2025-2026 ENSO

[stadiumwave]

 

Mean never gets to normal at all now throughout the forecast period. 

[michsnowfreak]

Weeklies below avg every week here. SE ridge definitely appears to have been overdone.

[kazimirkai]

6 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Mean never gets to normal at all now throughout the forecast period. 

lotta spread though 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Weeklies below avg every week here. SE ridge definitely appears to have been overdone.

Its below average through the 1st week of January  even here also.

[TheClimateChanger]

 

[MJO812]

[Terpeast]

13 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

lotta spread though 

True, but more and more members falling below the mean and even reversing. Still very far out and can/will change a ton, though. 

[leo2000]

23 minutes ago, kazimirkai said:

lotta spread though 

Confirms what I have been thinking (so far). We shall see though. 

[GaWx]

Regarding today’s Euro Weeklies, it’s the most bullish (i.e., colder changes vs prior run) overall in a long time in the NE and SE. I’m not saying they’re cold in the SE,  but they are colder than they were/not as mild or not mild overall. I don’t have time to post details right now, but y’all check it out! Or someone else please post the maps.

Edit: Every one of the 5 weeks is colder and/or less mild in both the NE and SE US vs yesterday’s run including one dramatically colder week. That hasn’t happened in quite awhile.

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, kazimirkai said:

lotta spread though 

 

Of course, there is always a large spread in LR. I said the mean. The mean had been going above normal for several days...it is not now. That is why I shared it.

There are a lot of members much, much weaker, even implying a possibility of maybe future warming. 

[leo2000]

 

 

 

 

 

Precip predictions

 

 

 

 

 

 

[donsutherland1]

The pattern evolution for the opening 10 days of December still looks very good. With respect to the December 11-25 period, the guidance has shifted. For a time, the GEFS was showing the development of a pronounced AO+ pattern. Now, it has backed off (12z and 18z cycles). As a consequence, the baseline Scenario 1 still seems to be the best one going forward, while recognizing that there is some risk of a break near mid-month. 

The latest ECMWF weekly forecast largely maintains the sensible weather effects from Scenario 1. Given the shifting of the guidance, it makes sense to continue to monitor the teleconnections (and other factors) while reserving judgment for changes until later to avoid making changes based more on model noise than actual developments.

Milwaukee, Chicago, Detroit, and Toronto remain in line for a snowstorm during the November 29-30 period. Significant snow is possible in Milwaukee and Chicago. A moderate snowfall looks reasonable for both Detroit and Toronto. Changes can still occur. WPC is now showing a 70% chance of a moderate winter storm impact in Chicago and surrounding areas for the 24-hour period ending November 30 7 am.

Chicago remains on course to experience its snowiest fall since 2019 (8.3") and possibly even 2018 (12.7"). Milwaukee should see its snowiest fall since 2019 (13.4"). Detroit will likely experience its snowiest fall since 2021 (7.1") and possibly 2019 (9.5"). Toronto could see its snowiest fall since 2020 (23.4 cm/9.2") and perhaps 2002 (27.2 cm/10.7").

Fall 2025 Snowfall Totals (through November 26):
Chicago: 1.7"
Detroit: 2.2"
Milwaukee: 0.6"
Toronto: 12.8 cm (5.0")

 

[so_whats_happening]

13 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Where did you pull those graphics from?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/Composites/Temperature/

[GaWx]

37 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The pattern evolution for the opening 10 days of December still looks very good. With respect to the December 11-25 period, the guidance has shifted. For a time, the GEFS was showing the development of a pronounced AO+ pattern. Now, it has backed off (12z and 18z cycles). As a consequence, the baseline Scenario 1 still seems to be the best one going forward, while recognizing that there is some risk of a break near mid-month. 

The latest ECMWF weekly forecast largely maintains the sensible weather effects from Scenario 1. Given the shifting of the guidance, it makes sense to continue to monitor the teleconnections (and other factors) while reserving judgment for changes until later to avoid making changes based more on model noise than actual developments.

Milwaukee, Chicago, Detroit, and Toronto remain in line for a snowstorm during the November 29-30 period. Significant snow is possible in Milwaukee and Chicago. A moderate snowfall looks reasonable for both Detroit and Toronto. Changes can still occur. WPC is now showing a 70% chance of a moderate winter storm impact in Chicago and surrounding areas for the 24-hour period ending November 30 7 am.

Chicago remains on course to experience its snowiest fall since 2019 (8.3") and possibly even 2018 (12.7"). Milwaukee should see its snowiest fall since 2019 (13.4"). Detroit will likely experience its snowiest fall since 2021 (7.1") and possibly 2019 (9.5"). Toronto could see its snowiest fall since 2020 (23.4 cm/9.2") and perhaps 2002 (27.2 cm/10.7").

Fall 2025 Snowfall Totals (through November 26):
Chicago: 1.7"
Detroit: 2.2"
Milwaukee: 0.6"
Toronto: 12.8 cm (5.0")

 

 Look at how much colder H5 on the Euro Weeklies is compared to yesterday’s: that’s a big change for a 30 day period!

Yesterday’s:

Today’s: