2025-2026 ENSO

[FPizz]

54 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Right. And those ups and downs during the month create the average.  Considering the ridge location this summer to Harrisburg, those numbers are no big deal for June and July and August will negate much of the AN anomalies. I don't know what Phl had since it's not mby.

Philly has double digit more 90 degree days (17!) than Trenton which is only 30 or so miles away.  Their highs have been off according to even Mets on another Philly centric board.

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I am using current climate numbers to determine above or below normal just as previous NWS records established above or below normal readings. That's their protocol. If you want to cherry pick by using or considering different periods to push an agenda, that's fine. But don't be shocked or appalled when someone else points out that's what you're doing. Like it or not, the numbers I posted for MDT are what will be used by the NWS. 

LOL at using hot button terms like agenda, shocked, and appalled. Try taking a step back and just looking at the actual data instead putting a strong emotional charge on it. Your area is further south than where the strongest Northeast warmth has occurred this summer. 

MDT is currently at an average summer temperature of 75.9°. That is the 13th warmest average summer temperature. You guys should slip back several spots with the cooler pattern to close out the summer. The current departure is only +0.7°. So the actual summer will finish up with top 20 warmth even if the departure isn’t that high. 
 

 

 

[snowman19]

This is the strongest -PMM we have seen in some time. This is only going to enhance La Niña development. The new run on the normally severely warm biased BOM model has begun a cave to a La Niña now

“Highlights

•
The PMM index defined in this study removes the signals of ENSO more effectively.
•
A positive PMM is weakly related to El Niño, while a negative PMM is more convincingly related to La Niña.”

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169809524000917

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

LOL at using hot button terms like agenda, shocked, and appalled. Try taking a step back and just looking at the actual data instead putting a strong emotional charge on it. Your area is further south than where the strongest Northeast warmth has occurred this summer. 

MDT is currently at an average summer temperature of 75.9°. That is the 13th warmest average summer temperature. You guys should slip back several spots with the cooler pattern to close out the summer. The current departure is only +0.7°. So the actual summer will finish up with top 20 warmth even if the departure isn’t that high. 
 

 

 

MDT's summer records start in 1992. That means, including this year, there are 34 years of summer records. Assuming your calculation is correct, a "top 20th warmth" is just like saying the 14th coolest. So why didn't you say it like that? I think you made my point. 

[Cobalt]

49 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If you want to cherry pick by using or considering different periods to push an agenda, that's fine.

Are you telling me that this wording

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Odd. Harrisburg (MDT) is already -1.6 for August thru yesterday and will end the month much lower. June was only +1.3 and July +2.5. The 3 summer months could easily end averaging barely AN.

Wasn't meant to push any sort of agenda that this Summer was not as warm as others claim? bluewave brought up that you're comparing against the warmest 30 year average, which is a completely valid criticism. From what I can tell June's "only +1.3" is 13th warmest out of 136 years.

Words like "only" or "barely AN" are only applicable if we isolate the current 30 year average as the baseline for absolute warmth or cold. That is way more narrow of a scope than what bluewave did, comparing to the entire range of years. Comparing against 136 years is a way better benchmark than just 30.

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

MDT's summer records start in 1992. That means, including this year, there are 34 years of summer records. Assuming your calculation is correct, a "top 20th warmth" is just like saying the 14th coolest. So why didn't you say it like that? I think you made my point. 

I was using the extended climate record for your area which started back in 1888.

Past Climatological Periods At Middletown-Harrisburg Area in Middletown-Harrisburg, PA (MDTthr)
Period of record: 1888-07-01 to 2025-08-25 (current) - 138 Year(s)

 

Time Series Summary for Middletown-Harrisburg Area, PA (ThreadEx) 20 warmest summers dense rank sorting by temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2020	77.9	0
2	1966	77.6	0
3	2016	77.3	0
4	2021	77.1	0
5	2024	76.9	0
6	2010	76.8	0
7	2022	76.7	0
-	1999	76.7	0
8	2019	76.5	0
-	2005	76.5	0
9	1991	76.4	0
10	1900	76.2	0
11	1943	76.1	0
12	2002	76.0	0
13	2025	75.9	6
14	2011	75.6	0
-	1995	75.6	0
15	1994	75.5	0
16	2018	75.4	0
-	1955	75.4	0
-	1949	75.4	0
17	1993	75.3	0
18	2012	75.2	0
-	2006	75.2	0
-	1988	75.2	0
19	1974	75.0	0
-	1973	75.0	0
-	1939	75.0	0
20	2015	74.9	0
-	1952	74.9	0

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I was using the extended climate record for your area which started back in 1888.

