2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

@snowman19, it's a weak La Nina...nothing is supportive of anything stronger. Zero.. I agree that ultimately it will get close to the moderate threshold, but not right now.

At absolutely no point did I ever say it wouldn’t be a weak La Niña. Never ever, not once. However, it is much, much better coupled than last year at this time 

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

Is the PDO weaker negative than last year at this time yes. But the La Niña is much better established this time around than last year, which was a late bloomer Niña…cooler Nino region SSTs, EWBs/enhanced trades started earlier this year,  the eastern PAC (GOA, along the west coast of NA and down to Baja) is cooler and there is a very pronounced -PMM (very supportive of Nina) whereas last year we had a +PMM at this time. Also, much deeper and well established +SOI and a deeply negative AAM (Nina). Would love to see what the MEI is but that doesn’t update anymore

@GaWx Edit: The deeply negative -IOD speaks for itself as far as being very supportive of La Niña/constructive interference 

If you don't wish to post photos it is fine, I do wish you would at least reference the sites so that people could see what you are mentioning is all. 

[GaWx]

  Here’s a WxBell CFS control Jan map (originally posted today by an unknown person, who added his own comments) that was reposted today at another BB by someone who got this in his FB feed (i.e., this is NOT a WxBell post..it is someone else posting a WxBell map with his own commentary):

 Here was my response:

 This is a control run (18Z of yesterday) of the WxBell CFS being forecasted out 2 months. Even calling this map less than worthless is being kind.

 Keep in mind that these are in C, not F. So, it gives the majority of the middle 1/3 of the US a record obliterating cold Jan.

 To show how silly this run is, it has Chicago at an obliterating alltime record breaking cold Jan of 14C/25F BN, which is -1F! The coldest Jan (and any month for that matter) on record back to 1873 is +10.1F (1977). So, this CFS control run is forecasting Chicago to have a Jan that is 11F colder than any month they’ve had during the last 153 years!

 Now here’s the very next CFS control run, the 0Z 11/2 run:

 Instead of mid-America having a record obliterating cold Jan, it has much warmer than normal in much of the same area! It has Chicago only 3 F AN because the WxBell CFS maps always show a funky cold spot centered on Lake Michigan (funky WxBell CFS algos is another issue for another time that I’ve posted about before). So, it has Chicago at an AN +27F vs -1F on the prior run or 28F warmer lmao!

@donsutherland1

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, GaWx said:

  Here’s a WxBell CFS control Jan map (originally posted today by an unknown person, who added his own comments) that was reposted today at another BB by someone who got this in his FB feed (i.e., this is NOT a WxBell post..it is someone else posting a WxBell map with his own commentary):

 Here was my response:

 This is a control run (18Z of yesterday) of the WxBell CFS being forecasted out 2 months. Even calling this map less than worthless is being kind.

 Keep in mind that these are in C, not F. So, it gives the majority of the middle 1/3 of the US a record obliterating cold Jan.

 To show how silly this run is, it has Chicago at an obliterating alltime record breaking cold Jan of 14C/25F BN, which is -1F! The coldest Jan (and any month for that matter) on record back to 1873 is +10.1F (1977). So, this CFS control run is forecasting Chicago to have a Jan that is 11F colder than any month they’ve had during the last 153 years!

 Now here’s the very next CFS control run, the 0Z 11/2 run:

 Instead of mid-America having a record obliterating cold Jan, it has much warmer than normal in much of the same area! It has Chicago only 3 F AN because the WxBell CFS maps always show a funky cold spot centered on Lake Michigan (funky WxBell CFS algos is another issue for another time that I’ve posted about before). So, it has Chicago at an AN +27F vs -1F on the prior run or 28F warmer lmao!

@donsutherland1

I agree with your post. IMO, those maps should not be published on any credible site. Such wild swings and extremes on a run-to-run basis are not too surprising. That's why NCEP blends multiple cycles. 

[DarkSharkWX]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm glad that you clarified exactly what you were insinuating with these nebulous -IOD inferences. I am going to post my outlook either next weekend or more likely early the week of Nov 10th and will look into this a great deal since ENSO in and of itself is pretty clear. It seems like you are implying that this weak east-central based event will act like a Modoki event because of the -IOD? I don't have an issue with that in a vacuum, since other factors easily overwhelm the Modoki index when ENSO is weak, however, if you look back at 2008, which you have compared this -IOD event to on several occasions, that did not happen. And that event actual was Modoki.  It made it to phase 7 in December, all the way around in January and even kissed phase 8 again briefly in February before hitting phase 8 again at high amplitude in March.

2007-08 or 2008-09?

it's very hard to isolate the effect of the -IOD given covariability between IOD and ENSO, but webb tried to do so (for weak to mdt -ENSO using 20cr) and the results were interesting; hints of -NAO/+PNA in early winter then a snap to +NAO and strong PV in feb, sort of exaggerating canonical nina progression(also similar to -QBO/high solar -ENSO)

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1984271391596916942

[Stormchaserchuck1]

October SOI came in at +12.. which was the highest monthly reading since December 2022! Here's how that rolls forward to the following Winter:

Cooler December, warmer February

[GaWx]

New CFS forecast for Indian Ocean

Nov: still -IOD (W IO less E IO)

 

Dec: rising quickly toward neutral, which would be consistent with climo since -IOD typically is already peaking or has already peaked

@snowman19

[SnowGoose69]

14 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

October SOI came in at +12.. which was the highest monthly reading since December 2022! Here's how that rolls forward to the following Winter:

Cooler December, warmer February

Yeah problem still is the subsurface is concerning.  I am not confident this thing gets over like -0.6 

[FPizz]

[GaWx]

57 minutes ago, FPizz said:

  This has the ens 10 mb mean zonal wind as low as only +14 to +15 in late Nov (prior runs’ lowest were +18) and is at least tied for the highest % of members of any run so far this season with a very early season major SSW (reversal) at 25%+.