40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 27 minutes ago, snowman19 said: IMO we are more “Niña” than 13-14 was Negligible. I seem to recall you questioning whether there was a discernible difference between ENSO neutral and weak La Nina when people were questioning whether this would become an official La Nina....is that particular take context dependent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 2 hours ago Author Share Posted 2 hours ago 2014 peaked at .52 RONI. I don't see it getting below -1.0 this season. MEI peaked at -0.5....They haven't updated since AM, but I can't imagine that is going to get much lower than the RONI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Negligible. I seem to recall you questioning whether there was a discernible difference between ENSO neutral and weak La Nina when people were questioning whether this would become an official La Nina....is that particular take context dependent?It is negligible yes, but if I’m not mistaken, the MEI is deeper into Niña mode this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhiEaglesfan712 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It is negligible yes, but if I’m not mistaken, the MEI is deeper into Niña mode this year Not really, the MEI peaked at -1.14 in the offseason of 2012-13 and 2013-14. It does seem pretty odd, though, since the RONI and ONI both were in the -0.4 range during that time, and neither season produced a la nina on the MEI. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 12 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It is negligible yes, but if I’m not mistaken, the MEI is deeper into Niña mode this year Don't get me wrong....I try to be pretty objective and back you up on plenty of takes, but you seem to be reaching here to eliminate that season from consideration altogether. The MEI hasn't been update since May, so perhaps you are mistaken. The RONI is -.40 and rising.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Don't get me wrong....I try to be pretty objective and back you up on plenty of takes, but you seem to be reaching here to eliminate that season from consideration altogether. The MEI hasn't been update since May, so perhaps you are mistaken. The RONI is -.40 and rising.... My main reason is the PDO which can obviously change between now and December. Maybe I should have been clearer, not a total elimination, but it would be the very last on my analog list as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Author Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, snowman19 said: My main reason is the PDO which can obviously change between now and December. Maybe I should have been clearer, not a total elimination, but it would be the very last on my analog list as of now Yea, the PDO and PNA part ways relatively frequently, as was the case last season. This is probably why the PNA in many of my analogs isn't as negative as you seem to think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, the PDO and PNA part ways relatively frequently, as was the case last season. This is probably why the PNA in many of my analogs isn't as negative as you seem to think. There has been a new relationship between the -PDO and PNA especially during the 2020s summers. This was our first July streak of 5 consecutive -2 to -4 -PDOs. There has been a very strong +PNA signal leading to the record wildfires, record heat, and drought up in Canada. Past instances of -2 -PDOs in July were more -PNA. My guess is that this is related to the -PDO being more driven by the warmer SST anomalies than the colder ones which used to dominate -PDOs in the past. Recent July -2 to -4 -PDOs have been more +PNA Older -PDO below -2 in July were more -PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted 41 minutes ago Share Posted 41 minutes ago 51 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, the PDO and PNA part ways relatively frequently, as was the case last season. This is probably why the PNA in many of my analogs isn't as negative as you seem to think. My guess is that the PNA is more negative during the winter than last year….2nd year -ENSO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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