2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Rough guesstimate depending on just how strong the system gets coming up here but we should get close to about 30 ACE on the year which for the date will be just slightly above average, have 6.6 right now.

Will be interesting if we get any follow up storms after this one to end out the month.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic

If Erin reaches cat 4 and sustains it for a couple of days or at least on and off, I think that getting close to 30 total ACE just for Erin would be attainable.

@mitchnick

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

If Erin reaches cat 4 and sustains it for a couple of days or at least on and off, I think that getting close to 30 total ACE just for Erin would be attainable.

@mitchnick

Seems reasonable the atmosphere looks really nice coming up and in a good warm pocket. Should at least get 3 days of major hurricane status.

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Seems reasonable the atmosphere looks really nice coming up and in a good warm pocket. Should at least get 3 days of major hurricane status.

IF that happens, the seasonal ACE would reach ~34 as of 8/22. If then another multiday hurricane were to closely follow Erin like the GFS/GEFS are suggesting could occur, having 50ish ACE by the end of August would be a reasonable possibility especially considering there could easily abe an additional weaker storm or two, which would out 2025 notably above the normal ACE through August.

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Interesting change of events on the weeklies for the last week of August starting on the 25th. Top map is from the 8/3 run, middle map is from last Friday, the 8th, and the bottom map is from yesterday. Could be fun if this kind of trend continues thru winter on the weeklies...or suck (for some) if it goes the other way.

Below normal temps to end August sometimes help kick off that earliest wave of Fall color (beyond the stressed trees already showing some color). I am SOO ready.

[GaWx]

On 8/3/2025 at 7:57 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

2013-14 and 2014-15 came after low ACE seasons. Low ACE season is pretty much locked unless we get a Hurricane Andrew, and even then, we'll probably still finish below average in ACE. (1992 finished with 76 ACE despite having Hurricane Andrew.)

I feel like the hand has been dealt. The East Pacific is having a very active year, while the Atlantic has been very quiet. It's August now, and that's probably not going to suddenly shift gears at this point. (If the Atlantic was going to get active, we would have seen it by now. Even 2004 got started with Alex  late in July. We're already past that, and this season has been completely blank.) The question now is if the Atlantic will get that big storm (like Andrew in 1992) or if we're going to get shut out (like in 2013).

 

On 8/6/2025 at 11:02 PM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, if it was early June, I would have entertained the thought of an active Atlantic hurricane season. But we're now in early August. If we were going to have an active hurricane season, we would have seen something by now. (Even last year we had Beryl.) Instead, we are at about 2.5 ACE.

Yes, I can see a big storm like Hurricane Andrew hitting at some point in the season, but that will be an outlier on the season, just as Andrew was in 1992 (another year that was very active in the Pacific, not so much in the Atlantic). For the most part, the Pacific is going to be active, and the Atlantic will be rather quiet. We're close to halfway on the hurricane season. The tiger isn't going to change stripes at this point in the season.

155 ACE has very low probability, and would be like if the Rockies made the playoffs this year. 

 

On 7/31/2025 at 6:47 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

At this point, we're going to need a Hurricane Andrew to even come close to 100 ACE. Absent of that, <70 ACE is pretty much a lock. The 2025 hurricane season has shown its hand.

The difference between last year and this year is that the Pacific is very active. Also, at this point last year, we already had Hurricane Beryl. It feels like 2013 all over again. People just kept waiting for the season to turn active that year, and it never did.

 

On 8/5/2025 at 12:11 PM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

lol, 155 ACE has zero chance of happening. We would have to almost match 2005 the rest of the way to make that happen. We all know that's not going to happen. If anything, they need to adjust lower.

We might have an active August (or maybe even one big storm), but the pattern isn't going to suddenly flip and make this August-October/November somewhere close to the most active ever.

 

On 7/25/2025 at 6:06 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, I like knew in mid-June this was going to be a low ACE season (and it's pretty funny this is happening on the 20th anniversary of the most active season ever). A 2013-type season with just TS/C1 storms is looking more and more likely with each passing day.

 Due to Erin ACE is now rapidly rising with 2025 about to cross median for the date (of last 75) and should cross mean tomorrow. 2025 should reach top 20 for the date by Mon and top 15 or higher by Tue or Wed.


@snowman19@mitchnick

[snowman19]

 Due to Erin ACE is now rapidly rising with 2025 about to cross median for the date (of last 75) and should cross mean tomorrow. 2025 should reach top 20 for the date by Mon and top 15 or higher by Tue or Wed.


