2025-2026 ENSO

[FPizz]

54 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Right. And those ups and downs during the month create the average.  Considering the ridge location this summer to Harrisburg, those numbers are no big deal for June and July and August will negate much of the AN anomalies. I don't know what Phl had since it's not mby.

Philly has double digit more 90 degree days (17!) than Trenton which is only 30 or so miles away.  Their highs have been off according to even Mets on another Philly centric board.

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I am using current climate numbers to determine above or below normal just as previous NWS records established above or below normal readings. That's their protocol. If you want to cherry pick by using or considering different periods to push an agenda, that's fine. But don't be shocked or appalled when someone else points out that's what you're doing. Like it or not, the numbers I posted for MDT are what will be used by the NWS. 

LOL at using hot button terms like agenda, shocked, and appalled. Try taking a step back and just looking at the actual data instead putting a strong emotional charge on it. Your area is further south than where the strongest Northeast warmth has occurred this summer. 

MDT is currently at an average summer temperature of 75.9°. That is the 13th warmest average summer temperature. You guys should slip back several spots with the cooler pattern to close out the summer. The current departure is only +0.7°. So the actual summer will finish up with top 20 warmth even if the departure isn’t that high. 
 

 

 

[snowman19]

This is the strongest -PMM we have seen in some time. This is only going to enhance La Niña development. The new run on the normally severely warm biased BOM model has begun a cave to a La Niña now

“Highlights

•
The PMM index defined in this study removes the signals of ENSO more effectively.
•
A positive PMM is weakly related to El Niño, while a negative PMM is more convincingly related to La Niña.”

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0169809524000917

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

LOL at using hot button terms like agenda, shocked, and appalled. Try taking a step back and just looking at the actual data instead putting a strong emotional charge on it. Your area is further south than where the strongest Northeast warmth has occurred this summer. 

MDT is currently at an average summer temperature of 75.9°. That is the 13th warmest average summer temperature. You guys should slip back several spots with the cooler pattern to close out the summer. The current departure is only +0.7°. So the actual summer will finish up with top 20 warmth even if the departure isn’t that high. 
 

 

 

MDT's summer records start in 1992. That means, including this year, there are 34 years of summer records. Assuming your calculation is correct, a "top 20th warmth" is just like saying the 14th coolest. So why didn't you say it like that? I think you made my point. 

[Cobalt]

49 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If you want to cherry pick by using or considering different periods to push an agenda, that's fine.

Are you telling me that this wording

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Odd. Harrisburg (MDT) is already -1.6 for August thru yesterday and will end the month much lower. June was only +1.3 and July +2.5. The 3 summer months could easily end averaging barely AN.

Wasn't meant to push any sort of agenda that this Summer was not as warm as others claim? bluewave brought up that you're comparing against the warmest 30 year average, which is a completely valid criticism. From what I can tell June's "only +1.3" is 13th warmest out of 136 years.

Words like "only" or "barely AN" are only applicable if we isolate the current 30 year average as the baseline for absolute warmth or cold. That is way more narrow of a scope than what bluewave did, comparing to the entire range of years. Comparing against 136 years is a way better benchmark than just 30.

 

 

 

 

[bluewave]

33 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

MDT's summer records start in 1992. That means, including this year, there are 34 years of summer records. Assuming your calculation is correct, a "top 20th warmth" is just like saying the 14th coolest. So why didn't you say it like that? I think you made my point. 

I was using the extended climate record for your area which started back in 1888.

Past Climatological Periods At Middletown-Harrisburg Area in Middletown-Harrisburg, PA (MDTthr)
Period of record: 1888-07-01 to 2025-08-25 (current) - 138 Year(s)

 

Time Series Summary for Middletown-Harrisburg Area, PA (ThreadEx) 20 warmest summers dense rank sorting by temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2020	77.9	0
2	1966	77.6	0
3	2016	77.3	0
4	2021	77.1	0
5	2024	76.9	0
6	2010	76.8	0
7	2022	76.7	0
-	1999	76.7	0
8	2019	76.5	0
-	2005	76.5	0
9	1991	76.4	0
10	1900	76.2	0
11	1943	76.1	0
12	2002	76.0	0
13	2025	75.9	6
14	2011	75.6	0
-	1995	75.6	0
15	1994	75.5	0
16	2018	75.4	0
-	1955	75.4	0
-	1949	75.4	0
17	1993	75.3	0
18	2012	75.2	0
-	2006	75.2	0
-	1988	75.2	0
19	1974	75.0	0
-	1973	75.0	0
-	1939	75.0	0
20	2015	74.9	0
-	1952	74.9	0

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

I was using the extended climate record for your area which started back in 1888.

