2025-2026 ENSO

[snowman19]

17 hours ago, so_whats_happening said:

Remarkably similar 2 month period with some probably pretty important differences.

One important difference is the AAM. Last year at this time it was in full on El Nino (positive). This year, it is and has been very strongly negative 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

One important difference is the AAM. Last year at this time it was in full on El Nino (positive). This year, it is and has been very strongly negative 

Another important difference is the character of La Nina....hard pressed to find many weak/east based Nina events that occured during -QBO that didn't feature some blocking. Although 2005-2006 was pretty mild mid season, it was wintry in December and featured big blocking in March.

[chris21]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

One important difference is the AAM. Last year at this time it was in full on El Nino (positive). This year, it is and has been very strongly negative 

Could lead to more blocking.

[snowman19]

Another important difference is the character of La Nina....hard pressed to find many weak/east based Nina events that occured during -QBO that didn't feature some blocking. Although 2005-2006 was pretty mild mid season, it was wintry in December and featured big blocking in March.

It would not call this a pure east-based La Niña. Not CP/Modoki, but this does not look like a 2017 evolution, which was a true east-based event

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

It would not call this a pure east-based La Niña. Not CP/Modoki, but this does not look like a 2017 evolution, which was a true east-based event

The forecast winter EMI from JAMSTEC is very 2018 like...along with 1995 and 2021.

The newest El Niño Modoki Index (EMI) guidance from JAMSTEC has also remained fairly consisted in it's depiction of an EMI value of around -.20 to -.30 during the boreal winter season.

 

 

This range is similar to the EMI analogs of 1995-1996, 2017-2018 and 2021-2022, which is supported by the similarity in both the placement (near 140 longitude) and the intensity of the respective subsurface cold pool analogs relative to 2025.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm in no way implying a 1995 repeat...I understand how different the western PAC is and how much we have warmed...I get it. Just saying ENSO in a vacuum is a decent match.

[mitchnick]

BAM wx video regarding winter worth a listen imho.

 

[anthonymm]

8 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

100%.

This is why I am so confident that my area will see more snowfall, even if it's a bit warmer. I do not feel warmth will be prohibitive for the vast majority of the season...at least not at this latiitude.

So to be clear, last year was too suppressed for nyc, but next will be too much se ridging for us. Cool, cool we always lose. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

On 10/9/2025 at 5:25 PM, so_whats_happening said:

Remarkably similar 2 month period with some probably pretty important differences.

That's really about as close of a match as you ever are going to get, the only place in the world that was really different was south of South America.. I think after the Solar Flares in May 2024, the Earth went into a pattern. A lot of this is described as +AO, but that pattern continues now going into the cold season I think.  The 4-corners High pressure wasn't as strong this Summer as last, and that did show tendency to become +PNA last Winter, so maybe not so much +PNA this Winter, but 24-25 is a good analog going forward. 

[snowman19]

[bluewave]

New JMA has Greenland to Eastern Canada blocking linking up with Southeast ridge in the means. Variable PNA with a ridge off the California Coast and an Aleutian ridge. Active storm track through the Great Lakes and a quiet Southern stream. Several elements related to the dominant pattern in recent years.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/zpcmap.php

 

 

 

[snowman19]

@Bluewave This may end up being the strongest storm/low in history for the Bering Sea….almost 950mb

[qg_omega]

5 hours ago, bluewave said:

New JMA has Greenland to Eastern Canada blocking linking up with Southeast ridge in the means. Variable PNA with a ridge off the California Coast and an Aleutian ridge. Active storm track through the Great Lakes and a quiet Southern stream. Several elements related to the dominant pattern in recent years.

https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/wmc/products/model/map/7mE/map1/zpcmap.php

 

 

 

more blocking too far south linking up with the SE ridge, rinse and repeat 

[GaWx]

 Some of what I’ve learned about IOD index history:

- Tends to be strongest + during strong El Niño with peak a little earlier

- Vast majority of months -IOD 1870-1960 with gradual decrease of -IOD domination since then, especially last 20 years

- 1870-1913: 3 of the only 4 years with consecutive +IOD months were during strong El Niños of 1877, 1896, and 1902. The other (1884) was when it was borderline warm neutral/wk Nino preceding wk Nino.

- Highest IOD month 1870-1960 was only +0.558 (1877)!

- But since 1960, there have been ~34 months >+0.558!

- Longest +IOD string of months 1870-1960 was only 5 months (Nino years 1877 and 1920)

- 1961-present there were ~21 of the 5+ month +IOD streaks

- 1961-2022: longest +IOD streak 23 mos 2018-20 followed by 21 mos 2023-4!

- Record high IOD: +1.279 (Nov of 1997)

- Thus for whatever reason, the IOD has been rising over the last 100+ years and especially the last 20 years. Is GW leading the W Indian Ocean to warm more quickly than the E Indian Ocean? If so, why?

 I’m using the table at the link below for IOD back to 1870:

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data

@snowman19

[snowman19]

 Some of what I’ve learned about IOD index history:
- Tends to be strongest + during strong El Niño with peak a little earlier
- Vast majority of months -IOD 1870-1960 with gradual decrease of -IOD domination since then, especially last 20 years
- 1870-1913: 3 of the only 4 years with consecutive +IOD months were during strong El Niños of 1877, 1896, and 1902. The other (1884) was when it was borderline warm neutral/wk Nino preceding wk Nino.
- Highest IOD month 1870-1960 was only +0.558 (1877)!
- But since 1960, there have been ~34 months >+0.558!
- Longest +IOD string of months 1870-1960 was only 5 months (Nino years 1877 and 1920)
- 1961-present there were ~21 of the 5+ month +IOD streaks
- 1961-2022: longest +IOD streak 23 mos 2018-20 followed by 21 mos 2023-4!
- Record high IOD: +1.279 (Nov of 1997)
- Thus for whatever reason, the IOD has been rising over the last 100+ years and especially the last 20 years. Is GW leading the W Indian Ocean to warm more quickly than the E Indian Ocean? If so, why?
 I’m using the table at the link below for IOD back to 1870:
https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data
[mention=13098]snowman19[/mention]

This current -IOD is the strongest in 17+ years