2025-2026 ENSO

[donsutherland1]

Just a brief note, the probability that the warmth will break through into the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas to close December has increased in recent days.  The widespread warmth elsewhere in much of the CONUS and cold in NW Canada and Alaska remain intact. The forecast EPO+/PNA- seems sufficiently strong to offset the combination of a neutral AO and negative NAO even into parts of the Northeast now. Previously, the EPO was forecast to be mainly negative for the close of December.

EPS from Wednesday 0z:

EPS from Today 0z:

[EasternLI]

Regardless of what happens with this blocking potential. I think there's a pretty good chance of popping a +PNA after that first week of January. Via Pacific wave break. I can make a longer post about that tomorrow.

[EastonSN+]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Todays Euro Weeklies are still not great by any means but they are a bit colder/less mild during 3 weeks of the 4 weeks starting with week 2:

12/29-1/4 yesterday

 

12/29-1/4 today

1/12-18 yesterday

 

1/12-18 today

 

1/5-11 was also a little colder today

**Edited for corrections needed in my captioning because I had “today” and “yesterday” reversed. Today’s are less mild as I said.

Just looking at those pics it looks like non stop blocked (neg NAO) vs. Central ridge. Pattern stuck.

[EastonSN+]

42 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Just a brief note, the probability that the warmth will break through into the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas to close December has increased in recent days.  The widespread warmth elsewhere in much of the CONUS and cold in NW Canada and Alaska remain intact. The forecast EPO+/PNA- seems sufficiently strong to offset the combination of a neutral AO and negative NAO even into parts of the Northeast now. Previously, the EPO was forecast to be mainly negative for the close of December.

EPS from Wednesday 0z:

EPS from Today 0z:

At least good for energy savings.

[MJO812]

39 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

At least good for energy savings.

Its winter. It is supposed to be cold.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Just a brief note, the probability that the warmth will break through into the northern Mid-Atlantic and southern New England areas to close December has increased in recent days.  The widespread warmth elsewhere in much of the CONUS and cold in NW Canada and Alaska remain intact. The forecast EPO+/PNA- seems sufficiently strong to offset the combination of a neutral AO and negative NAO even into parts of the Northeast now. Previously, the EPO was forecast to be mainly negative for the close of December.

EPS from Wednesday 0z:

EPS from Today 0z:

Wow, who could have seen this coming....(looks in mirror and raises hand)-

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Ill ask my work colleague as I am also interested if there is something out there. I don't see why there wouldn't be. I start vacation this weekend into the new year so I'll have free time to finally catch up on things online (thankfully). I know I keep saying this but I will set up the thread this weekend to chat about RONI.

Im still surprised so many folks are caught off guard by this warm up and the potential of it being an extensive one at that, I wouldn't go as far as to say we are 'torching' but some areas especially in the southern plains and even lower midwest could hit record territory. Been beating this warm drum since about the beginning of the month.

Even with the prospects of a deep -NAO coming up this does not cause any bit of a cooldown for much of the east after christmas into the new year, as should be expected. I would not be surprised to see temps get to average if not slightly below average a few times during the week before the end of the year but overall much of the cold that has been across the eastern 1/3rd of the country should take a solid beating on the monthly scale. The cold is locked in Alaska and NW Canada I do expect as we get into the new year and especially after the first week for us to push a more normal state temp wise and eventually that cold should dislodge and make a run into the CONUS. 

We should know the models have a hard time grasping these types of pattern evolving (the potential retrogression) just like they tend to rush a -NAO out much quicker than reality suggests.

It's because they are going by guidance. This is the benefit of putting in the work all summer and fall to develop your own seasonal paradigm...are you right 100% of the time? God, no....but you become more adept at thinking critically and aren't enslaved to capricious and inaccurate long range guidance. When you are wrong, you grow from it if you put in the effort to understand why.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Mid January is the next window....+TNH will be the vehicle for change if my idea is right, followed by big strat disruption in February to set up for an interesting finish.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Still early, but so far my biggest error is mixing up the WPO and EPO....I did the same thing last year. Those are tough to call on a seasonal scale.

[snowman19]

I have to agree with Eric Webb here. Despite what twitter is saying, this year looks absolutely nothing at all like last year at this time. It’s not even remotely close. The twitterologists either don’t have any semblance of a clue as to what they’re talking about or are straight up wishcasting if they think we are going right into the exact same pattern we had last winter by early January

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I have to agree with Eric Webb here. Despite what twitter is saying, this year looks absolutely nothing at all like last year at this time. It’s not even remotely close. The twitterologists either don’t have any semblance of a clue as to what they’re talking about or are straight up wishcasting if they think we are going right into the exact same pattern we had last winter by early January
 

We'll see what happens. I still think we go +TNH in mid January, but I am admittedly less confident on that than I was the mid December flip to warmer.