Past Climatological Periods At Middletown-Harrisburg Area in Middletown-Harrisburg, PA (MDTthr)
Period of record: 1888-07-01 to 2025-08-25 (current) - 138 Year(s)

 

Time Series Summary for Middletown-Harrisburg Area, PA (ThreadEx) 20 warmest summers dense rank sorting by temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2020	77.9	0
2	1966	77.6	0
3	2016	77.3	0
4	2021	77.1	0
5	2024	76.9	0
6	2010	76.8	0
7	2022	76.7	0
-	1999	76.7	0
8	2019	76.5	0
-	2005	76.5	0
9	1991	76.4	0
10	1900	76.2	0
11	1943	76.1	0
12	2002	76.0	0
13	2025	75.9	6
14	2011	75.6	0
-	1995	75.6	0
15	1994	75.5	0
16	2018	75.4	0
-	1955	75.4	0
-	1949	75.4	0
17	1993	75.3	0
18	2012	75.2	0
-	2006	75.2	0
-	1988	75.2	0
19	1974	75.0	0
-	1973	75.0	0
-	1939	75.0	0
20	2015	74.9	0
-	1952	74.9	0

 

 

 

Different locations over a 138 year period is far from a fair comparison. It was literally a different old around Harrisburg 20 years+ ago, let alone 138 years.

This reminds me of an old friend of mine. When we were in college and I used to go out "carousing" looking for women, he would always remind me that "if a girl doesn't meet your standards, lower them." That’s what you're doing by changing the standards by which to determine temp anomalies. Why don't we go back further then and use ice core samples? We look pretty cool to me based on times further back. But you'll have your reasons I'm sure. 

I've made my point, so anything further is unnecessary. 

 

[Cobalt]

54 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That’s what you're doing by changing the standards by which to determinetemp anomalies.

Is that not exactly you're doing by using just the years within the 1991-2020 average and nothing else? If not changing the standards, it's focusing only on the ones that push your notions. You're dropping 100 of the 136 years of records because they make this year's averages seem warmer by comparison.

Would you look back on June 2025's +1.3 as a "cooler" month just because the 2001-2030 averages might place it as a -0.2, even if it ranks 20th warmest of 136 years? 

[winter_warlock]

On 8/20/2025 at 4:59 PM, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

^Winter NAO prediction based on May-Sept N. Atlantic SSTAs will probably come in weakly positive. 

Add to it that we are in the period of 0 to +4 years after a Solar Max, which has a +0.2 Winter NAO correlation, or 55% of the time. 

Then the NAO has run positive 6 straight months, and the AO has run positive 5 straight months.. that rolls forward to a +0.2 Winter +NAO correlation. 

All-in-all, that gives us about a +0.3-4 correlation right now for +NAO Winter (DJFM), or 60-62% chance of happening, based on those 3 indicators. Because of the decadal cycle, and 83% of Winter months have been +NAO since 11-12, I would say the current odds are more like 65% chance it is a +NAO Winter. 

 Doesn't matter. I've seen us have a big -NAO and still get absolutely nothing out of it. And I've seen us have a +NAO and us get snowstorms out of it.  I think the NAO   doesn't matter as much as it's hyped.. in my opinion 

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Cobalt said:

Is that not exactly you're doing by using just the years within the 1991-2020 average and nothing else? If not changing the standards, it's focusing only on the ones that push your notions. You're dropping 100 of the 136 years of records because they make this year's averages seem warmer by comparison.

Would you look back on June 2025's +1.3 as a "cooler" month just because the 2001-2030 averages might place it as a -0.2, even if it ranks 20th warmest of 136 years? 

No. First, the 136 are readings from different locations and elevations than MDT with a period that includes very rural times. My family used to drive from MD to Wilkes-Barre every summer in the mid and late 1960's, driving through Harrisburg to get there, and it looks nothing like it did then. I can only imagine how much more rural it was before the 1960's. Second, my original post said MDT would likely end up slightly AN under the current climate period for June-August, and it will. I wasn't pushing any notions. Finally, using your argument, why not go back further, say hundreds of thousands of years, that clearly show we were much warmer? Current climate number, imho, are a better way to fairly represent above and below normal temps, all things considered, and apparently the NWS has felt the same way long before issues of warming were ever discussed. 

[bluewave]

3 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Different locations over a 138 year period is far from a fair comparison. It was literally a different old around Harrisburg 20 years+ ago, let alone 138 years.

This reminds me of an old friend of mine. When we were in college and I used to go out "carousing" looking for women, he would always remind me that "if a girl doesn't meet your standards, lower them." That’s what you're doing by changing the standards by which to determine temp anomalies. Why don't we go back further then and use ice core samples? We look pretty cool to me based on times further back. But you'll have your reasons I'm sure. 

I've made my point, so anything further is unnecessary. 

 

The standards or 30 year climate normals originated back in a stable climate when there weren’t significant temperature rises with every new 10 year update.

This is why your area had the warmest summer on record back in 2020 at 77.9° and the departure was only +2.9° using 1991-2020 climate normals. Under the 1951-1980 climate normals it would have been a +4.3 summer.

It’s why NOAA is exploring using alternatives to the climate normals.

Many organizations just set the climate normals to an earlier period before the climate began to rapidly warm so the departures more closely resemble the actual temperatures.

https://yaleclimateconnections.org/2021/02/updated-yardstick-begs-question-whats-normal-in-a-changing-climate/

Time Series Summary for Middletown-Harrisburg Area, PA (ThreadEx) Top 10 warmest summers using dense rank sorting for temperature 
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1	2020	77.9	0
2	1966	77.6	0
3	2016	77.3	0
4	2021	77.1	0
5	2024	76.9	0
6	2010	76.8	0
7	2022	76.7	0
-	1999	76.7	0
8	2019	76.5	0
-	2005	76.5	0
9	1991	76.4	0
10	1900	76.2	0