2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Yep . 

Oh, boy...this is going to get snowman to go off and tear Cohen a new one after he's done with JB

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm sure a few others will chime in on that, too....."Perhaps Siberian snow had some influence in previous decades, but in this new, warmer climate it doesn't seem to matter" (insert peer reviewed article citing the effect of greenhouses gases on increased tri state suicides, and imagery of blood-red water east of Japan).

[chubbs]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

PHL average winter temps

1985-86 and before: 34.1

1986-87 to 1996-97: 35.6

1997-98 to 2014-15: 35.9

2015-16 to present: 38.7

2015-16 to present matches Richmond's average winter temp 1951-1980 - 38.4. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, chubbs said:

2015-16 to present matches Richmond's average temp 1951-1980 - 38.4. 

Boston 2015-2016 to present is probably similar to 1951-1980 NYC or Philly.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

PHL average winter temps

1985-86 and before: 34.1

1986-87 to 1996-97: 35.6

1997-98 to 2014-15: 35.9

2015-16 to present: 38.7

I was happy for you guys back in 2009-2010 even though the jackpot that winter was to my south. You were able to get that outcome due to how cold the CONUS was that winter. Needed the 27th coldest CONUS winter at 30.70° to get such heavy snows a far south as the DC to Philly metros.

Since the big shift warmer in 2015-2016, this last 2024-2025 relatively colder winter was 34.05° and the 27th warmest. So a colder winter during the post 1994-2015 snowy era was much warmer than a cold winter back in that era. 

The fall patterns were precursors to both winters. October 2009 was the 4th coldest winter since 1895 for the CONUS. October 2024 was the 2nd warmest on record. So another metric of how much warmer the climate across the seasons has warmed since 2015-2016.

 

 

[chubbs]

15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Boston 2015-2016 to present is probably similar to 1951-1980 NYC or Philly.

Boston 2015/16-now, 34.7, matches BWI 1951-80, 34.6. 

[bluewave]

We are making some small progress. An actual strong -NAO pattern not linking with the Southeast ridge for a change. I will be happy if we can at least get a few of these during the winter to make things more interesting than the several winters. But it has been easier to do more in the off season recently.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

We are making some small progress. An actual strong -NAO pattern not linking with the Southeast ridge for a change. I will be happy if we can at least get a few of these during the winter to make things more interesting than the several winters. But it has been easier to do more in the off season recently.

 

Yea, the trick has been pulling this off during the actual cold season....the shoulder seasons of fall and spring have been more prone to traditional blocking patterns, likely owed to the shorter wave lengths rendering Rosby waves less vulnerable to Pac jet intrusions.

[snowman19]

36 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are making some small progress. An actual strong -NAO pattern not linking with the Southeast ridge for a change. I will be happy if we can at least get a few of these during the winter to make things more interesting than the several winters. But it has been easier to do more in the off season recently.

 

Seems like it happens every year for the last several….this shows up in October/November, never to be heard from again until late March/April

[GaWx]

43 minutes ago, bluewave said:

We are making some small progress. An actual strong -NAO pattern not linking with the Southeast ridge for a change. I will be happy if we can at least get a few of these during the winter to make things more interesting than the several winters. But it has been easier to do more in the off season recently.

 

 There’s been no correlation of -NAO in October and DJF at least since 2009:

 Since then 2009, 2012-4, 2019, 2021, and 2023 all had a strong (<-1) NAO in Oct. Of these, only 2009 had a -NAO for the subsequent winter. Octs have had a -NAO leaning since 2009 while winters have leaned +NAO. Actually, since 1980, there have been only 6 sub -0.25 DJF NAOs, all within ~2 years of a solar minimum.

 And despite the -NAO leaning of Oct, check out the sharp change overall to a +NAO leaning in Nov since 2009! Something seems to change pretty drastically between Oct and Nov related to the NAO (at least since 2009). And then the winters have been mainly +NAO as I already said. Do you or does anyone else know what has driven this?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

[bluewave]

Just now, GaWx said:

 There’s been no correlation of -NAO in October and DJF at least since 2009:

 Since then 2009, 2012-4, 2019, 2021, and 2023 all had a strong (<-1) NAO in Oct. Of these, only 2009 had a -NAO for the subsequent winter. Octs have had a -NAO leaning since 2009 while winters have leaned +NAO.

