2025-2026 ENSO

[brooklynwx99]

this is a pretty wild change near Japan since August. that heatwave is almost entirely wiped out... wondering if this is a change to a +PDO down the road, especially if we get a Nino next year

[George001]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I can see 2013, 2014 though? Lol That was +ENSO and ++PDO

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1 Strongest -IOD of the 21st century
 

Either way 2014 isn’t an analog I would use, but I do think it’s worth keeping an open mind about +ENSO analogs if other factors line up. I would prefer a negative PDO though 

[WxWatcher007]

4 hours ago, GaWx said:

2025 ACE:

Through Sept 16th: 39

Sept 17th+: 74 and rising rapidly.

The full season to date ACE is progged to get above the 1991-2020 full season avg of 122 by tonight and then go well above that within the next few days. This very active late season ACE has been the pattern especially in recent La Nina seasons.

 There have been 4 MH with 3 of them occurring since Sept 22!

 

Which worked well for my peak season forecast, though I missed Melissa by 11 hours lol. 

[Yanksfan]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is a pretty wild change near Japan since August. that heatwave is almost entirely wiped out... wondering if this is a change to a +PDO down the road, especially if we get a Nino next year

That should help to slow down the raging pac jet a bit this winter but we need more cooling to see a more pronounced slow down.

[stadiumwave]

12 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We have reached the point where people using 2013 as an SST analog (SST analog) have an issue. Not commenting on any other factors being used as an analog to that year, just SSTs. But as it stands now, we are not even in the ballpark of going into a Victoria mode PDO, not even close, whereas we were into a Victoria mode PDO by the beginning of November back in 2013….

 

If you're referring simply to the SST's in N Pac, I guess you have not bothered to look at the progression of the NPAC in Fall & Winter 2013?? NPAC went from emerging blob in Sept to colder than now in Oct & then warm again by the end of DEC. 

https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/729-winter-2025-2026/page/6/#findComment-127931

 

Go look for yourself:

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/2013.html

[GaWx]

On 10/26/2025 at 4:23 PM, GaWx said:

Today’s Euro Weeklies 10 mb zonal wind update fwiw:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies run mean has an even weaker SPV with only 8 of the 42 days’ mean stronger than normal, and it even includes 15% of members with a very early major SSW, by far the most yet of any run this season!

 Note that the progged mean Thanksgiving through Dec 11th of 2025 SPV is only ~20 vs normal of 31, which would be the weakest for that period since 2019-20:

 

Compare the above to the prog at the same time last year: 40 of the 42 days’ mean stronger than normal along with ZERO members with a major SSW:

 Note that the mean Thanksgiving through Dec 12th of 2024 was up at ~37 (it verified to be way up at ~45)

Now compare to the prog from the same time two years ago: 30 of the 42 days’ mean stronger than normal with only 2% with a major SSW:

Note that the mean Thanksgiving through Dec 9th of 2023 was ~31 (it verified to be ~34):

 

 In summary, this post shows that the 100 member Euro Weeklies mean is suggesting a mainly weak SPV in late Nov and early Dec, which would compare to a very strong SPV for the same time in 2024 and a slightly stronger than normal SPV in 2023. Even if we assume that the 2025 prog is biased modestly too negative, a bias adjustment would still be progged pretty weak (~25) and would be way below 2024’s actual of 45 and significantly below 2023’s actual of 34.
 

@mitchnick@snowman19

[snowman19]

12 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

If you're referring simply to the SST's in N Pac, I guess you have not bothered to look at the progression of the NPAC in Fall & Winter 2013?? NPAC went from emerging blob in Sept to colder than now in Oct & then warm again by the end of DEC. 

https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/729-winter-2025-2026/page/6/#findComment-127931

 

Go look for yourself:

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/2013.html

I actually have bothered to look smart guy. It warmed back up in early November back then. I love how you suddenly appear here with insults after contributing absolutely nothing to this thread since it began. One of those who only posts from November through the end of March then disappears 

[snowman19]

15 hours ago, Yanksfan said:

That should help to slow down the raging pac jet a bit this winter but we need more cooling to see a more pronounced slow down.

These are the actual current anomalies, they have cooled but are still pretty warm

[snowman19]

“The next few days will see a polar vortex strengthen due to less solar radiation. However, to date it seems temporary with a zonal deceleration towards December. The eQBO maintains a weak polar vortex, but without support from the EPflux with Eddys momentum and heat fluxes, it will be difficult to get cold in the mid-latitudes. In this case, the MJO or tropical convention will play a key role in the dynamics of heat fluxes in the polar vortex if it propagates towards the Pacific with good amplitude in December.
A W1 pattern over the Pacific seems likely with December. Obviously, if the MJO does not propagate over the Pacific Ocean, there will be no convergent heat fluxes that make the PV weak, and this will be a problem.”:
 

 

“A negative QBO phase always lifts hopes for mid-latitude winter cold enthusiasts, owing to its influence on the stratospheric PV.

But the QBO's links to surface weather are not simple.

Perhaps surprisingly, during La Niña a -QBO is warmer than a +QBO in early winter in N Europe”:

 

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

These are the actual current anomalies, they have cooled but are still pretty warm

I get it that people on here are eager to see some type of shift with the SST and atmospheric state in the WPAC.  But what we we are seeing now is only a reduction from very high summer levels to a still very warm level. It’s primarily a result of the recurving typhoons and unusually strong +WPO for October. Plus the subsurface is still plenty warm.

