2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

This has been the pattern over the last decade. Early start to the season followed by a lull from late August into early September. Followed by a very strong late September to late October. So very challenging to get a low ACE season anymore with the record Atlantic SSTs and these historic RI and so many Cat 4-5 hurricanes. 

It kind of mirrors the impact CC is having on the cold season, whereas as have seen a greater incidence of classic blocking patterns during the shoulder seasons, opposed to the heart of it.

[snowman19]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow...he is aggressive.
Loves 2013 and 2014.

I can see 2013, 2014 though? Lol That was +ENSO and ++PDO

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1 Strongest -IOD of the 21st century
 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I can see 2013, 2014 though? Lol That was +ENSO and ++PDO

I think he was more just focusing on that due to the +TNH/strong easterly QBO aspect....but yea, I'm not using it beause it was +ENSO. It is about as good of a QBO analog as you can get.

[bluewave]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It kind of mirrors the impact CC is having on the cold season, whereas as have seen a greater incidence of classic blocking patterns during the shoulder seasons, opposed to the heart of it.

Even before we get to the cold season these strong -NAOs are still finding a way to link up with the Southeast ridge or WAR. The storm for this week was originally forecast to be a coastal storm track. But it has shifted to a warmer cutter track to our west. In the old days a -NAO +PNA would nearly always result in a classic coastal storm track since there wouldn’t have been a Southeast ridge or WAR. 

New run -NAO linking up with the WAR

Old run no WAR

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

19 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Even before we get to the cold season these strong -NAOs are still finding a way to link up with the Southeast ridge or WAR. The storm for this week was originally forecast to be a coastal storm track. But it has shifted to a warmer cutter track to our west. In the old days a -NAO +PNA would nearly always result in a classic coastal storm track since there wouldn’t have been a Southeast ridge or WAR. 

New run -NAO linking up with the WAR

Old run no WAR

 

 

I don't think the last coastal that we had did that.

[snowman19]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think the last coastal that we had did that.

Wouldn’t you consider that one more of a subtropical storm rather than a purely extratropical one though? It definitely had subtropical characteristics 

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't think the last coastal that we had did that.

The issue with the last coastal is that it remained strung out with two weaker low centers. So even during the peak of winter it still probably would have been more of a high elevation interior event. Not enough deepening to prevent mixing issues near the coast.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

The issue with the last coastal is that it remained strung out with two weaker low centers. So even during the peak of winter it still probably would have been more of a high elevation interior event. Not enough deepening to prevent mixing issues near the coast.

I disagree; the antecedent airmass was great. I'm not trying to steal anyone's CC...just saying, that last one would have been a big snow event in mid winter.

[bluewave]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I disagree; the antecedent airmass was great. I'm not trying to steal anyone's CC...just saying, that last one would have been a big snow event in mid winter.

The flow was ENE here near the coast so it would have pulled in too much warm air at the start. The lack of strong deepening would have meant that the coast couldn’t cool down enough at the tail end of the storm for a significant shift to snow. But interior areas would have done well. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The flow was ENE here near the coast so it would have pulled in too much warm air at the start. The lack of strong deepening would have meant that the coast couldn’t cool down enough at the tail end of the storm for a significant shift to snow. But interior areas would have done well. 

Well, you said mid winter....in December, sure....but mid season (ie Jan-Feb), I'm sure there would have been some mixing along the immediate coast...def. big issues on the coast, but did you see the band over SE MA?? That would have been a heavy pasting. There spots in se MA that had 6-7" of rain.

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, you said mid winter....in December, sure....but mid season (ie Jan-Feb), I'm sure there would have been some mixing along the immediate coast...def. big issues on the coast, but did you see the band over SE MA?? That would have been a heavy pasting. There spots in se MA that had 6-7" of rain.

I was talking about coastal sections from NJ out across LI. I agree about a heavy wet snow potential somewhere on the more inland side of that heavy rainfall zone in SE MA. Just a little latitude in a marginal setup makes a big difference.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, bluewave said:

I was talking about coastal sections from NJ out across LI. I agree about a heavy wet snow potential somewhere on the more inland side of that heavy rainfall zone in SE MA. Just a little latitude in a marginal setup makes a big difference.

Oh, agree then. I forget you are coming from a northern mid atl perspective sometimes.

[bluewave]

14 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weeklies out 6 weeks for E US:

- Coldest 1st 2 weeks of any run (see below) for that period thanks to a combo of an impressive +PNA and impressive ascending -NAO, which should it verify closely would be coldest for E US overall since the similarly chilly 2012 for Oct 27-Nov 9. For those curious, that period in 2012 actually had a mean near opposite weak -PNA as well as a similarly strong -NAO and weak -AO.
Edit: it had a +EPO like we have now. It had for MJO moderate 2, mod 3, and ended with weak 4/5.