[mention=13098]snowman19[/mention][mention=821]mitchnick[/mention]

I don’t think there will be any debate on that indisputable fact. The question remains, how will this tropical season finish in terms of ACE and named storms, all added up, said and done, on November 30th, which is what really counts. There are signs that at least early-mid September will become quiet again. Despite the current uptick in ACE to this point with Erin, I still have very serious doubts that this 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will end up above normal in ACE or in named storms

[PhiEaglesfan712]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I don’t think there will be any debate on that indisputable fact. The question remains, how will this tropical season finish in terms of ACE and named storms, all added up, said and done, on November 30th, which is what really counts. There are signs that at least early-mid September will become quiet again. Despite the current uptick in ACE to this point with Erin, I still have very serious doubts that this 2025 Atlantic hurricane season will end up above normal in ACE or in named storms

Yeah, don't forget after Andrew in 1992, we didn't get another major hurricane the rest of the way. We may get some more storms, some may even be a C1 or C2, but the odds are that we aren't going to get a storm of Erin's strength the rest of the way.

[GaWx]

46 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Yeah, don't forget after Andrew in 1992, we didn't get another major hurricane the rest of the way. We may get some more storms, some may even be a C1 or C2, but the odds are that we aren't going to get a storm of Erin's strength the rest of the way.

1. 2024 (161 ACE) didn’t get 2nd major til late Sep.

2. 2023 (146) didn’t have 1st MH til 8/20.

3. 2021 (146) 1st MH 8/20.

4. 2020 (180) 8/26

5. 2019 (132) 8/30

6. 2018 (133) 9/10

7. 2017 (225) 8/25

8. 2016 (141) 8/30

———

 2025 got 1st MH on 8/16. Seasons with 1st MH by 8/16: 2024, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1995…only 7 of last 30 (23%).

Edit: We don’t need another storm even near Erin’s incredible strength to end up with an AN ACE season.

@snowman19

[snowman19]

1. 2024 (161 ACE) didn’t get 2nd major til late Sep.
2. 2023 (146) didn’t have 1st MH til 8/20.
3. 2021 (146) 1st MH 8/20.
4. 2020 (180) 8/26
5. 2019 (132) 8/30
6. 2018 (133) 9/10
7. 2017 (225) 8/25
8. 2016 (141) 8/30
———
 2025 got 1st MH on 8/16. Seasons with 1st MH by 8/16: 2024, 2008, 2005, 2004, 2000, 1996, 1995…only 7 of last 30 (23%).
Edit: We don’t need another storm even near Erin’s incredible strength to end up with an AN ACE season.
[mention=13098]snowman19[/mention]

I’m not saying it CAN’T happen, I’m going with my gut and what has transpired thus far/what is projected to transpire in early-mid September. It is my strong OPINION that this is not going to be an above normal ACE season. Can I be wrong? Sure

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

I’m not saying it CAN’T happen, I’m going with my gut and what has transpired thus far/what is projected to transpire in early-mid September. It is my strong OPINION that this is not going to be an above normal ACE season. Can I be wrong? Sure

I know some memorable winters were on the heels of decent ACE numbers, but I  thought I read somewhere, could've been on this Board, high ACE numbers are no guarantee for a decent east coast winter either. From what little I've paid attention to hurricane activity as a clue to east coast winters, it seems a large number of recurves was a better indicator if you're looking for a decent east coast winter. 

Is that right? Anyone?

[BlizzardWx]

What is the reasoning for why ACE would matter so much for the winter pattern? It's kind of hard to accept at face value that any heat transfer now would matter say 3-6 months later. It also seems like the ACE calculation is flawed since it doesn't take storm size into account. A little storm like this is treated the same as a much broader one right? 

[snowman19]

What is the reasoning for why ACE would matter so much for the winter pattern? It's kind of hard to accept at face value that any heat transfer now would matter say 3-6 months later. It also seems like the ACE calculation is flawed since it doesn't take storm size into account. A little storm like this is treated the same as a much broader one right? 

