Euro 2m Euro Weeklies maps are too cold, something I’ve emphasized in many posts. I know that @donsutherland1and Anthony are, among others, fully aware of this issue.
 

 How do I know they’re too cold? I’ve on many occasions compared the WB maps to the in-house ecmwf maps, especially in later weeks as the WB cold errors grow. The WB maps are essentially always colder and often by a significant amount in later weeks. Has anyone ever wondered why the NE US and much of W US are just about always below normal on WB during later weeks of the Weeklies? So, as the periods get closer, the WB maps more often than not warm up as the magnitude of the cold errors reduces.