[snowman19]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

We'll see what happens. I still think we go +TNH in mid January, but I am admittedly less confident on that than I was the mid December flip to warmer.

I mean your forecast looks very good so far. Mid-January aside, the twitter fantasy that this is a carbon copy of last year at this time and that we are about to go right back into an exact replica of the start of January last year, is completely absurd

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I mean your forecast looks very good so far. Mid-January aside, the twitter fantasy that this is a carbon copy of last year at this time and that we are about to go right back into an exact replica of the start of January last year, is completely absurd

Yea, I think the rest of 2025 and for the most part, the first half of January are mild, and hostile to major east coast snow. Maybe the NE sneaks in some SWFE's/overrunning.

[GaWx]

57 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I have to agree with Eric Webb here. Despite what twitter is saying, this year looks absolutely nothing at all like last year at this time. It’s not even remotely close. The twitterologists either don’t have any semblance of a clue as to what they’re talking about or are straight up wishcasting if they think we are going right into the exact same pattern we had last winter by early January
 

 
I agree that this is nothing like how Jan, 2025 was looking at this point in Dec of 2024, when the Euro Weeklies were much colder and this was the NOAA weeks 3-4 outlook, one of the coldest on record for the SE half of the US:

 

AAM forecast had this then:
 

 

Current AAM forecast:

 

 A somewhat better comparison might be this time in Dec of 2021, when there was a similarly very strong -PNA, Christmas was looking very warm, and there were still no strong hints on the 2 week guidance that a huge change was on the way although some CFS runs were cold in part of Jan.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Mid January is the next window....+TNH will be the vehicle for change if my idea is right, followed by big strat disruption in February to set up for an interesting finish.

Having to punt the first half of January in a Nina isn't great for anybody on the EC, in my opinion. You always have the looming possibility of that SE ridge in February. Now when you say Feb strat disruption that reminds me of February 2018. By the time it took effect it was in time for those further north like you (I think you all got a March blizzard)...but not so much south. Oof

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Having to punt the first half of January in a Nina isn't great for anybody on the EC, in my opinion. You always have the looming possibility of that SE ridge in February. Now when you say Feb strat disruption that reminds me of February 2018. By the time it took effect it was in time for those further north like you (I think you all got a March blizzard)...but not so much south. Oof

March 2001 is another great analog.....maybe March 2023 with a less hostile Pacific.

[40/70 Benchmark]

8 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 
I agree that this is nothing like how Jan, 2025 was looking at this point in Dec of 2024, when the Euro Weeklies were much colder and this was the NOAA weeks 3-4 outlook, one of the coldest on record for the SE half of the US:

 

AAM forecast had this then:
 

 

Current AAM forecast:

 

 A somewhat better comparison might be this time in Dec of 2021, when there was a similarly very strong -PNA, Christmas was looking very warm, and there were still no strong hints on the 2 week guidance that a huge change was on the way although some CFS runs were cold in part of Jan.

I'm thrilled it doesn't look like last year.

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Having to punt the first half of January in a Nina isn't great for anybody on the EC, in my opinion. You always have the looming possibility of that SE ridge in February. Now when you say Feb strat disruption that reminds me of February 2018. By the time it took effect it was in time for those further north like you (I think you all got a March blizzard)...but not so much south. Oof

Who is punting ?

[MJO812]

I wouldn't be shocked if the models get colder towards the end of this month into January with the NAO and AO dropping especially for the Northeast. Yes the PNA will be negative. 

I know the same culprits will weenie me but go ahead screenshot this like I have screenshotted all your missed calls.

[snowman19]

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I wouldn't be shocked if the models get colder towards the end of this month into January with the NAO and AO dropping especially for the Northeast. Yes the PNA will be negative. 

I know the same culprits will weenie me but go ahead screenshot this like I have screenshotted all your missed calls.

First of all, I think some of the guidance exaggerated the blocking...especially a couple of days ago. Secondly, -NAO doesn't matter if your arctic flow is cut-off, which it will be with the lower heights building over AK to counter the Bering ridge. Finally, and this goes along with #1....I think guidance not only exaggerated the amplitude of the blocking, but the extent to which it will retrograde into a favorable position, and east-based "thumb-ridges" are far less impactful for the east.

[snowman19]

@40/70 Benchmark Judah agrees with you
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

 

Absolute-100% same page.

[GaWx]

 As I just posted, this time a year ago had a much colder weeks 3-4 outlook than now. But I also said that a somewhat better comparison might be how it looked for Jan 2022 at this time, when instead of one of the coldest week 3-4 outlooks on record for the SE half of the US, it was suggesting a mild SE half of the US (including Mid-Atlantic) was a better possibility:

 A little after this point in Dec of 2021, when there was a similar very strong -PNA to what’s being forecasted for late Dec, the weeks 3-4 outlook was far different than it was in 2024:

 How did Jan 8-21, 2022 verify in Greensboro, NC? They ended up 4 BELOW normal and had two 1”+ snowfalls. So, one would have had no clue from NOAA even as late as Dec 24th that a cold Jan of 2022 in much of the E US was incoming.

