2025-2026 ENSO

[40/70 Benchmark]

9 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, unfortunately that storm track inland from the East Coast has become a persistent feature since 18-19. Plus we have seen some version of a highly amplified North Pacific ridge most years since 16-17. Some years the ridge axis lines up more with the Aleutians and other years it’s closer to the West Coast. Either way we never miss an opportunity for the Southeast ridge  to overperform especially near storm time.

I think the NE will fare better if SE Canada is cold.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

17 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 Since ACE is discussed here as a winter forecast factor, the new Euro monthly seasonal forecast has substantially increased from the near 30 year normal of last month’s forecast, which had ~125 ACE, to today’s ~155. The 155 incorporates the 1.5 prior to August, the well AN ~40 that the latest Weeklies have for August, and the well AN 130% of 1993-2024 based climo that today’s new Euro has for Sept+.

lol, 155 ACE has zero chance of happening. We would have to almost match 2005 the rest of the way to make that happen. We all know that's not going to happen. If anything, they need to adjust lower.

We might have an active August (or maybe even one big storm), but the pattern isn't going to suddenly flip and make this August-October/November somewhere close to the most active ever.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

lol, 155 ACE has zero chance of happening. We would have to almost match 2005 the rest of the way to make that happen. We all know that's not going to happen. If anything, they need to adjust lower.

We might have an active August (or maybe even one big storm), but the pattern isn't going to suddenly flip and make this August-October/November somewhere close to the most active ever.

Tend to agree, but I do think it will get rather destructive.

[PhiEaglesfan712]

I do think a destructive storm like Hurricane Andrew is possible, but I feel like the general pattern this year is an active Pacific and a quieter Atlantic. This has a 1992 feel to it.

[mitchnick]

36 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Does the Euro develop La Nina? 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

The CPC monthly page has updated

July was the 6th consecutive month of +NAO. Cumulative NAO value of +3.75 in that time. 

July was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Cumulative AO value of +3.2 in that time. 

It's looking like August may be the 7th consecutive +NAO month. The odds of having 7 consecutive months in either direction at random is 1/64. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The CPC monthly page has updated

July was the 6th consecutive month of +NAO. Cumulative NAO value of +3.75 in that time. 

July was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Cumulative AO value of +3.2 in that time. 

It's looking like August may be the 7th consecutive +NAO month. The odds of having 7 consecutive months in either direction is 1/64. 

Is there any winter correlation for having such a sustained and robust +AO/NAO this time of year?

[brooklynwx99]

ECMWF seasonal is pretty close to what myself and some others are thinking... pretty solid tendency for -EPO early on with the TPV likely displaced into SE Canada at times. also a bit of a signal for blocking early on, too? wouldn't be shocking with the -QBO

sure, it likely ends up 1-2F AN, but nothing prohibitive, and there will be spells where the pattern is actually conducive for snowfall. i'll take it

[bluewave]

22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The CPC monthly page has updated

July was the 6th consecutive month of +NAO. Cumulative NAO value of +3.75 in that time. 

July was the 5th consecutive month of +AO. Cumulative AO value of +3.2 in that time. 

It's looking like August may be the 7th consecutive +NAO month. The odds of having 7 consecutive months in either direction is 1/64. 

Very impressive storm for this time of year with such a strong +NAO vortex.

 

 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

29 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Is there any winter correlation for having such a sustained and robust +AO/NAO this time of year?

It's very interesting! consistency usually dominates. This is the next three 7-month periods for the NAO, going to April 2026. 

US Temps aren't as warm as you would expect

AO is completely different rolled forward - it's not a negative H5 based over Greenland, but over the Arctic circle and north of Alaska!

[mitchnick]

This is pretty much a broad brush from the Euro seasonal because it's NE US, but these monthly temp anomalies are not bad considering the last 10 years if close to being right.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

^They don't often go extreme though. A lot of it is the average error factored in. Compared to the N. Hemisphere, we are about in the middle of the warm anomaly. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

20 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's very interesting! consistency usually dominates. This is the next three 7-month periods for the NAO, going to April 2026. 

US Temps aren't as warm as you would expect

AO is completely different rolled forward - it's not a negative H5 based over Greenland, but over the Arctic circle and north of Alaska!

