2025-2026 ENSO

[brooklynwx99]

can also see the jet beginning to extend in the LR as another MJO wave traverses the MC along with strengthening +EAMT... as this wave enters the WHEM in mid-late Jan, we might have another favorable period

[TheClimateChanger]

For all the bashing of the models, this looks like an incredibly accurate forecast from the Euro AI for the current period.

 

[Terpeast]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol this is an absurd shift

Once that trough axis moves to just west of us, crazy things can start to happen... watch out for some trackable events then.

[TheClimateChanger]

Whoa. What is going on in Pennsylvania and New York on Friday? 

[GaWx]

 Natural gas is now up 10% due to the models’ much colder late Dec and now early Jan vs what last week’s models showed! If this holds, it would easily be the strongest single day since at least August. Keep in mind that NG’s strongest days are usually when the E US two week forecast is looking colder than the prior day:

Natural Gas (NGF6)

 

 

Real-time derived

Currency in USD

 

4.376

+0.411(+10.37%)

 

Real-time Data·13:51:34

[Stormchaserchuck1]

We are getting a 5850dm block between England and Iceland in a few days.. a +600dm anomaly. This will be the 2nd +600dm anomaly in a few days, as we just had one over the Aleutian islands. 

It's an east-based -NAO. See how the late November Stratosphere warming correlates to -NAO in about +30-35 days?? I went all the way back to 1948 and found that pattern with a different lag time at different times of the cold season. But this is a major hit. Models didn't pick it up until the last few days.. it will be interesting to see if it's a common bias if an early Winter Stratosphere warming happens again in the next few years. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, GaWx said:

 NG is now up 10% due to the models’ much colder late Dec and now early Jan vs what last week’s models showed! If this holds, it would easily be the strongest single day since at least August:

Natural Gas (NGF6)

 

 

Real-time derived

Currency in USD

 

4.376

+0.411(+10.37%)

 

Real-time Data·13:51:34

Yeah everything bought into the warm pattern real quick as NG was forecasting the pattern to basically last all Winter. It's not a wall-to-wall torch pattern this Winter, imo. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

40 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Whoa. What is going on in Pennsylvania and New York on Friday? 

They're saying a snowstorm is going to happen. I don't know to believe it.

Fun fact: On March 29, 2025, widespread upper 70s/lower 80s were observed in our area.

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

They're saying a snowstorm is going to happen. I don't know to believe it.

Fun fact: On March 29, 2025, widespread upper 70s/lower 80s were observed in our area.

Do you check the models ?

[GaWx]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah everything bought into the warm pattern real quick as NG was forecasting the pattern to basically last all Winter. It's not a wall-to-wall torch pattern this Winter, imo. 

Hey Chuck,

 Ignoring end of month highest volume contract changes, contract expirations and other misleading daily changes at investing.com, it appears to me when looking at investing.com daily data that today’s ~11% legit rise of natural gas may be the single highest legit rise in a day in all of 2025! 
 
 What do you think?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

29 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Hey Chuck,

 Ignoring end of month highest volume contract changes, contract expirations and other misleading daily changes at investing.com, it appears to me when looking at investing.com daily data that today’s ~11% legit rise of natural gas may be the single highest legit rise in a day in all of 2025! 
 
 What do you think?

Hey Larry, 

Natural Gas March contract went up 7.5% today, while the January contract is up 11.5%. They two are pretty correlated so when there is a difference like that it tells me it's focusing on more shorter term. Since Europe uses NG heavily, a strong east-based -NAO here in the next week is a cold pattern for them. We could have used the late Nov Stratosphere warming to predict this NG move! Although if we got in late Nov, it still would have been a pretty substantial loss as there was a big move down throughout the month of December. $3.28 for the March contract is still cheap, but up from the $3.00 low. Under $4.50 basically implies a +NAO mean for the majority of the Winter, while over $4.50 would imply a mean -NAO pattern. 

I would guess that from now to March, the March NG contract rises from its current $3.28 price, I'd say probably about 65-70% likely. 

[GaWx]

 I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild):

1. Week 1: Dec 29-Jan 4

Old:

 

New: colder although already expected 

 

2. Jan 12-18:

Old:

 

New:

3. Jan 19-25:

Old:

 

New:

 

4. Jan 26-Feb 1:

Old:

 

New:

[stadiumwave]

4 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild):

1. Week 1: Dec 29-Jan 4

Old:

 

New: colder although already expected 

 

2. Jan 12-18:

Old:

 

New:

3. Jan 19-25:

Old:

 

New:

 

4. Jan 26-Feb 1:

Old:

 

New:

Its a total flip of the pattern being advertised yesterday to today. The 500mb look is just ridiculously different...a flip if there ever was one. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Do you check the models ?

Yes, but I'm very skeptical of this snowstorm. They were predicting 50s on Friday until of a sudden yesterday morning, now they're predicting 30s and snow.