Past Climatological Periods At Middletown-Harrisburg Area in Middletown-Harrisburg, PA (MDTthr)
Period of record: 1888-07-01 to 2025-08-25 (current) - 138 Year(s)

 

Time Series Summary for Middletown-Harrisburg Area, PA (ThreadEx) 20 warmest summers dense rank sorting by temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2020	77.9	0
2	1966	77.6	0
3	2016	77.3	0
4	2021	77.1	0
5	2024	76.9	0
6	2010	76.8	0
7	2022	76.7	0
-	1999	76.7	0
8	2019	76.5	0
-	2005	76.5	0
9	1991	76.4	0
10	1900	76.2	0
11	1943	76.1	0
12	2002	76.0	0
13	2025	75.9	6
14	2011	75.6	0
-	1995	75.6	0
15	1994	75.5	0
16	2018	75.4	0
-	1955	75.4	0
-	1949	75.4	0
17	1993	75.3	0
18	2012	75.2	0
-	2006	75.2	0
-	1988	75.2	0
19	1974	75.0	0
-	1973	75.0	0
-	1939	75.0	0
20	2015	74.9	0
-	1952	74.9	0

 

 

 

Different locations over a 138 year period is far from a fair comparison. It was literally a different old around Harrisburg 20 years+ ago, let alone 138 years.

This reminds me of an old friend of mine. When we were in college and I used to go out "carousing" looking for women, he would always remind me that "if a girl doesn't meet your standards, lower them." That’s what you're doing by changing the standards by which to determine temp anomalies. Why don't we go back further then and use ice core samples? We look pretty cool to me based on times further back. But you'll have your reasons I'm sure. 

I've made my point, so anything further is unnecessary. 

 

[Cobalt]

54 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That’s what you're doing by changing the standards by which to determinetemp anomalies.

Is that not exactly you're doing by using just the years within the 1991-2020 average and nothing else? If not changing the standards, it's focusing only on the ones that push your notions. You're dropping 100 of the 136 years of records because they make this year's averages seem warmer by comparison.

Would you look back on June 2025's +1.3 as a "cooler" month just because the 2001-2030 averages might place it as a -0.2, even if it ranks 20th warmest of 136 years? 

[winter_warlock]

On 8/20/2025 at 4:59 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Winter NAO prediction based on May-Sept N. Atlantic SSTAs will probably come in weakly positive. 

Add to it that we are in the period of 0 to +4 years after a Solar Max, which has a +0.2 Winter NAO correlation, or 55% of the time. 

Then the NAO has run positive 6 straight months, and the AO has run positive 5 straight months.. that rolls forward to a +0.2 Winter +NAO correlation. 

All-in-all, that gives us about a +0.3-4 correlation right now for +NAO Winter (DJFM), or 60-62% chance of happening, based on those 3 indicators. Because of the decadal cycle, and 83% of Winter months have been +NAO since 11-12, I would say the current odds are more like 65% chance it is a +NAO Winter. 

 Doesn't matter. I've seen us have a big -NAO and still get absolutely nothing out of it. And I've seen us have a +NAO and us get snowstorms out of it.  I think the NAO   doesn't matter as much as it's hyped.. in my opinion 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Is that not exactly you're doing by using just the years within the 1991-2020 average and nothing else? If not changing the standards, it's focusing only on the ones that push your notions. You're dropping 100 of the 136 years of records because they make this year's averages seem warmer by comparison.

Would you look back on June 2025's +1.3 as a "cooler" month just because the 2001-2030 averages might place it as a -0.2, even if it ranks 20th warmest of 136 years? 