So like after the cooling last winter, it didn’t take long for the surface to warm back up in the following months since the subsurface has so much stored heat energy. This is why the PDO has been fluxuaring between deeply negative states and levels and readings which aren’t as negative. But the orientation of the entire sea and atmospheric state results in the -PDO persisting at varying levels. 

Even with the decline from the extremely warm surface levels to still very warm, this October has produced one of the strongest East Asian to North Pacific Jets on record for the month of October. So it’s really the gradient between Siberia and the entirety of the Western and Central Pacific Ocean SST warmth.

 

[stadiumwave]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

I actually have bothered to look smart guy. It warmed back up in early November back then. I love how you suddenly appear here with insults after contributing absolutely nothing to this thread since it began. One of those who only posts from November through the end of March then disappears 

 

Sorry, not trying to be a smartguy. And no I do not have a ton of time to post, but I do read. And when you make a point about cooling SST's in NPAC as a slam dunk against a 2013 type blob, I felt it was very fair to give an accurate analysis. 

Personally, I do not think having a warm NPAC will equal some 2013-14 type winter, but that is beside the point. The NPAC on Oct 24th, 2013 is very similar to the current look with the exception that the current anomalies are warmer. 

Oct 24, 2013

Current

And as far as when 2013 warmth returned tonthe Eastern NPAC it was not until the later part of DEC:

NOV 14, 2013

 

DEC 15, 2013

 

Sorry, it ruffled your feathers. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 hours ago, stadiumwave said:

 

If you're referring simply to the SST's in N Pac, I guess you have not bothered to look at the progression of the NPAC in Fall & Winter 2013?? NPAC went from emerging blob in Sept to colder than now in Oct & then warm again by the end of DEC. 

https://www.wxsphere.com/topic/729-winter-2025-2026/page/6/#findComment-127931

 

Go look for yourself:

https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/2013.html

I mentioned that to him a couple of weeks ago.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

These are the actual current anomalies, they have cooled but are still pretty warm

Yea, to be fair...really only one direction for them to go.

[40/70 Benchmark]

15 minutes ago, stadiumwave said:

 

Sorry, not trying to be a smartguy. And no I do not have a ton of time to post, but I do read. And when you make a point about cooling SST's in NPAC as a slam dunk against a 2013 type blob, I felt it was very fair to give an accurate analysis. 

Personally, I do not think having a warm NPAC will equal some 2013-14 type winter, but that is beside the point. The NPAC on Oct 24th, 2013 is very similar to the current look with the exception that the current anomalies are warmer. 

Oct 24, 2013

Current

And as far as when 2013 warmth returned tonthe Eastern NPAC it was not until the later part of DEC:

NOV 14, 2013

 

DEC 15, 2013

 

Sorry, it ruffled your feathers. 

Very important point...personally, I feel folks get too carried away with SST maps because although somewhat of a feedback can develop to a degree, they are not the primary mechanism driving the pattern and are more of a reflection of it. I don't focus on that at all, aside from ENSO.

[bluewave]

43 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Very important point...personally, I feel folks get too carried away with SST maps because although somewhat of a feedback can develop to a degree, they are not the primary mechanism driving the pattern and are more of a reflection of it. I don't focus on that at all, aside from ENSO.

The WPAC to the east of Japan is different from the EPAC since the Kuroshio Current like the Gulf Stream waters are certainly warm enough to cause a feedback process.

But the wam blob off the West Coast during the 2010s was the result of the forced pattern emanating in the subtropical or tropical WPAC . So once the fall pattern in 2019 shifted the warm blob easily disappeared. This is why 19-20 wasn’t a repeat of 13-14 like some were speculating about that fall. So more remotely forced.

The WPAC warm pool is much more stable and longer lasting since both the forcing and SST feedback are at play for pattern maintenance. This is why the Aleutian ridge and Southeast ridge have become such dominant features over the years. 
 

[George001]

2 hours ago, snowman19 said:

“The next few days will see a polar vortex strengthen due to less solar radiation. However, to date it seems temporary with a zonal deceleration towards December. The eQBO maintains a weak polar vortex, but without support from the EPflux with Eddys momentum and heat fluxes, it will be difficult to get cold in the mid-latitudes. In this case, the MJO or tropical convention will play a key role in the dynamics of heat fluxes in the polar vortex if it propagates towards the Pacific with good amplitude in December.
A W1 pattern over the Pacific seems likely with December. Obviously, if the MJO does not propagate over the Pacific Ocean, there will be no convergent heat fluxes that make the PV weak, and this will be a problem.”:
 

 

“A negative QBO phase always lifts hopes for mid-latitude winter cold enthusiasts, owing to its influence on the stratospheric PV.

But the QBO's links to surface weather are not simple.

Perhaps surprisingly, during La Niña a -QBO is warmer than a +QBO in early winter in N Europe”:

 

 

 

 

 

below normal temps for New England in the La Niña/-QBO composite….. sign me up 

[snowman19]

On 10/27/2025 at 11:38 AM, GaWx said:

The IOD will almost certainly still rebound sharply by winter as it did in those other 3 cases since 2010 as we’ve been in a +IOD regime in recent years and IOD almost always bottoms by this time of year:

Yea all IOD events, positive or negative always neutralize during winter but this is one is quite the milestone, strongest -IOD event since 2000….