- No long period of mild in sight with weeks 3, 5, and 6 NN and week 4 only barely AN

Week 1 (Oct 27-Nov 2):

 

Week 2 (Nov 3-9):

Noticing the continuing pattern with these cool downs. The coldest departures will be found more to the south closer to where you live as Canada remains very warm relative to their means. Then we are already seeing  a big PAC Jet extension in early November forecasts so expect the temperatures to warm up during the 2nd week of November.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

This has been the pattern over the last decade. Early start to the season followed by a lull from late August into early September. Followed by a very strong late September to late October. So very challenging to get a low ACE season anymore with the record Atlantic SSTs and these historic RI and so many Cat 4-5 hurricanes. 

We didn't get the early start to the season this year. The season was quiet until mid August this year, and was pretty much a one-off (with Erin) until Gabrielle.

[bluewave]

21 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

We didn't get the early start to the season this year. The season was quiet until mid August this year, and was pretty much a one-off (with Erin) until Gabrielle.

I am using the term early season to describe the activity prior to what is considered the late August into early September traditional peak we used to get more often. Erin went Cat 5 on August 16th which is early in the season for Cat 5 development. 

The record SSTs are why we haven’t had any really low ACE seasons since 2013 and 2014. This lead some to speculate  that the AMO was going to shift colder back then.

But instead the Atlantic SSTs reached all warmth over the last decade with the historic run of Cat 4-5 systems.

[LakePaste25]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Even before we get to the cold season these strong -NAOs are still finding a way to link up with the Southeast ridge or WAR. The storm for this week was originally forecast to be a coastal storm track. But it has shifted to a warmer cutter track to our west. In the old days a -NAO +PNA would nearly always result in a classic coastal storm track since there wouldn’t have been a Southeast ridge or WAR. 

New run -NAO linking up with the WAR

Old run no WAR

 

 

not to be too finicky but that new run is not really a classic -nao to begin with. more of a “newfoundland block.” a true bootleg -nao like we’ve seen in recent winters would be the traditional +gph anomalies extending from greenland through the eastern seaboard 

[bluewave]

7 minutes ago, LakePaste25 said:

not to be too finicky but that new run is not really a classic -nao to begin with. more of a “newfoundland block.” a true bootleg -nao like we’ve seen in recent winters would be the traditional +gph anomalies extending from greenland through the eastern seaboard 

It’s coming near the tail end of a -NAO period which began around the 15th. Not really sure how to define a classic -NAO since there have been many versions over the years with blocking near Greenland. It’s just that during the 2020s we are finding more ways for higher latitude blocking to merge with the subtropical ridge especially at storm time.

[MJO812]

2 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wow...he is aggressive.

Loves 2013 and 2014.

 He is banking on a weak PV just like other forecasters. It should be interesting to see if we actually go into a neutral state or a stronger LA Nina.

[FPizz]

1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Oh, agree then. I forget you are coming from a northern mid atl perspective sometimes.

I can count on one hand where the area's he mentioned get all snow from a coastal.  It is pretty rare. You are correct with what you originally said. 

[bluewave]

38 minutes ago, FPizz said:

I can count on one hand where the area's he mentioned get all snow from a coastal.  It is pretty rare. You are correct with what you originally said. 

No it wasn’t prior to 2018-2019. Maybe since you live west of I-95 you are unfamiliar with the coastal areas. We had numerous events prior to 2018-2019 which were all or mostly snow. That mid-October storm track would have been mostly rain or mixed near the coastal plain during the winter. Too many storms to count prior to 2018-2019 which were the opposite. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

2017-18 and January 2022 are the only times really that the coastal areas got good snow since the mid-2010s el nino.

But 2009-10 to 2015-16 (if you take out 2011-12 and 2012-13) was a great run for the coastals (this is Atlantic City's snowfall):

2009-2010	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	12.6	8.9	36.6	T	0.0	0.0	0.0	58.1
2010-2011	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	20.9	13.4	3.7	T	0.0	0.0	0.0	38.0

2013-2014	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	3.3	18.8	6.1	15.6	T	0.0	0.0	43.8
2014-2015	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	T	0.4	4.8	9.8	7.4	0.0	0.0	0.0	22.4
2015-2016	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	0.0	16.7	3.9	5.1	1.8	0.0	0.0	27.5

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

Noticing the continuing pattern with these cool downs. The coldest departures will be found more to the south closer to where you live as Canada remains very warm relative to their means. Then we are already seeing  a big PAC Jet extension in early November forecasts so expect the temperatures to warm up during the 2nd week of November.

That’s the nature of a solid +PNA as you know, especially without an accompanying -EPO. There has been a pretty strong +EPO in recent days. Often the coldest anomalies on average tend to be further SE with it often above normal in much of Canada.

 As the Euro Weeklies show, I also expect a warmup after the next 2 weeks. But, in the meantime, as mentioned the E 1/4 of the US is overall progged to have its coldest 10/27-11/9 since 2012 with coldest anomalies centered southern Mid-Atlantic states and SE US.

 Per the EW, a warmup follows but mainly to near normal rather than AN with only week 4 AN and it only slightly AN.

