2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

More (2M temps) from brand new Euro winter outlook:

Oct (brand new) is somewhat mild in much of US similar to Sept outlook with mainly ~2-3.5 F AN (vs 1993-2016 base) in much of the US and mainly ~2 F AN much of NE US and ~2.5-3 AN much of SE US with best chance closer to 1 AN N tier from Wash state to Lakes, where it cooled ~1F from Sept outlook:

Sept outlook was similarly fairly mild in most of the US:

 

For comparison, here was last Oct’s outlook for DJF 24-5: was actually slightly warmer in the NE and we know that verified to be much too warm most of US

 

Actual DJF 2024-5: much colder than Oct Euro forecast!

 

Was Oct ‘24 the warmest Oct. DJF forecast for the NE back to 2017? No, it actually was this one for 2020-1, which like 2024-5 verified to be significantly too warm most of US:

Actual DJF 2020-1: significantly colder than Oct Euro forecast!

@snowman19

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks for the reminder!

Here are the last two runs of Euro DJF H5 maps to compare:

October (just released): very La Ninaish…hopefully this will be wrong just like 2024-5 was! Most negative anomalies in N Hem west of Hudson Bay (Ninaish):

 

September run for DJF: didn’t have as strong of an Aleutian ridge; E US ridge similar:

Looks like a reversion to the mean. The Aleutian ridge and Southeast ridge have become our dominant winter pattern. So the model may just be defaulting to recent climatology.
 

 

[michsnowfreak]

17 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

I believe any transition to structurally lower snowfall at Detroit is at least several decades away. 35° or above winter warmth will likely remain very uncommon for at least the next 20 or more years.

I dont think we'll ever average a DJF temp of 35°, certainly not in the lifetime of anyone currently living. Will probably hit it at a few times, but never average it.

[michsnowfreak]

10 hours ago, jm1220 said:

Guess he's from Little Rock since that's the bullseye for the other Armageddon zone? 

LOL I was going to post the exact same thing. Must be from Arkansas. Guess we somehow dont get snow in Michigan while they're buried in Arkansas 

[michsnowfreak]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s my point. It was easier back during the colder climate era to pull off a series of epic years like that. I agree that it was an amazing run even during that era. But the colder climate made it possible.

I am sure the posters around Boston would be happy seeing a winter or two during the remainder of the 2020s bouncing back closer to the long term average in the low 40s.

How did a colder climate make it possible? Remember places further north are different than NYC. For those in colder climes its more about patterns. You can easily see less snow in a colder winter or more snow in a milder winter.

[GaWx]

New (Oct) Euro precip anomaly forecast for DJF: very slightly wetter in NE/SE and very slightly drier part of Midwest vs Sept outlook and similar to Oct ‘24 outlook for last winter/La Ninaish NN much of E US but BN signal deep SE with lack of dominant ST jet

 

Sept ‘25 outlook for DJF:

Last Oct precip for last winter:

[donsutherland1]

15 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I dont think we'll ever average a DJF temp of 35°, certainly not in the lifetime of anyone currently living. Will probably hit it at a few times, but never average it.

There were 3 prior cases: 1881-1882, 1889-1890, 1931-1932. 2023-2024 (34.8° was a near miss). Suburbs are cooler. 

In the larger picture, I don't think Detroit and its vicinity have any worries that winter will essentially become unrecognizable for decades to come. 

 

[anthonymm]

12 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Big time +EPO this October.. models are showing it for the 2nd half of the month. EPO carries the same sign very well from October to January-February

This winter is looking more and more like a worst case scenario for mid atlantic up to nyc (not sure about sne that feels borderline right now). Could be another 2022-2023 for these regions.

[bluewave]

2 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

How did a colder climate make it possible? Remember places further north are different than NYC. For those in colder climes it’s more about patterns. You can easily see less snow in a colder winter or more snow in a milder winter.

The entire I-95 corridor from DC to Boston has been in the same boat. This has been the lowest 7 year combined snowfall total for this area in recorded history. It’s a function of warmer winters and warmer storm tracks.

Past instances with low 7 year snowfall totals like which ended in 1992 were more a function of drier winters and not the record warmth of the last decade. The following years with historic snowfall from 92-93 to 95-96 were during a much colder era which no longer exists.

So it’s unlikely without a major volcanic eruption that we see such a strong rebound in snowfall during the reminder of the 2020s. I would be happy just to see even a smaller rebound off these record 7 year lows in at least one of the remaining 2020s winters.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s my point. It was easier back during the colder climate era to pull off a series of epic years like that. I agree that it was an amazing run even during that era. But the colder climate made it possible.

I am sure the posters around Boston would be happy seeing a winter or two during the remainder of the 2020s bouncing back closer to the long term average in the low 40s.

My point is I'm not convinced we won't see that again. If anything, it's been more common the last 30 years...we just did it 11 years ago. What was the return rate on it pre 1994? We don't know because it had never happened. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My point is I'm not convinced we won't see that again. If anything, it's been more common the last 30 years...we just did it 11 years ago. What was the return rate on it pre 1994? We don't know because it had never happened. 

But we haven’t done it since the winters shifted warmer in 15-16 followed by the warmer storm track shift in 18-19. So 11 years ago and 30 years ago featured a much different winter global circulation pattern with the colder temperatures which made those outcomes possible.

Pre-1994 was a colder and more stable climate era which favored snowfall outcomes focused more toward the midrange with fewer big highs and big lows for snowfall.

Especially near NYC Metro, snowfall has become an all or nothing proposition since 1994 with many years well above and well below which was common prior to that era. We have seen nearly no snowfall seasons near the mid range which was common prior to 1994.

So while we experienced all the record snowfall from 1994 to 2015, we didn’t pay as much attention to the very low years in the mix and lack of midrange years.

We were still able to hold onto great snowfall outcomes from 2016 to 2018 around NYC with the storm tracks remaining cold. But just not quite the level of the pre 15-16 era due to the record warmth which became more common starting in December 2015 with went +13.0.

Since 18-19 the continuing much warmer winters and added much warmer storm tracks have featured a dominant cutter, hugger, and suppressed Southern Stream storm tracks. This has lead to the record low I-95 snowfall since then. Most seasons have been much below with very few well above and midrange winters around NYC Metro.