This fits my early stuff precisely...+NAO with -EPO and some bouts of -AO.

[GaWx]

1 hour ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

lol, 155 ACE has zero chance of happening. We would have to almost match 2005 the rest of the way to make that happen. We all know that's not going to happen. If anything, they need to adjust lower.

We might have an active August (or maybe even one big storm), but the pattern isn't going to suddenly flip and make this August-October/November somewhere close to the most active ever.

 Lol, Aug-Nov doesn’t need to be anywhere near the most active ever to get 2025 to ~155 ACE and certainly wouldn’t even require close to 2005’s ACE the rest of the way, which was 179. We’re now at 2.5, which means 152.5 is needed to get to 155.

2005/1998/99/2017/2004/1961/1995 had 179/178/173/220/216/177/207 more ACE still to go. So, the most active the rest of the season since 1951 (2017’s 220, 2004’s 216, and 1995’s 207) would be 55-67 higher than the 152.5 needed this year to get to 155. Where are you getting your info?

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

This fits my early stuff precisely...+NAO with -EPO and some bouts of -AO.

Yeah, in the NAO roll-forward we would have to get -EPO to balance out those US Temps with such a strong +NAO going on. I just think it's cool how they pick their own unique landing place with the northern latitude trough, not in what's occurring or has occurred, but going forward. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Yeah, in the NAO roll-forward we would have to get -EPO to balance out those US Temps with such a strong +NAO going on. I just think it's cool how they pick their own unique landing place with the northern latitude trough, not in what's occurring or has occurred, but going forward. 

I'll bet the -NAO periods aren't partculary cold because the PNA/EPO will probably flip....so probably still messy events, just more favorable tracks.

[FPizz]

2 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It snowed here 15 times last December through mid January in +PNA.. I will always take a +PNA pattern, I think it's somewhat underestimated. It also has 4x lower coastal SLP correlation vs -PNA. 

We've had a ton of storms slip as well for the past 10 years, not just inland runners.  It just goes to show how lucky we were for a 20 or so year period.  I remember tons of storms modeled less than a week out to hit that slipped off the coast and gave us nada.  Selective memory I guess since nothing came of it but maybe clouds and rough seas.

[GaWx]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

 

Thanks, Mitch.

 This is slightly cooler than the July run, which had ~-0.1 (ASO through NDJ):

This new one has ~-0.3 for August and has trimonths through DJF at ~-0.2. So, it’s ~steady from now through winter though it still tends to have a bit of a warm bias even this late. The implied RONI low would be ~~-0.5 ignoring this warm bias.

@Stormchaserchuck1

[Stormchaserchuck1]

SOI has been solidly negative for the first time in a while, during the last 3 days. This has occurred with the ENSO subsurface cold pool no longer deepening.. the anomalies have moderated from -5c max to -3c max. 

5 Aug 2025	1012.75	1014.10	-18.03	4.89	2.94
4 Aug 2025	1012.63	1014.25	-19.66	4.67	3.20
3 Aug 2025	1013.49	1015.10	-19.60	4.77	3.40

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, GaWx said:

Thanks, Mitch.

 This is slightly cooler than the July run, which had ~-0.1 (ASO through NDJ):

This new one has ~-0.3 for August and has trimonths through DJF at ~-0.2. So, it’s ~steady from now through winter though it still tends to have a bit of a warm bias even this late. The implied RONI low would be ~~-0.5 ignoring this warm bias.

@Stormchaserchuck1

Gonna need a colder boat-

[GaWx]

 The BoM released 8/2/25 has -0.2 for ASO and then rises to near 0.0 for the winter:

 

 Colder boat needed here too probably.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

CPC subsurface continues to be much different from TAO/Triton.. it's holding a warm pool in the western-central subsurface, below the dateline.

 

[mitchnick]

26 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

CPC subsurface continues to be much different from TAO/Triton.. it's holding a warm pool in the western-central subsurface, below the dateline.

 

Every SSTA map is different from the rest. Insane how much they vary and I suspect explains, in part, why long range model solutions vary early on in the forecast period with greater variations later in the forecast periods.