[MJO812]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild):

1. Week 1: Dec 29-Jan 4

Old:

 

New: colder although already expected 

 

2. Jan 12-18:

Old:

 

New:

3. Jan 19-25:

Old:

 

New:

 

4. Jan 26-Feb 1:

Old:

 

New:

Very blocky

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yes, but I'm very skeptical of this snowstorm. They were predicting 50s on Friday until of a sudden yesterday morning, now they're predicting 30s and snow.

Because the models were wrong with the warmth. Snow is coming.

[leo2000]

28 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild):

1. Week 1: Dec 29-Jan 4

Old:

 

New: colder although already expected 

 

2. Jan 12-18:

Old:

 

New:

3. Jan 19-25:

Old:

 

New:

 

4. Jan 26-Feb 1:

Old:

 

New:

They are not the only ones trending colder so is Noaa

 

 

[leo2000]

33 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild):

1. Week 1: Dec 29-Jan 4

Old:

 

New: colder although already expected 

 

2. Jan 12-18:

Old:

 

New:

3. Jan 19-25:

Old:

 

New:

 

4. Jan 26-Feb 1:

Old:

 

New:

Also preciptation looks to be above normal as well during showing up on the first two weeks the most reliable at that range. Looking at miller b coastals probably.

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

We are getting a 5850dm block between England and Iceland in a few days.. a +600dm anomaly. This will be the 2nd +600dm anomaly in a few days, as we just had one over the Aleutian islands. 

It's an east-based -NAO. See how the late November Stratosphere warming correlates to -NAO in about +30-35 days?? I went all the way back to 1948 and found that pattern with a different lag time at different times of the cold season. But this is a major hit. Models didn't pick it up until the last few days.. it will be interesting to see if it's a common bias if an early Winter Stratosphere warming happens again in the next few years. 

The reason I missed that is because I made the mistake of ignoring the lag just because it wasn't an official zonal wind reversal. My bad on that...

[GaWx]

48 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The reason I missed that is because I made the mistake of ignoring the lag just because it wasn't an official zonal wind reversal. My bad on that...

Ray,

 You may need a magnifying glass to see it, but it was just barely an official zonal wind reversal at 10 mb….but only barely (at ~-0.5 m/s per Euro on 11/28/25) after the 11/24/25 initial dip barely failed:

 

 

 

[EasternLI]

On 12/16/2025 at 7:12 AM, EasternLI said:

There is a road in some analogs where we start January with a -NAO and as we lose that, the PNA goes positive. Could we take that road this year?

Just looking through modeling trends and thinking about this again today...

[PhiEaglesfan712]

6 hours ago, bluewave said:

This is the first time in a while that the 11-15 day ensembles have had this much of a warm bias in the East. 
 

https://frontierweather.dtn.com/verification.html

This map is very reminiscent of fall/winter 2010-11. Of course, we had a very relaxed Pacific jet that year, which explains why we went cold in the East all the way through December and January, despite their being a deep -ENSO/-PDO/-IOD. Even when things moderated out in February and March 2011, those months weren't particularly that much warmer than average. (We eventually got the warmth that year, from April-July.)

We don't have a relaxed Pacific jet this year (at least I don't think), so I'd be shocked if went cold all of January. I expect a reversion to the mean, and a torch to start at some point in January, continuing into February.

[40/70 Benchmark]

56 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Just looking through modeling trends and thinking about this again today...

-NAO/-PNA, +NAO/+PNA has been the theme last 10 years or so...

[40/70 Benchmark]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Ray,

 You may need a magnifying glass to see it, but it was just barely an official zonal wind reversal at 10 mb….but only barely (at ~0.5 m/s per Euro on 11/28/25) after the 11/24/25 initial dip barely failed:

 

 

 

I guess, hardly.

[EasternLI]

2 out of 3 clusters from the EPS 12z run would be a major arctic blast to ring in the new year... So 8-10 day range. Check out cluster 2 with the exotic Atlantic/Pacific ridge bridge too. Which is the cluster they have included the OP run with. Absolutely frigid air up in that source region. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

-NAO/+PNA, +NAO/-PNA has been the theme last 10 years or so...

You mean -NAO/-PNA, +NAO/+PNA

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

You mean -NAO/-PNA, +NAO/+PNA

Yea, typo.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

The reason I missed that is because I made the mistake of ignoring the lag just because it wasn't an official zonal wind reversal. My bad on that...

Live and learn. I love techniques that have that kind of a lag time (>+20 days).. It should be noted that Stratosphere cooling events do not have a lag. They correlated with +AO at Day-0. This is for all times of the cold season. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Live and learn. I love techniques that have that kind of a lag time (>+20 days).. It should be noted that Stratosphere cooling events do not have a lag. They correlated with +AO at Day-0. This is for all times of the cold season. 

Irony is I specifically made a note of your lag periods last off season, and then got the opportunity to practice it, and didn't. lol Do you still use it even if there is no reversal?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Irony is I specifically made a note of your lag periods last off season, and then got the opportunity to practice it, and didn't. lol Do you still use it even if there is no reversal?

I use 10mb anomaly as a base. It had to clear +1000 over a 8+ day period to qualify. I think that includes some weaker events.