2025-2026 ENSO

[GaWx]

15 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Rough guesstimate depending on just how strong the system gets coming up here but we should get close to about 30 ACE on the year which for the date will be just slightly above average, have 6.6 right now.

Will be interesting if we get any follow up storms after this one to end out the month.

https://tropical.atmos.colostate.edu/Realtime/index.php?loc=northatlantic

If Erin reaches cat 4 and sustains it for a couple of days or at least on and off, I think that getting close to 30 total ACE just for Erin would be attainable.

@mitchnick

[so_whats_happening]

1 hour ago, GaWx said:

If Erin reaches cat 4 and sustains it for a couple of days or at least on and off, I think that getting close to 30 total ACE just for Erin would be attainable.

@mitchnick

Seems reasonable the atmosphere looks really nice coming up and in a good warm pocket. Should at least get 3 days of major hurricane status.

[GaWx]

25 minutes ago, so_whats_happening said:

Seems reasonable the atmosphere looks really nice coming up and in a good warm pocket. Should at least get 3 days of major hurricane status.

IF that happens, the seasonal ACE would reach ~34 as of 8/22. If then another multiday hurricane were to closely follow Erin like the GFS/GEFS are suggesting could occur, having 50ish ACE by the end of August would be a reasonable possibility especially considering there could easily abe an additional weaker storm or two, which would out 2025 notably above the normal ACE through August.

[michsnowfreak]

9 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Interesting change of events on the weeklies for the last week of August starting on the 25th. Top map is from the 8/3 run, middle map is from last Friday, the 8th, and the bottom map is from yesterday. Could be fun if this kind of trend continues thru winter on the weeklies...or suck (for some) if it goes the other way.

Below normal temps to end August sometimes help kick off that earliest wave of Fall color (beyond the stressed trees already showing some color). I am SOO ready.