2025-2026 ENSO

[MJO812]

No backpedaling here

P8

 

[MJO812]

Further south dip

 

[MJO812]

Weeklies are great for December. They kill the SE ridge.

[GaWx]

39 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Further south dip

 

This shows that the Euro is now leaning toward that later period for the actual reversal (~11/28 instead of 11/25). Add in a several week lag and a potential of a phase 8 MJO followed hopefully by 1-2 and we’d have a realistic chance for a several week long period of cold domination in the E US starting as early as near mid-Dec. Prior to this potential, there’d also likely be a mild dominated next 30 days, which shouldn’t be ignored.

[donsutherland1]

In conjunction with its annual Holiday train show, the New York Botanical Garden is running a feature called "the Nightmare Before Christmas Light Trail." Some of these characters could well have been taken from this thread.

The Southeast Ridge

Waiting for Winter

[mitchnick]

24 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

In conjunction with its annual Holiday train show, the New York Botanical Garden is running a feature called "the Nightmare Before Christmas Light Trail." Some of these characters could well have been taken from this thread.

The Southeast Ridge

Waiting for Winter

 

 

 

Been a Iong time since I've been to a great train show. I have a bunch of trains from my youth in my closet to this day in fact. Can't get myself to throw them out or otherwise part with them. Plus, a few are worth a couple of bucks...more evidence of one's age. 

[GaWx]

1. AAM is now dropping back from neutral and is forecasted to be in a solid -AAM (solid Ninaish) through the next 30 days per this CFS ens run:

 

2. WCS daily PDO has risen steeply the last 6 days and is up to -0.83, the highest daily since May:

[SnowGoose69]

One notable thing today is a -NAO, albeit a weak one showing up at the end of all ensemble runs.  It makes a difference for sure, even if its just -1 if its far enough west as far as flattening the SE ridge component 

[MJO812]

[leo2000]

35 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The best you can ask for really its going to happen for sure now. 

[BlizzardWx]

These aren't very polished, but for fun here is the GFS, GEFS, and CMCE 10 hPa zonal mean wind for the next 16 days. CMCE is on board with the SSW in the mean, GEFS is lagging. 

[snowman19]

@Gawx Sunspots over 110 so far this month. Very high geomag continuing as well, as has been the case since solar activity picked back up in August. If this follows the trend you found since 1979, this is very likely to be a +NAO winter
 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said:

One notable thing today is a -NAO, albeit a weak one showing up at the end of all ensemble runs.  It makes a difference for sure, even if its just -1 if its far enough west as far as flattening the SE ridge component 

The only Southeast ridge component that really matters is on the day of the storms like last winter.

Even if a Southeast ridge isn’t showing in the means, if a storm is tracking through the Great Lakes we will get the Southeast ridge to flex for a day before the storm cuts to our west or hugs the I-78 to I-84 corridor.

Long range ensembles never show this since they are too smoothed out in the long range and have trouble seeing the individual shortwaves. We really haven’t seen a gradient pattern work closer to NYC in a long time due to this for more than light snows. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 11/14/2025 at 7:27 PM, Maestrobjwa said:

But that would be kinda atypical for a nina, no?

If they were all the same, Outlooks would be easy.

[40/70 Benchmark]

22 hours ago, GaWx said:

 I just looked up -ENSO winters with a -PNA in Dec to see how often it went to a +PNA in Jan. In what winters did this occur?

-1954-5: -0.52 to +0.40

-1962-3: -0.08 to +0.58

-1983-4: -0.31 to +0.97

-1984-5: -1.60 to +1.63

-1996-7: -1.23 to +0.63

-1998-9: -0.09 to +0.16

-2008-9: -1.41 to +0.61

-2010-11: -1.78 to +1.29

-2012-3: -1.01 to +0.55

-2013-4: -0.86 to +0.97

-2016-7: -0.35 to +0.28

-2021-2: -2.56 to +1.01

-2022-3: -0.66 to +0.22

 So, although it wasn’t common from 1954-5 through 1971-2, when only 2 of 9 (22%) switched, here’s something that just blew my mind:

-ALL 11 -ENSO -PNA Decs since 1983-4 switched to +PNA Jans (listed above)!

-These 11 averaged +0.76 in January!

-Now, check out the -ENSO Jan PNAs since 1983-4 that had a +PNA in Dec:

1) 1985-6 went from +1.39 to +0.97

2) 1988-9 went from +0.63 to -0.72

3) 1995-6 went from +0.92 to -0.02

4) 1999-00 went from +0.21 to -0.82

5) 2000-01 went from +1.23 to +1.51

6) 2001-2 went from +0.56 to -0.04

7) 2005-6 went from +1.38 to -0.43

8) 2007-8 went from +0.14 to -0.32

9) 2011-2 went from +0.36 to +0.60

10) 2017-8 went from +0.89 to +0.40

11) 2020-1 went from +1.58 to +0.19

12) 2024-5 went from +1.70 to +1.05

 -So, for these 12 -ENSO Decs since 1983-4 with a +PNA, only 50% also had a +PNA in Jan.

-So, since 1983-4, whereas only 50% of the 12 -ENSO Decs with a +PNA also had a Jan +PNA, 100% of the 11 -ENSO Decs with a -PNA in Dec went to a +PNA in Jan! Thus, having a -PNA in Dec during -ENSO since 1983-4 has, if anything, meant a big increase in the chance for a +PNA in Jan whether random or not! I didn’t know this til just now.

Link to monthly PNAs back to 1950:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.pna.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table
 

@donsutherland1

Yes, I do expect a +PNA month of January.