No. First, the 136 are readings from different locations and elevations than MDT with a period that includes very rural times. My family used to drive from MD to Wilkes-Barre every summer in the mid and late 1960's, driving through Harrisburg to get there, and it looks nothing like it did then. I can only imagine how much more rural it was before the 1960's. Second, my original post said MDT would likely end up slightly AN under the current climate period for June-August, and it will. I wasn't pushing any notions. Finally, using your argument, why not go back further, say hundreds of thousands of years, that clearly show we were much warmer? Current climate number, imho, are a better way to fairly represent above and below normal temps, all things considered, and apparently the NWS has felt the same way long before issues of warming were ever discussed. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Different locations over a 138 year period is far from a fair comparison. It was literally a different old around Harrisburg 20 years+ ago, let alone 138 years.

This reminds me of an old friend of mine. When we were in college and I used to go out "carousing" looking for women, he would always remind me that "if a girl doesn't meet your standards, lower them." That’s what you're doing by changing the standards by which to determine temp anomalies. Why don't we go back further then and use ice core samples? We look pretty cool to me based on times further back. But you'll have your reasons I'm sure. 

I've made my point, so anything further is unnecessary. 

 

The standards or 30 year climate normals originated back in a stable climate when there weren’t significant temperature rises with every new 10 year update.

This is why your area had the warmest summer on record back in 2020 at 77.9° and the departure was only +2.9° using 1991-2020 climate normals. Under the 1951-1980 climate normals it would have been a +4.3 summer.

It’s why NOAA is exploring using alternatives to the climate normals.

Many organizations just set the climate normals to an earlier period before the climate began to rapidly warm so the departures more closely resemble the actual temperatures.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/02/updated-yardstick-begs-question-whats-normal-in-a-changing-climate/

Time Series Summary for Middletown-Harrisburg Area, PA (ThreadEx) Top 10 warmest summers using dense rank sorting for temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2020	77.9	0
2	1966	77.6	0
3	2016	77.3	0
4	2021	77.1	0
5	2024	76.9	0
6	2010	76.8	0
7	2022	76.7	0
-	1999	76.7	0
8	2019	76.5	0
-	2005	76.5	0
9	1991	76.4	0
10	1900	76.2	0

[snowman19]

@Gawx

[brooklynwx99]

I'm a fan of the EP Nina look showing up. most seasonals keep the EP Nina into the winter, which would bode well for EC cold/snow prospects overall

[snowman19]

[GaWx]

 Today’s Euro Weekly run not only has the most active 9/15-21 ACE yet, it is the 1st run with 9/22-8 and that is even more active than 9/15-21! It has the quietest Sep week as the 1st one and the noisiest week as the 4th one. That resembles Sep of 2024 somewhat because then the quietest weeks of ACE in Sep were the 1st (0) and 3rd (0) while the 4th had the noisiest by far with AN ACE (18.1). The 2nd had 6.1.

Today’s EW ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo
1-7: 4.5 (.3)
8-14: 11.3 (.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)

 So, today’s vs climo is despite a very quiet 1st week and still BN 2nd week progging the 1st 4 weeks of Sept at 58.6, which compares to only 24.2 in 2024 and ~the active 30 year climo of ~60.

To compare, look at what I posted on 8/27/24:

Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”:

- Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline.

- Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow.

 

@PhiEaglesfan712If this EW run were to verify closely, the ACE through 9/30 would be ~100 and keep the door open for a 140+ season total as 30% of Octs-Novs over the last 30 years were 40+.

[snowman19]

According to some, we are at solar minimum lol

[so_whats_happening]

2 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weekly run not only has the most active 9/15-21 ACE yet, it is the 1st run with 9/22-8 and that is even more active than 9/15-21! It has the quietest Sep week as the 1st one and the noisiest week as the 4th one. That resembles Sep of 2024 somewhat because then the quietest weeks of ACE in Sep were the 1st (0) and 3rd (0) while the 4th had the noisiest by far with AN ACE (18.1). The 2nd had 6.1.

Today’s EW ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo
1-7: 4.5 (.3)
8-14: 11.3 (.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)

 So, today’s vs climo is despite a very quiet 1st week and still BN 2nd week progging the 1st 4 weeks of Sept at 58.6, which compares to only 24.2 in 2024 and ~the active 30 year climo of ~60.