[GaWx]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

This has been the pattern over the last decade. Early start to the season followed by a lull from late August into early September. Followed by a very strong late September to late October. So very challenging to get a low ACE season anymore with the record Atlantic SSTs and these historic RI and so many Cat 4-5 hurricanes. 

2025 ACE:

Through Sept 16th: 39

Sept 17th+: 74 and rising rapidly.

The full season to date ACE is progged to get above the 1991-2020 full season avg of 122 by tonight and then go well above that within the next few days. This very active late season ACE has been the pattern especially in recent La Nina seasons.

 There have been 4 MH with 3 of them occurring since Sept 22!

 

[bluewave]

49 minutes ago, GaWx said:

That’s the nature of a solid +PNA as you know, especially without an accompanying -EPO. There has been a pretty strong +EPO in recent days. Often the coldest anomalies on average tend to be further SE with it often above normal in much of Canada.

 As the Euro Weeklies show, I also expect a warmup after the next 2 weeks. But, in the meantime, as mentioned the E 1/4 of the US is overall progged to have its coldest 10/27-11/9 since 2012 with coldest anomalies centered southern Mid-Atlantic states and SE US.

 Per the EW, a warmup follows but mainly to near normal rather than AN with only week 4 AN and it only slightly AN.

Even with  the +PNA -EPO pattern during January, the coldest departures were displaced further south toward the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast since Canada was so warm. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

31 minutes ago, GaWx said:

2025 ACE:

Through Sept 16th: 39

Sept 17th+: 74 and rising rapidly.

The full season to date ACE is progged to get above the 1991-2020 full season avg of 122 by tonight and then go well above that within the next few days. This very active late season ACE has been the pattern especially in recent La Nina seasons.

 There have been 4 MH with 3 of them occurring since Sept 22!

 

Wait, the 1991-2020 average is only 122? I thought it would be somewhere around 140, considering how active 1995-2005 was.

I guess I can lower the baseline for a hyperactive season to 175. That will give us 13:

1            2005      247.65

2            1933      235.785

3            1893      231.0738

4            1995      227.5513

5            1950      227.1413

6            2004      226.94

7            1926      225.7788

8            2017      224.8775           

9            1961      196.95

10          1998      181.8838

11          2020      180.3725

12          1955      178.585

13          1999      177

[GaWx]

1 minute ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Wait, the 1991-2020 average is only 122? I thought it would be somewhere around 140, considering how active 1995-2005 was.

I guess I can lower the baseline for a hyperactive season to 175. That will give us 13:

1            2005      247.65

2            1933      235.785

3            1893      231.0738

4            1995      227.5513

5            1950      227.1413

6            2004      226.94

7            1926      225.7788

8            2017      224.8775           

9            1961      196.95

10          1998      181.8838

11          2020      180.3725

12          1955      178.585

13          1999      177

  1995-2005 did average ~160. But outside of those years, 10 seasons (1991-4, 2006-7, 2009, and 2013-5) were <80.

 If I were classifying what’s hyperactive, I’d add some years that were <175 during a much lower avg recorded ACE era such as 1886’s 166, 1899’s 151, 1906’s 162, 1916’s 144, 1932’s 170, and 1955’s 158. Even 1880’s 131 should be considered imho as it was way higher than all preceding years other than 1878 back to 1851.

[MJO812]

Steve D winter forecast
https://nynjpaweather.com/winter-forecast-for-december-2025-through-february-2026/

[donsutherland1]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I can see 2013, 2014 though? Lol That was +ENSO and ++PDO

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1 Strongest -IOD of the 21st century
 

I believe his analog mix provides further illustration of the subjective nature of choosing analogs. There is no one "right way" to do so. He places a lot of weight on the QBO. The selection of 2014-15 suggests that the QBO outweighed other variables such as ENSO. Others use different considerations.

Can analogs be constructed objectively with consistently reasonable performance? I don't know. That's part of the reason I am trying an ENSO-Teleconnections approach based on RMSE and will weigh its outcome against my own winter thoughts (to be posted mid-November). If there is promise, I'll re-run the exercise for spring and summer. 

 

[GaWx]

4 hours ago, snowman19 said:

I can see 2013, 2014 though? Lol That was +ENSO and ++PDO

Edit: @40/70 Benchmark @bluewave @donsutherland1 Strongest -IOD of the 21st century
 

The IOD will almost certainly still rebound sharply by winter as it did in those other 3 cases since 2010 as we’ve been in a +IOD regime in recent years and IOD almost always bottoms by this time of year:

[brooklynwx99]

7 hours ago, snowman19 said:

We have reached the point where people using 2013 as an SST analog (SST analog) have an issue. Not commenting on any other factors being used as an analog to that year, just SSTs. But as it stands now, we are not even in the ballpark of going into a Victoria mode PDO, not even close, whereas we were into a Victoria mode PDO by the beginning of November back in 2013….

we might as well mention the cooling of the majority of the N PAC basin, especially near Japan and SW of the Aleutian Islands