[MJO812]

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 As I just posted, this time a year ago had a much colder weeks 3-4 outlook than now. But I also said that a somewhat better comparison might be how it looked for Jan 2022 at this time, when instead of one of the coldest week 3-4 outlooks on record for the SE half of the US, it was suggesting a mild SE half of the US (including Mid-Atlantic) was a better possibility:

 A little after this point in Dec of 2021, when there was a similar very strong -PNA to what’s being forecasted for late Dec, the weeks 3-4 outlook was far different than it was in 2024:

 How did Jan 8-21, 2022 verify in Greensboro, NC? They ended up 4 BELOW normal and had two 1”+ snowfalls. So, one would have had no clue from NOAA even as late as Dec 24th that a cold Jan of 2022 in much of the E US was incoming.

I think January 2022 is a decent analog, but the cold will likely be delayed a bit relative to that month.

[donsutherland1]

On 12/3/2025 at 7:17 AM, donsutherland1 said:

IMO, this oversimplifies the PNA. A PNA- is not only possible, but is likely to be the predominant state this month based on broad consensus of the guidance. There's a lot more that contributes to the PNA.

So far, December has seen PNA values of +0.022 on December 1st and -0.149 on December 2nd. 

Yesterday's GEFS forecast:

Here's the EPS 46-Day forecast:

Last winter provides a good example of how one can reach incorrect conclusions from oversimplifying things. Despite the La Niña, the PNA was positive on almost 96% of days. It was also +1.000 or above on 34% of days. ENSO-PNA mismatches can occur. These mismatches are a product of a more complex ocean-atmosphere system than would be suggested by simpler rules. In short, even as there is a tendency for the PNA to be negative during La Niña/positive during El Niño (same direct relationship with regard to the PDO), that tendency is far from iron-clad.

All said, I see little at this time to suggest that the base scenario of a PNA- December has grown less likely. The continued persistence of the guidance has, if anything, reinforced the base scenario of a predominant PNA- overall.

I've bumped this post, because the original embedded tweets calling for a PNA+ in December were deleted (not by @stadiumwave). It's ok to be wrong in a field where there are no crystal balls and variables typically have low coefficients of determination. These low coefficients of determination increase complexity and raise risks of oversimplification. Error is inescapable. It's also ok to change one's thinking. Indeed, the information on how one's thinking evolves can provide insight and also learning opportunities.

IMO, it's not ok to simply delete posts to obscure one's errors. Indeed, it is bad practice. That someone I greatly respect and who has done pioneering work on the MJO engaged in this bad practice makes it all the more disappointing.

Although the original post is gone, at least some people remember that the prediction made (and one I questioned here) was for a predominantly positive PNA in December. The argument was that the base state did not favor a PNA-.

Probably not too surprisingly, the poster's question was ignored. Responding to it would have acknowledged the original position that apparently was deleted.

 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

I've bumped this post, because the original embedded tweets calling for a PNA+ in December were deleted (not by Stadiumwave). It's ok to be wrong in a field where there are no crystal balls and variables typically have low coefficients of determination. These low coefficients of determination increase complexity and raise risks of oversimplification. Error is inescapable. It's also ok to change one's thinking. Indeed, the information on how one's thinking evolves can provide insight and also learning opportunities.

IMO, it's not ok to simply delete posts to obscure one's errors. Indeed, it is bad practice. That someone I greatly respect makes this bad practice all the more disappointing.

Although the original post is gone, at least some people remember that the prediction made (and one I questioned here) was for a predominantly positive PNA in December. The argument was that the base state did not favor a PNA-.

Probably not too surprisingly, the poster's question was ignored. Responding to it would have acknowledged the original position that apparently was deleted.

 

 

 

Ha...I remember that. Wow, that is weak.....lost some respect. Acknowledgement of errors is the primary catalyst for growth.

[donsutherland1]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Ha...I remember that. Wow, that is weak.....lost some respect. Acknowledgement of errors is the primary catalyst for growth.

I agree. I've made some horrific errors. They were good opportunities for learning/improvement. I've never deleted any of my posts, good or bad. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, donsutherland1 said:

I agree. I've made some horrific errors. They were good opportunities for learning/improvement. I've never deleted any of my posts, good or bad. 

I'm sure everyone remembers how brutally awful I handled the El Nino a couple of years ago....was completely undressed by @bluewaveon how it would interact with the west Pacific. It was the best thing that ever happened to me in terms of my ability to forecast on a seasonal level