2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, cmillzz said:

Yeah, you can def see the emergence of a much warmer pattern towards the end of the ensembles. Quite a strong signal already, so I’m sure there’s some truth to it.

 

59 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Definitely 

Its coming but towards April

After the one cold week (3/16-22), which is still coming, an AN signal emerges like it has on prior runs in most of the E US although the NE still has just a neutral signal in today’s EW:

3/16-22: nice

 

 

3/23-29: nice (from my standpoint) is over 

 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 

After the one cold week (3/16-22), which is still coming, an AN signal emerges like it has on prior runs in most of the E US although the NE still has just a neutral signal in today’s EW:

3/16-22: nice

 

 

3/23-29: nice (from my standpoint) is over 

 

Cpc

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

After the transient St. Patrick’s week cooldown, the ensembles are showing a big warmup coming again around the Equinox. If this is correct and the WPO goes positive along with a positive EPO, a big warmup is coming around the Equinox. There is nothing to stop it either….there’s going to be a raging +NAO and a +AO
 

I wouldnt necessarily call it a transient "cool down". Transient yes, but there look to be some significant cold departures during it.

[cmillzz]

EPS has been exhibiting a rather pronounced cold bias at times in the medium range. Have a feeling it’s getting too carried away with the troughing again

[GaWx]

20 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

EPS has been exhibiting a rather pronounced cold bias at times in the medium range. Have a feeling it’s getting too carried away with the troughing again

Overall this winter for the H5 pattern, I’ve seen it missing strongly at times in both directions. Now if we’re talking 2m temperatures, WxBell maps are cold biased.

[michsnowfreak]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Overall this winter for the H5 pattern, I’ve seen it missing strongly at times in both directions. Now if we’re talking 2m temperatures, WxBell maps are cold biased.

Yes. If anything, I've seen time and time again this winter modeled warmups or cold breaking down get muted once it gets closer in time from Michigan eastward. The warm west/cold east pattern has dominated since November, so will be interesting to see if its more of the same in late March.

 

Regarding the cold shots, euro and gem continue to be much colder then the gfs.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, cmillzz said:

EPS has been exhibiting a rather pronounced cold bias at times in the medium range. Have a feeling it’s getting too carried away with the troughing again

Gfs is getting colder in the mid range like the Euro. 

[cmillzz]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs is getting colder in the mid range like the Euro. 

might see a blizzard on the 4th of July

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, cmillzz said:

might see a blizzard on the 4th of July

Keep denying the colder trend. This has been happening all winter. Soon or later the warmth will win out but not now.

[GaWx]

On 3/6/2026 at 6:35 PM, MJO812 said:

Keep denying the colder trend. This has been happening all winter. Soon or later the warmth will win out but not now.

 After a cold March 12th-13th and then a couple of days of mild, the EW are still showing ~7-8 days of BN dominant cold in the E US that ends ~Mar 23rd. After that, they show back and forth averaging NN into early April.