brooklynwx99 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago can also see the jet beginning to extend in the LR as another MJO wave traverses the MC along with strengthening +EAMT... as this wave enters the WHEM in mid-late Jan, we might have another favorable period 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago For all the bashing of the models, this looks like an incredibly accurate forecast from the Euro AI for the current period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: lol this is an absurd shift Once that trough axis moves to just west of us, crazy things can start to happen... watch out for some trackable events then. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Whoa. What is going on in Pennsylvania and New York on Friday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Natural gas is now up 10% due to the models’ much colder late Dec and now early Jan vs what last week’s models showed! If this holds, it would easily be the strongest single day since at least August. Keep in mind that NG’s strongest days are usually when the E US two week forecast is looking colder than the prior day: Natural Gas (NGF6) Real-time derived Currency in USD 4.376 +0.411(+10.37%) Real-time Data·13:51:34 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago We are getting a 5850dm block between England and Iceland in a few days.. a +600dm anomaly. This will be the 2nd +600dm anomaly in a few days, as we just had one over the Aleutian islands. It's an east-based -NAO. See how the late November Stratosphere warming correlates to -NAO in about +30-35 days?? I went all the way back to 1948 and found that pattern with a different lag time at different times of the cold season. But this is a major hit. Models didn't pick it up until the last few days.. it will be interesting to see if it's a common bias if an early Winter Stratosphere warming happens again in the next few years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, GaWx said: NG is now up 10% due to the models’ much colder late Dec and now early Jan vs what last week’s models showed! If this holds, it would easily be the strongest single day since at least August: Natural Gas (NGF6) Real-time derived Currency in USD 4.376 +0.411(+10.37%) Real-time Data·13:51:34 Yeah everything bought into the warm pattern real quick as NG was forecasting the pattern to basically last all Winter. It's not a wall-to-wall torch pattern this Winter, imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 40 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Whoa. What is going on in Pennsylvania and New York on Friday? They're saying a snowstorm is going to happen. I don't know to believe it. Fun fact: On March 29, 2025, widespread upper 70s/lower 80s were observed in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: They're saying a snowstorm is going to happen. I don't know to believe it. Fun fact: On March 29, 2025, widespread upper 70s/lower 80s were observed in our area. Do you check the models ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Yeah everything bought into the warm pattern real quick as NG was forecasting the pattern to basically last all Winter. It's not a wall-to-wall torch pattern this Winter, imo. Hey Chuck, Ignoring end of month highest volume contract changes, contract expirations and other misleading daily changes at investing.com, it appears to me when looking at investing.com daily data that today’s ~11% legit rise of natural gas may be the single highest legit rise in a day in all of 2025! What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted 48 minutes ago Share Posted 48 minutes ago 29 minutes ago, GaWx said: Hey Chuck, Ignoring end of month highest volume contract changes, contract expirations and other misleading daily changes at investing.com, it appears to me when looking at investing.com daily data that today’s ~11% legit rise of natural gas may be the single highest legit rise in a day in all of 2025! What do you think? Hey Larry, Natural Gas March contract went up 7.5% today, while the January contract is up 11.5%. They two are pretty correlated so when there is a difference like that it tells me it's focusing on more shorter term. Since Europe uses NG heavily, a strong east-based -NAO here in the next week is a cold pattern for them. We could have used the late Nov Stratosphere warming to predict this NG move! Although if we got in late Nov, it still would have been a pretty substantial loss as there was a big move down throughout the month of December. $3.28 for the March contract is still cheap, but up from the $3.00 low. Under $4.50 basically implies a +NAO mean for the majority of the Winter, while over $4.50 would imply a mean -NAO pattern. I would guess that from now to March, the March NG contract rises from its current $3.28 price, I'd say probably about 65-70% likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted 31 minutes ago Share Posted 31 minutes ago I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild): 1. Week 1: Dec 29-Jan 4 Old: New: colder although already expected 2. Jan 12-18: Old: New: 3. Jan 19-25: Old: New: 4. Jan 26-Feb 1: Old: New: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stadiumwave Posted 25 minutes ago Share Posted 25 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, GaWx said: I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild): 1. Week 1: Dec 29-Jan 4 Old: New: colder although already expected 2. Jan 12-18: Old: New: 3. Jan 19-25: Old: New: 4. Jan 26-Feb 1: Old: New: Its a total flip of the pattern being advertised yesterday to today. The 500mb look is just ridiculously different...a flip if there ever was one. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 8 minutes ago Share Posted 8 minutes ago 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Do you check the models ? Yes, but I'm very skeptical of this snowstorm. They were predicting 50s on Friday until of a sudden yesterday morning, now they're predicting 30s and snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 minutes ago Share Posted 5 minutes ago 26 minutes ago, GaWx said: I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild): 1. Week 1: Dec 29-Jan 4 Old: New: colder although already expected 2. Jan 12-18: Old: New: 3. Jan 19-25: Old: New: 4. Jan 26-Feb 1: Old: New: Very blocky 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted 5 minutes ago Share Posted 5 minutes ago 3 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said: Yes, but I'm very skeptical of this snowstorm. They were predicting 50s on Friday until of a sudden yesterday morning, now they're predicting 30s and snow. Because the models were wrong with the warmth. Snow is coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leo2000 Posted 2 minutes ago Share Posted 2 minutes ago 28 minutes ago, GaWx said: I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild): 1. Week 1: Dec 29-Jan 4 Old: New: colder although already expected 2. Jan 12-18: Old: New: 3. Jan 19-25: Old: New: 4. Jan 26-Feb 1: Old: New: They are not the only ones trending colder so is Noaa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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