To compare, look at what I posted on 8/27/24:

Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”:

- Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline.

- Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow.

 

@PhiEaglesfan712If this EW run were to verify closely, the ACE through 9/30 would be ~100 and keep the door open for a 140+ season total as 30% of Octs-Novs over the last 30 years were 40+.

Looks like we circle 1-2-3 again coming up through the last 3 weeks of September, some even show 8 with the cool neutral look we currently have (we wlll see). Should open up the door for a handful of systems but where we go into October will leave us with clues going into winter. 

Definitely weird we would have a slow season if we are indeed in a Nina state as well as getting recurves typically not a normal occurrence of being in a Nina state and a cool ending to summer also does not add up either.

 

[snowman19]

Looks like we circle 1-2-3 again coming up through the last 3 weeks of September, some even show 8 with the cool neutral look we currently have (we wlll see). Should open up the door for a handful of systems but where we go into October will leave us with clues going into winter. 
Definitely weird we would have a slow season if we are indeed in a Nina state as well as getting recurves typically not a normal occurrence of being in a Nina state and a cool ending to summer also does not add up either.
 

With the -IOD gaining strength, it would seemingly support MJO convection in the IO and Maritime Continent, not the Pacific

[snowman19]

@Gawx We are almost at the 290+ sunspot peak we saw last summer
 

[GaWx]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

@Gawx We are almost at the 290+ sunspot peak we saw last summer
 

Impressive spike!

So, I just looked at SIDC, which shows that 290 on 7/18/24, and see “only” 204 for today’s early avg:

https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/EISN/EISN_current.txt
 

2025 08 26 2025.651 187  21.4  26  29
2025 08 27 2025.653 204  15.3   9  13

Let’s see where the full 8/27/25 avg ends up.

[bluewave]

11 hours ago, GaWx said:

 Today’s Euro Weekly run not only has the most active 9/15-21 ACE yet, it is the 1st run with 9/22-8 and that is even more active than 9/15-21! It has the quietest Sep week as the 1st one and the noisiest week as the 4th one. That resembles Sep of 2024 somewhat because then the quietest weeks of ACE in Sep were the 1st (0) and 3rd (0) while the 4th had the noisiest by far with AN ACE (18.1). The 2nd had 6.1.

Today’s EW ACE Sep progs vs very active 20 yr climo
1-7: 4.5 (.3)
8-14: 11.3 (.7)
15-21: 20.4 (1.3)
22-28: 22.4 (1.6)

 So, today’s vs climo is despite a very quiet 1st week and still BN 2nd week progging the 1st 4 weeks of Sept at 58.6, which compares to only 24.2 in 2024 and ~the active 30 year climo of ~60.

To compare, look at what I posted on 8/27/24:

Today’s Euro Weeklies could be nicknamed “A Tale of Two Seasons”:

- Weeks 1-3 (9/2-22): remain only at ~50% of climo overall. These haven’t changed much for days other than a gradual decline.

- Week 4 (9/23-29/new week “on the block”): the first forecast for that week is for 120% of climo and it follows the prior week’s modest 70%. So, it’s seeing some kind of sudden change. If it were a reversion to climo, it would be only at 100%, not 120%. Also, this is the first time there has been any week at 120%+ since the 8/16 run. Will be interesting to follow.

 

@PhiEaglesfan712If this EW run were to verify closely, the ACE through 9/30 would be ~100 and keep the door open for a 140+ season total as 30% of Octs-Novs over the last 30 years were 40+.

Yeah, late seasons have been very active since Sandy back in 2012. 

 

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, late seasons have been very active since Sandy back in 2012. 

 

 

The problem with that is many of those seasons were active early, or at least showed signs. 2022 and 2015 are the only one's you could make an argument against, and even those had activity in early September. If the first half of September is not active, then chances are, it just isn't meant to be this year. And that's okay, not every hurricane season is going to be active. 

Look at 1992 after Andrew, nothing happened in the first half of September, and the rest of the season didn't have a major storm (just 2 Category 2's, in Bonnie and Charley in late September, but nothing close to being as big as Andrew).