 And despite the -NAO leaning of Oct, check out the sharp change overall to a +NAO leaning in Nov since 2009! Something seems to change pretty drastically between Oct and Nov related to the NAO (at least since 2009). And then the winters have been mainly +NAO as I already said. Do you or does anyone else know what has driven this?

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

There hasn’t been any correlation with the NAO from one month to the other with how wild the swings have become in recent years between highs and lows. 

[snowman19]

[TheClimateChanger]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm sure a few others will chime in on that, too....."Perhaps Siberian snow had some influence in previous decades, but in this new, warmer climate it doesn't seem to matter" (insert peer reviewed article citing the effect of greenhouses gases on increased tri state suicides, and imagery of blood-red water east of Japan).

Increased Siberian snow cover is, in part, a consequence of a warming Arctic: Enhanced Arctic moisture transport toward Siberia in autumn revealed by tagged moisture transport model experiment | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

[jm1220]

2 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Increased Siberian snow cover is, in part, a consequence of a warming Arctic: Enhanced Arctic moisture transport toward Siberia in autumn revealed by tagged moisture transport model experiment | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

And it makes intuitive sense that more Siberian snow creates a contrast with the warm W PAC near Japan and enhances the Pacific jet. The warm mid latitudes may be altering the Hadley Cell which some have pointed out. So to me it makes sense how these factors work together to ruin our pattern where I live for snow. I don’t like it but the planet and its feedbacks don’t care what I want. Guess I can buy a cabin in ME for the winter where there are still plenty of very snowy winters left to look forward to.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Increased Siberian snow cover is, in part, a consequence of a warming Arctic: Enhanced Arctic moisture transport toward Siberia in autumn revealed by tagged moisture transport model experiment | npj Climate and Atmospheric Science

I know...was sarcastically operating off of the premise that the SAI is correlated to winter. I wasn't refuting anthing...don't worry, I'm not trying to steal your CC.

[bluewave]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the trick has been pulling this off during the actual cold season....the shoulder seasons of fall and spring have been more prone to traditional blocking patterns, likely owed to the shorter wave lengths rendering Rosby waves less vulnerable to Pac jet intrusions.

Yeah, must be the really strong subtropical winter ridge expansion in conjunction with the faster Pacific Jet leading to all these winter into early spring -NAO -AO Southeast ridge link ups.

Been noticing that during other seasons like we are seeing next few days we can avoid the Southeast ridge link ups at times.

The last really solid -NAO -AO block that delivered a classic KU event was 1-31-21. The Jan 22 events were mostly Pacific driven with +PNA -EPO +AO +NAO. 

 

[EasternLI]

The negative IOD is kind of interesting. This is a good article about the IOD and it's effects. The relationship is modeled to weaken over time in the future with some changes to the sst gradients. However, for now and when you eliminate other factors. -IOD seemingly favors -NAO in and of itself if it were the dominating feature. 

 

Climate change alters the Indian Ocean Dipole and weakens its North Atlantic teleconnection

https://www.nature.com/articles/s43247-025-02131-5

 

Quote

In the HIST period, the northern hemisphere MSLP response to the IOD (with ENSO neutral) resembles the positive Arctic Oscillation with a significant band of low pressure at high latitudes (Fig. 5a); there is also a positive NAO in the Atlantic sector. The pIOD/nIOD favours the positive/negative NAO phase. In the meridional wind field (Fig. 5b), a Rossby wave train of alternating positive and negative nodes extends across the North Pacific into the North Atlantic/European sector, representing a tropospheric teleconnection pathway. This CMIP6 IOD-NAO teleconnection pattern strikingly resembles that seen in 2019/2020 (their Fig. 3), suggesting that the 2019/2020 pattern represents the standard response to the IOD and that such events could therefore recur in the present climate.

 

Consistent with the 2019/2020 study, we also find a stratospheric teleconnection pathway; the IOD affects the strength of the stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) in HIST, which in turn influences the NAO. For pIOD minus nIOD in ENSO-neutral years, the SPV and NAO significantly increase (p = 0.01) for both December (3.9 m/s; 2.1 hPa) and DJF (2.4 m/s; 1.8hPa). The IOD, therefore, appears to partly drive the NAO via the polar vortex, similar to the stratospheric teleconnection pathway driven by ENSO. The DJF shifts for SPV and NAO are roughly double what would occur if the teleconnection were active in December alone, suggesting that the stratospheric pathway prolongs the teleconnection beyond early winter as the IOD decays.