There was/is a very questionable theory that high Atlantic ACE with recurving hurricanes during a -ENSO results in -NAO blocking in winter. I have seen zero hard, convincing evidence that high Atlantic ACE with recurving hurricanes during -ENSOs (La Nina’s/cold-neutrals) cause -NAO blocking in winter. JB has been the biggest pusher of this unproven theory ever since the 1995-96 winter because of the ‘95 Atlantic hurricane season that preceded it

[BlizzardWx]

13 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

There was/is a very questionable theory that high Atlantic ACE with recurving hurricanes during a -ENSO results in -NAO blocking in winter. I have seen zero hard, convincing evidence that high Atlantic ACE with recurving hurricanes during -ENSOs (La Nina’s/cold-neutrals) cause -NAO blocking in winter. JB has been the biggest pusher of this unproven theory ever since the 1995-96 winter because of the ‘95 Atlantic hurricane season that preceded it

The only case I've seen that sort of supported it was in the Pacific in maybe 2014-2015 or so. I recall numerous fall typhoons directly helped to pump up a big western USA block that just kind of persisted most of the fall and winter after it set up. Of course, maybe that was going to happen anyway, but at least the connection was more obvious. To me, if the ACE connection is real, it would probably matter where the ACE is accumulating, as it could be indicative of something larger in the background state. That would mean its a symptom but not a cause. I could at least entertain that. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Hard to believe we ever had -AMO, but for 100 years the Atlantic did average 9 named storms per year.. We are already on number 5 with moderately above average SSTAs. 

This is the 3rd year in a row with top 1% Rapid Intensification where a certain storm jumped over 12-18 hours:

2023 was Lee

2024 was Milton

2025 Erin

I mean like 75mph to 160mph overnight jumps. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Highest Atlantic Hurricane ACE seasons (2016 and before uses NOAA and Wunderground data, 2017 and later uses NOAA data only):

1            2005      247.65 (winter of 2005-06: cold December, very warm January, near normal temps in February, but a large snowfall on the 11th)

2            1933      235.785 (winter of 1933-34: backloaded winter, snowy February and March, coldest February on record)

3            1893      231.0738 (winter of 1893-94: near normal temps, near normal snowfall, with the bulk in February)

4            1995      227.5513 (winter of 1995-96: wall-to-wall cold and snow, most famous for the Blizzard on January 7)

5            1950      227.1413 (winter of 1950-51: very low snow winter, near normal temps)

6            2004      226.94 (winter of 2004-05: slightly above average snowfall, with notable snowstorm on January 22nd, near normal temps)

7            1926      225.7788 (winter of 1926-27: near normal temps, below average snowfall)

8            2017      224.8775 (winter of 2017-18: slightly above average snowfall, due to snowiest March on record with slightly above average temps due to a near record warm February)          

9            1961      196.95 (winter of 1961-62: backloaded winter, snowy February and March, below average temps)

10          1998      181.8838 (winter of 1998-99: above average temps, below average snowfall)

11          2020      180.3725 (winter of 2020-21: slightly above average temps, near normal snowfall, with th bulk in February)

12          1955      178.585 (winter of 1955-56: below average temps due to cold December, near normal snowfall, with March snowstorm)

 

[FPizz]

7 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Highest Atlantic Hurricane ACE seasons (2016 and before uses NOAA and Wunderground data, 2017 and later uses NOAA data only):

1            2005      247.65 (winter of 2005-06: cold December, very warm January, near normal temps in February, but a large snowfall on the 11th)

2            1933      235.785 (winter of 1933-34: backloaded winter, snowy February and March, coldest February on record)

3            1893      231.0738 (winter of 1893-94: near normal temps, near normal snowfall, with the bulk in February)

4            1995      227.5513 (winter of 1995-96: wall-to-wall cold and snow, most famous for the Blizzard on January 7)

5            1950      227.1413 (winter of 1950-51: very low snow winter, near normal temps)

6            2004      226.94 (winter of 2004-05: slightly above average snowfall, with notable snowstorm on January 22nd, near normal temps)

7            1926      225.7788 (winter of 1926-27: near normal temps, below average snowfall)

8            2017      224.8775 (winter of 2017-18: slightly above average snowfall, due to snowiest March on record with slightly above average temps due to a near record warm February)          

9            1961      196.95 (winter of 1961-62: backloaded winter, snowy February and March, below average temps)

10          1998      181.8838 (winter of 1998-99: above average temps, below average snowfall)

11          2020      180.3725 (winter of 2020-21: slightly above average temps, near normal snowfall, with th bulk in February)

12          1955      178.585 (winter of 1955-56: below average temps due to cold December, near normal snowfall, with March snowstorm)

 

Is that for Philly?

[PhiEaglesfan712]

30 minutes ago, FPizz said:

Is that for Philly?

Yes, but most places in the mid-Atlantic/northeast should have followed a similar pattern (especially with temperature).