Erin is almost certainly going to be the big event of the season. It's possible we get a second big storm (like we did in 2007 with Felix), but we're not going to churn out major storm after major storm like in 2005.

[bluewave]

5 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

The problem with that is many of those seasons were active early, or at least showed signs. 2022 and 2015 are the only one's you could make an argument against, and even those had activity in early September. If the first half of September is not active, then chances are, it just isn't meant to be this year. And that's okay, not every hurricane season is going to be active. 

Look at 1992 after Andrew, nothing happened in the first half of September, and the rest of the season didn't have a major storm (just 2 Category 2's, in Bonnie and Charley in late September, but nothing close to being as big as Andrew).

Erin is almost certainly going to be the big event of the season. It's possible we get a second big storm (like we did in 2007 with Felix), but we're not going to churn out major storm after major storm like in 2005.

I would tend to think right now that the ACE finishes lower than the 161 reading we got for 2024. But there are some similarities to last year so far. 2024 featured hurricane Beryl going CAT 5 in early July. Then no major hurricanes until late September. This year we got the CAT 5 Erin in mid-August and now it looks like perhaps no majors into at least mid-September. So my guess is that Erin won’t be the only major this year. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

24 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I would tend to think right now that the ACE finishes lower than the 161 reading we got for 2024. But there are some similarities to last year so far. 2024 featured hurricane Beryl going CAT 5 in early July. Then no major hurricanes until late September. This year we got the CAT 5 Erin in mid-August and now it looks like perhaps no majors into at least mid-September. So my guess is that Erin won’t be the only major this year. 

With Beryl, we were still in early July, and had a lot of hurricane season left. We're now at about the time of the season of Andrew and Felix, in 1992 and 2007, respectively. I'm pretty sure people thought there would be more major hurricanes after that point, especially after Felix in 2007 with a developing strong la nina. Point is, you just never know. Yes, there will be more storms, but as we saw in 1992 and 2007, it's very possible that none of them are major.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

505dm over the Arctic circle today! It phases into a +NAO/+AO in the next few days, which is usual for the pattern this year since May. Cold +AO/+NAO H5 continues.. 

[snowman19]

@Bluewave

[40/70 Benchmark]

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2025/08/preview-of-extra-tropical-pacific-for.html

[40/70 Benchmark]

Matches my polar composite well.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

I'm a fan of the EP Nina look showing up. most seasonals keep the EP Nina into the winter, which would bode well for EC cold/snow prospects overall

Yea, lock that. Been obvious for awhile. I snowman will point out how it doesn't matter when its weak, but it does when you have an easterly QBO near solar max reenforcing a weak/east-based cool ENSO regime.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 8/20/2025 at 7:27 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

this is what i'm thinking for the winter pattern this year when looking at preliminary analogs. overall, I think we'll be looking at a winter with lots of ridging over the WC (or least nearby), likely pushing poleward into AK and north of Siberia, promoting -EPO and +PNA. this will displace the TPV SE at times, and although a SE ridge likely shows in the mean, it's likely suppressed for a decent portion of the winter

Dec can feature some blocking, aided by the -QBO. I think the blocking certainly eases by Feb, but even then, the propensity for +PNA/-EPO should prevent a full on torch in the East. Jan is likely more +PNA driven, becoming warmer late in the month

my main reasoning is that we're going to enter into a cool neutral ENSO state (weak Nina per RONI), and it's increasingly likely that the Nina influence will be more east-based, allowing for more ridging into the WC and AK rather than a flat ridge over the NPAC. we're also looking at high solar, a -QBO, and a -PDO

overall, my top analogs are 2024-25, 2021-22, 2001-02, and 1989-90 (I don't think we'll see an AK vortex like 2001-02, but it scored well with ENSO, PDO, and solar). I think the best analog for this winter is last winter, as the ENSO, PDO, solar, and similarities to last summer's pattern are hard to ignore

 

temps are slightly AN in the east with solidly BN precip (though it shouldn't be quite as dry as last winter)

Looks just like my polar and Pac H5 composites.